Executive SummaryBack


 

Sponsored by Civic Exchange, Commissioned by the Concern Group on Article 23 of the Basic Law, Conducted by Public Opinion Programme

 
 

July 7, 2003

 
 

Note: Everything carried herewith does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung is responsible for the Public Opinion Programme of the University of Hong Kong.

 
 

On July 1, 500,000 people demonstrated against legislation. On July 5, the government announced three amendments to the proposed legislation, including the removal of the proscription of groups affiliated with bodies banned on the mainland, the introduction of public interest as a defence in connection with the unlawful disclosure of certain official information, and the deletion of the provision which conferred on the police a power to conduct home searches without court warrant during emergency investigations. However, the schedule for passing the bill remained to be July 9. Until the early hours of today, after anticipating the amended bill would not be passed in the Legislative Council, the government finally announced the deferral of the legislation. Has the government satisfied the public's demand?

 
 

Civic Exchange again sponsored the Concern Group on Article 23 of the Basic Law to commission the POP Team to conduct a follow-up survey, in order to gauge people's latest opinion towards the legislation. The main areas of investigation were:

  • The changes in people's support towards CE and the SAR Government after the "July 1 Demonstration" and the government's three amendments;
  • Whether people accepted the government's concessions;
  • People's latest demands.
 
 

The questionnaire was designed by the POP Team independently, without informing any organization, POP Team was fully responsible for the operation and data analysis of this study. The study was a random telephone survey conducted in two stages. Stage one of the survey was conducted between July 2 and 4, 2003, which successfully interviewed 1,046 Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above, with a response rate of 66.3%, while Stage two was conducted between July 4 and 5, 2003, with a sample size of 1,160 respondents and a response rate of 71.0%.

 
 

Results showed that, people's rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa after the "July 1 Demonstration" has dramatically dropped by 8.7 marks, from 43.7 marks in mid-June to 35.0 marks, setting a record low. After the announcement of the three amendments, Tung's rating was 35.4 marks, meaning that the three amendments did not pull him out of his credibility crisis. Moreover, if a general election of the Chief Executive were to be held the following day, and the people had the right to vote, 71% of the respondents would not vote for Tung, only 13% would. Over a month, an increase of 9 percentage points was recorded for those who did not trust Tung.

 
 

With respect to people's satisfaction with the SAR Government, after the "July 1 Demonstration", 65% were dissatisfied, 22% said "half-half", while only 9% were satisfied. The dissatisfaction figure has surged for 12 percentage points from that of mid-June to set another record high.

 
 

As for the Article 23 Legislation, results revealed that, after the government's three concessions, 54% still opposed passing the bill on July 9 as scheduled, only 23% supported such a move. If the legislation for Article 23 was passed, 40% of the respondents said they would continue their struggle in compliance with the law, 16% said they would defy the law.

 
 

Finally, as people began to watch for a change in SARG's leadership after the "July 1 Demonstration", this study has included one question which asked the respondents whether they considered a change in SARG's leadership to be a demand of people who took to the streets. Results indicated that 67% believed that the demand was there, which proved that the issue was on people's agenda.

 
 

There were other questions in the survey, like respondent's perception of the protestors' demands, and actual participation in the demonstration. Because these questions are not relevant to the main theme of this study, they would not be discussed here. Please refer to the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) for details.


Table 1 - Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to the Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate the Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa?
   2-4/7/2003  5/7/2003
   Frequency  Percentage  Frequency  Percentage
  0-9  195   19.1   180   18.9 
  10-19  45   4.4   40   4.1 
  20-29  79   7.7   66   7 
  30-39  175   17.2   160   16.8 
  40-49  79   15.7   149   15.7 
  50  160   20.3   231   24.2 
  51-60  207   7.4   51   5.3 
  61-70  76   3.8   35   3.6 
  71-80  39   1.8   18   1.9 
  81-90  8   0.8   8   0.8 
  91-100  19   1.9   19   2 
  Total  1,020   100   955   100 
  No of raters  1,020      955    
  Base  1,046      1,022^    
  Mean  35      35.4    
  Standard error  0.74      0.76    
  Missing case(s)  26      67    
^ A small number of cases were dropped from the base of this question because it was not included on the first day of the survey.

