HKUPOP releases the “OCLP Deliberation Series DDay1” Preliminary ReportBack

 
Press Release on June 17, 2013

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases the preliminary report of the “OCLP Deliberation Series DDay1”. The media and members of the public are welcome to access this Chinese report at the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) and the “PopCon” website (http://popcon.hk). Please note:

  • POP is providing the OCLP Secretariat a professional service to organize the ‘OCLP Deliberation Series’, in the hope of raising the operation and result of these deliberation activities to international standards. POP stays political neutral to the ‘OCLP’ Campaign per se, and the OCLP Secretariat has already pledged to give POP full autonomy in designing and conducting all activities in the Deliberation Series.

  • POP has created the “OCLP Deliberation Series” feature and archive pages at both the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) and the “PopCon” website (http://popcon.hk) to document all the information and records of the Deliberation Series, including video recordings, for public consumption.

  • Enquiry: Winnie LEE, Research Manager of POP at tel: 3917 7721 and email: [email protected]

 

As for the relevant opinion survey figures of the DDay1, please refer to the followings:

 

“OCLP Deliberation Series DDay1” was held on 9 June 2013. A total of 95 randomly invited local citizens and 603 invited OCLP supporters participated in the event. Making reference to the “Deliberative Polling” design and as benchmark studies, POP also conducted two territory-wide random telephone surveys in the week before and after the DDay, and each time interviewed around 1,000 local citizens of age 18 or above who speak Cantonese, asking them to comment on “the chance of success in using civil disobedience actions to occupy the main streets in Central, in order to press the Central government into accepting a 2017 CE election proposal that complies with the international definition of universal suffrage”. The followings are the contact information and results of the pre- and post-DDay public opinion surveys, as well as the pre- and post-deliberation surveys of participants of the public module of the DDay:

 

Pre-DDay Public Opinion Survey

 

Date of survey:  3 to 5 June, 2013
Target population:  Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above who speak Cantonese
Survey method:  Telephone interviews by real interviewers. Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had his/her birthday next was selected.
Sample size:  1,027 successful cases
Response rate:  66.4%
Sampling error:  At 95% confidence level, the maximum sampling error of all percentages should be no more than +/-3.1 percentage points

 

Question: There is a suggestion to occupy the main streets in Central by means of civil disobedience actions to press the Central and SAR Governments into accepting a 2017 CE election proposal that complies with the international definition of universal suffrage. How would you describe its chance of success? (Interviewer probe intensity)

 

Frequency

Percentage (Base=943)

1 Very low

) Low

431

) 697

46%

) 74%

2 Quite low

267

28%

3 Half-half

 

190

 

20%

 

4 Quite high

) High

34

) 56

4%

) 6%

5 Very high

22

2%

 

 

Total

943

 

 

 

100%

 

 

 

Don’t know / hard to say

84

 

 

Mean[1]

1.9

[1]ean score is to quantify all answers according to its positivity, with 1 as the least and 5 as the most, and quantify to 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, that is 1=very low, 5=very high, and then average their score.

 

Participants Surveys on DDay 1

 

Date of survey:  9 June, 2013
Target population:  Participants of “OCLP Deliberation Series DDay 1”
Survey method:  Participants to fill out questionnaire
Sample size:  89 successful cases
Sampling error:  At 95% confidence level, the maximum sampling error of all percentages should be no more than +/-10.3 percentage points

 

Question 1:There is a suggestion to occupy the main streets in Central by means of civil disobedience actions to press the Central and SAR Governments into accepting a 2017 CE election proposal that complies with the international definition of universal suffrage. How would you describe its chance of success?

 

Pre-deliberation

Post-deliberation

Percentage (Base=83)

Percentage (Base=81)

1 Very low

) Low

24%

) 47%

15%

) 45%

2 Quite low

23%

30%

3 Half-half

 

37%

 

43%

 

4 Quite high

) High

11%

) 16%

7%

) 12%

5 Very high

5%

5%

 

 

Total

100%

 

 

100%

 

 

Mean[2]

2.5

2.6

 

Question 2: How would you describe its conceptual difficulty?

 

Pre-deliberation

Post-deliberation

Percentage (Base=83)

Percentage (Base=88)

1 Very low

) Low

4%

) 9%

2%

) 10%

2 Quite low

5%

8%

3 Half-half

 

30%

 

22%

 

4 Quite high

) High

37%

) 61%

50%

) 68%

5 Very high

24%

18%

 

 

Total

100%

 

 

100%

 

 

Mean[3]

3.7

3.7

 

Question 3: How would you describe its technical difficulty?

 

Pre-deliberation

Post-deliberation

Percentage (Base=84)

Percentage (Base=83)

1 Very low

) Low

0%

) 8%

1%

) 8%

2 Quite low

8%

7%

3 Half-half

 

19%

 

19%

 

4 Quite high

) High

45%

) 73%

44%

) 73%

5 Very high

29%

29%

 

 

Total

100%

 

 

100%

 

 

Mean[3]

3.9

3.9

[2] Mean score is to quantify all answers according to its positivity, with 1 as the least and 5 as the most, and quantify to 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, that is 1=very low, 5=very high, and then average their score.
[3] Mean score is to quantify all answers according to its level of difficulty, with 1 as the least and 5 as the most, and quantify to 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, that is 1=very low, 5=very high, and then average their score.

 

 

Post-DDay Public Opinion Survey

 

Date of survey:  10 to 13 June, 2013
Target population:  Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above who speak Cantonese
Survey method:  Telephone interviews by real interviewers. Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had his/her birthday next was selected.
Sample size:  1,023successful cases
Response rate:  66.4%
Sampling error:  At 95% confidence level, the maximum sampling error of all percentages should be no more than +/-3.1 percentage points

 

Question: There is a suggestion to occupy the main streets in Central by means of civil disobedience actions to press the Central and SAR Governments into accepting a 2017 CE election proposal that complies with the international definition of universal suffrage. How would you describe its chance of success? (Interviewer probe intensity)

 

Frequency

Percentage (Base=927)

1 Very low

) Low

360

) 636

39%

) 69%

2 Quite low

276

30%

3 Half-half

 

220

 

24%

 

4 Quite high

) High

51

) 71

5%

) 8%

5 Very high

20

2%

 

 

Total

  927

 

 

 

     100%

 

 

 

Don’t know / hard to say

  96

 

 

Mean[4]

2.0

[4] Mean score is to quantify all answers according to its positivity, with 1 as the least and 5 as the most, quantified to 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, that is 1=very low, 5=very high, and to average their score.

 

The final report of “OCLP Deliberation Series DDay1” is tentatively scheduled to be released in mid-July 2013, which is about one month after the event day.

 

Appendix:“OCLP Deliberation Series DDay1” Preliminary Report (Chinese pdf only)