Table 2 - Trend of CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating
 Date of survey Supporting rate Standard error Total sample No of raters Recognition rate
  5/7/03  35.4   0.8   1,022   955   93.4 
  2-4/7/03  35.0   0.7   1,046   1,020   97.5 
  13-18/6/03  43.7   0.7   1,043   991   95.0 
  3-6/6/03  45.7   0.7   1,027   975   94.9 
  15-20/5/03  44.2   0.7   1,067   1,032   96.7 
  2-7/5/03  41.2   0.7   1,008   957   94.9 
  16-23/4/03  39.5   0.7   1,021   974   95.4 
  4-9/4/03  41.3   0.7   1,066   1,024   96.1 
  17-19/3/03  43.9   0.6   1,068   1,018   95.3 
  12-13/3/03  43.8   0.7   1,040   986   94.8 
  5/3/03  42.8   0.7   1,047   962   91.9 
  1-4/3/03  43.9   0.7   1,035   986   95.3 
  14-18/2/03  45.4   0.7   1,045   995   95.2 
  4-7/2/03  45.6   0.7   1,020   963   94.4 
  23-28/1/03  45.5   0.7   1,050   991   94.4 
  20-23/1/03  45.2   0.7   1,049   1,016   96.9 
  8-9/1/03  47.3   0.7   1,259   1,188   94.4 
  2-7/1/03  46.6   0.7   1,063   1,029   96.8 
  13-18/12/02  47.0   0.7   1,026   971   94.6 
  2-6/12/02  48.0   0.7   1,063   1,026   96.5 
  13-20/11/02  47.4   0.7   1,058   1,011   95.6 
  1-5/11/02  47.1   0.7   1,062   1,013   95.4 
  13-16/10/02  49.2   0.7   1,028   971   94.5 
  2-7/10/02  49.0   0.7   1,006   932   92.6 
  12-17/9/02  48.5   0.7   1,062   991   93.3 
  2-5/9/02  47.7   0.7   1,017   978   96.2 
  14-19/8/02  47.0   0.6   1,018   949   93.2 
  2-7/8/02  48.0   0.6   1,030   970   94.2 
  10-15/7/02  50.1   0.7   1,052   971   92.3 
  2-3/7/02  51.9   0.7   1,068   1,001   93.7 

Chart 1 - Trend of CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating
Trend of CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating

Table 3 - Trend of hypothetical voting on Tung Chee-hwa as the Chief Executive
 Date of survey Yes No Don't know / hard to say Total
  4-5/7/03  13.1   70.9   15.9   100.0 
  3-6/6/03  20.7   61.7   17.7   100.0 
  12-13/3/03  17.0   68.1   14.9   100.0 
  1-4/3/03  20.4   64.0   15.7   100.0 
  20-23/1/03  21.2   61.3   17.5   100.0 
  2-6/12/02  22.9   55.5   21.6   100.0 
  2-5/9/02  25.7   55.2   19.1   100.0 
  10-15/7/02  28.8   51.7   19.6   100.0 
  2-3/7/02  31.5   46.9   21.6   100.0 
  17-19/6/02  30.6   51.5   17.9   100.0 
  4-5/6/02  32.3   45.7   22.0   100.0 
  14-16/5/02  35.3   43.9   20.8   100.0 
  2-7/5/02  39.4   39.7   20.9   100.0 
  15-17/4/02  37.5   42.0   20.5   100.0 
  2-8/4/02  37.8   39.5   22.8   100.0 
  12-13/3/02  43.7   39.9   16.4   100.0 
  1-5/3/02  41.9   38.7   19.4   100.0 
  18-21/2/02  43.1   37.1   19.8   100.0 
  4-6/2/02  47.0   35.8   17.2   100.0 

Chart 2 - Trend of hypothetical voting on Tung Chee-hwa as the Chief Executive
Trend of hypothetical voting on Tung Chee-hwa as the Chief Executive

Table 4 - People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government
 Date of survey Very satisfied Quite satisfied Half-half Not quite satisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know / hard to say Total
  4-5/7/03  1.8   7.4   21.6   33.8   31.4   4.1   100.0 
  13-18/6/03  1.8   15.1   25.5   33.5   20.0   4.0   100.0 
  15-20/5/03  2.3   15.8   26.4   34.4   18.1   3.0   100.0 
  16-23/4/03  0.3   11.3   24.0   37.8   23.0   3.5   100.0 
  17-19/3/03  0.3   11.2   24.9   39.3   19.7   4.5   100.0 
  14-18/2/03  0.6   14.0   25.6   39.5   16.7   3.5   100.0 
  20-23/1/03  1.0   18.3   27.0   36.6   14.0   3.1   100.0 
  13-18/12/02  1.3   15.6   30.2   34.6   13.8   4.4   100.0 
  13-20/11/02  1.4   15.3   27.9   35.7   15.1   4.6   100.0 
  13-16/10/02  0.8   17.9   28.0   39.1   10.7   3.5   100.0 
  12-17/9/02  1.0   15.0   29.3   39.0   11.4   4.3   100.0 
  14-19/8/02  0.9   14.6   26.4   41.4   10.7   5.9   100.0 
  2-3/7/02  0.6   23.3   26.7   37.3   6.1   6.0   100.0 
  4-5/6/02  1.3   23.1   25.9   38.8   4.8   6.1   100.0 
  2-7/5/02  0.4   26.6   30.2   32.4   5.1   5.3   100.0 
  2-8/4/02  1.4   24.4   33.3   29.8   5.9   5.1   100.0 
  1-5/3/02  1.1   21.2   29.8   35.9   6.3   5.6   100.0 
  4-6/2/02  1.8   24.7   32.1   30.4   6.4   4.5   100.0 
  2-6/1/02  1.6   21.9   36.6   29.5   7.9   2.6   100.0 
  7-9/12/01  1.3   18.9   29.6   33.4   7.9   8.8   100.0 
  1-5/11/01  1.2   17.4   29.4   35.0   12.5   4.5   100.0 
  5-8/10/01  0.7   16.7   30.0   33.6   14.1   4.9   100.0 
  3-7/9/01  0.6   14.9   31.9   36.1   11.2   5.3   100.0 
  1-3/8/01  1.2   25.3   30.3   30.6   8.9   3.6   100.0 
  3-9/7/01  0.9   21.8   34.0   31.8   8.5   3.0   100.0 

Table 5 - People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government(Collapsed data)
 Date of survey Satisfied Half-half Dissatisfied Don't know / hard to say Total
  4-5/7/03  9.2   21.6   65.2   4.1   100.0 
  13-18/6/03  16.9   25.5   53.5   4.0   100.0 
  15-20/5/03  18.1   26.4   52.5   3.0   100.0 
  16-23/4/03  11.6   24.0   60.8   3.5   100.0 
  17-19/3/03  11.5   24.9   59.0   4.5   100.0 
  14-18/2/03  14.6   25.6   56.2   3.5   100.0 
  20-23/1/03  19.3   27.0   50.6   3.1   100.0 
  13-18/12/02  16.9   30.2   48.4   4.4   100.0 
  13-20/11/02  16.7   27.9   50.8   4.6   100.0 
  13-16/10/02  18.7   28.0   49.8   3.5   100.0 
  12-17/9/02  16.0   29.3   50.4   4.3   100.0 
  14-19/8/02  15.5   26.4   52.1   5.9   100.0 
  2-3/7/02  23.9   26.7   43.4   6.0   100.0 
  4-5/6/02  24.4   25.9   43.6   6.1   100.0 
  2-7/5/02  27.0   30.2   37.5   5.3   100.0 
  2-8/4/02  25.8   33.3   35.7   5.1   100.0 
  1-5/3/02  22.3   29.8   42.2   5.6   100.0 
  4-6/2/02  26.5   32.1   36.8   4.5   100.0 
  2-6/1/02  23.5   36.6   37.4   2.6   100.0 
  7-9/12/01  20.2   29.6   41.3   8.8   100.0 
  1-5/11/01  18.6   29.4   47.5   4.5   100.0 
  5-8/10/01  17.4   30.0   47.7   4.9   100.0 
  3-7/9/01  15.5   31.9   47.3   5.3   100.0 
  1-3/8/01  26.5   30.3   39.5   3.6   100.0 
  3-9/7/01  22.7   34.0   40.3   3.0   100.0 

Chart 3 - People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government
People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government

Table 6 - Regarding Article 23 of the Basic Law, after the July 1 demonstration, the government will now press ahead with tabling the Bill before Legco on July 9, after making the following amendments: The provision covering the proscription of groups affiliated with bodies banned on the mainland will be deleted; public interest will be added as a defence in connection with the unlawful disclosure of certain official information; and the provision giving the police powers to conduct searches without a court warrant during emergency investigations will be removed from the legislation. Do you support or oppose the government's passing the amended bill on July 9? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)
   4-5/7/2003
   Frequency  Percentage
  Very supportive  44   4.3 
  Quite supportive  189  ) 233   18.7  ) 23.0 
  Half-half  75     7.4   
  Quite opposed  295   29 
  Very opposed  250  ) 545   24.6  ) 53.6 
  Don't know / hard to say  162     15.9   
  Total  1,014     100   
  Base  1,022^        
  Missing case(s)  8        
^ A small number of cases were dropped from the base of this question because it was not included on the first day of the survey.

Table 7 - What do you think the Hong Kong people should do if the legislation for Article 23 is passed?
   4-5/7/2003
   Frequency  Percentage
  Express support or excitement  53   4.6 
  Accept the reality  348   30.2 
  Continue the struggle in compliance with the law  457   39.7 
  Continue the struggle by civil disobedience  186   16.1 
  Don't know / hard to say  108   9.4 
  Total  1,152   100 
  Base  1,160    
  Missing case(s)  8    

Table 8 - People marched to call for a change in SARG's leadership. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Interviewers to probe strength of opinion)
   4-5/7/2003
   Frequency  Percentage
  Very much agreed  251   21.8 
  Quite agreed  516  ) 767   44.9  ) 66.7 
  Half-half  99     8.6   
  Quite disagreed  124   10.8 
  Very much disagreed  17  ) 141   1.5  ) 12.3 
  Don't know / hard to say  144     12.5   
  Total  1,150     100   
  Base  1,160        
  Missing case(s)  10