HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack


Press Release on October 14, 2014

| Special Announcements | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |


Special Announcements

(1) The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has just completed a test of onsite voting under the “civil referendum” project. The system has proved to be technically viable and can be used any time. The question of whether to use the system to resolve conflicts is non-technical in nature, it would have to be decided by the demonstrators themselves.

 

(2) To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data of all 56 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 57th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data. Moreover, POP’s original plan to launch a “POP Education Page” is now put on hold due to the prevailing social situation.


Abstract

POP interviewed 1,012 Hong Kong people between 6 and 9 October, 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung drops significantly compared with two weeks ago, now at 40.6 marks. This is a new low since November 2013, and also the second lowest since he became CE. Leung’s net approval rate now stands at negative 38 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, all three of them have gained in popularity figures compared to one month ago, while those of CS Carrie Lam and FS John Tsang have increased more significantly. The latest support rating of Carrie Lam is 56.3 marks, her approval rate 53%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 37 percentage points. The latest support rating of John Tsang is 58.7 marks, approval rate 55%, disapproval rate 15%, and net popularity positive 40 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 47.0 marks, approval rate 29%, disapproval rate 23%, giving a net popularity of positive 6 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating, John Tsang has again replaced Carrie Lam to become the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 9 among the 12 Directors have gone up, while 3 have gone down. Among them, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan registered significant changes in net approval rates, down by 27 percentage points and up by 14, 10 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 17 and 31 percentage points respectively. The net approval rate of Lai Tung-kwok has dropped remarkably to his all-time record low, now at zero, probably related to the recent incident of occupying movement. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 74 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang, Carrie Lam and Matthew Cheung fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Anthony Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Lai Tung-kwok, Gregory So, Tsang Tak-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Raymond Tam and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45 again, Director of POP, Robert Chung, again reprints the abstracts of two articles written by him before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,012 successful interviews, not 1,012 x 66.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

 

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

6-9/10/2014

1,012

66.9%

+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

 

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

 

                   

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

1,300

+/- 2.8 %

1,350

+/- 2.7 %

1,200

+/- 2.9 %

1,250

+/- 2.8 %

1,100

+/- 3.0 %

1,150

+/- 3.0 %

1,000

+/- 3.2 %

1,050

+/- 3.1 %

900

+/- 3.3 %

950

+/- 3.2 %

800

+/- 3.5 %

850

+/- 3.4 %

700

+/- 3.8 %

750

+/- 3.7 %

600

+/- 4.1 %

650

+/- 3.9 %

500

+/- 4.5 %

550

+/- 4.3 %

400

+/- 5.0 %

450

+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

 

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:


Date of survey

21-24/7/14

31/7-6/8/14

14-20/8/14

4-11/9/14

17-22/9/14

6-9/10/14

Latest change

Sample base

1,017

1,012

1,018

1,000

1,006

1,012

--

Overall response rate

68.3%

64.7%

66.5%

63.8%

63.9%

66.9%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error [8]

--

Rating of CE CY Leung

46.1[9]

44.1[9]

45.0

42.0[9]

43.2

40.6+/-1.8

-2.6 [9]

Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung

26%

24%

25%

22%

21%

23+/-3%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung

55%[9]

56%

58%

61%

57%[9]

61+/-3%

+4%[9]

Net approval rate

-29%[9]

-32%

-33%

-39%[9]

-35%

-38+/-5%

-3%

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.


Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

 

Date of survey

3-6/6/14

7-10/7/14

31/7-6/8/14

4-11/9/14

6-9/10/14

Latest change

Sample base[10]

521-554

675-698

568-660

554-632

581-657

--

Overall response rate

68.4%

67.9%

64.7%

63.8%

66.9%

--

Latest finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error [11]

--

Rating of CS Carrie Lam

59.1[12]

55.9[12]

54.9

55.2

56.3+/-1.8

+1.1

Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam

52%[12]

45%[12]

44%

46%

53+/-4%

+7%[12]

Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam

12%

18%[12]

18%

17%

16+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

40%[12]

27%[12]

26%

29%

37+/-6%

+8%[12]

Rating of FS John Tsang

55.5

53.8

56.3[12]

54.8

58.7+/-1.7

+3.9[12]

Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang

43%[12]

43%

48%[12]

45%

55+/-4%

+10%[12]

Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang

16%

20%[12]

15%[12]

15%

15+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

27%[12]

23%

33%[12]

29%

40+/-6%

+11%[12]

Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen

51.9

46.6[12]

49.4[12]

45.0[12]

47.0+/-2.2

+2.0

Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen

31%

26%[12]

28%

27%

29+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen

16%

27%[12]

20%[12]

23%

23+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

15%

-1%[12]

7%[12]

4%

6+/-6%

+2%

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

 

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

 

Date of survey

31/7-6/8/14

4-11/9/14

6-9/10/14

Latest change

Sample base [13]

575-654

576-613

555-616

--

Overall response rate

64.7%

63.8%

66.9%

--

Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer

Base

%

Base

%

Base

% &
error [14]

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man

604

75%

580

80%[15]

596

78+/-3%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man

604

5%

580

6%

596

4+/-2%

-2%

Net approval rate

--

70%

--

75%

--

74+/-4%

-1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

622

45%

601

53%[15]

563

51+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

622

14%

601

12%

563

14+/-3%

+2%

Net approval rate

--

32%

--

41%[15]

--

37+/-6%

-4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

611

35%

613

36%

591

42+/-4%

+6%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

611

10%

613

11%

591

9+/-2%

-2%

Net approval rate

--

26%

--

25%

--

33+/-5%

+8%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung

654

32%

576

35%

597

43+/-4%

+8%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung

654

21%[15]

576

21%

597

20+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

11%[16]

--

13%

--

23+/-6%

+10%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang

575

26%

592

26%

558

30+/-4%

+4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang

575

10%

592

11%

558

11+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

--

16%

--

15%

--

19+/-5%

+4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

608

33%

590

33%

572

37+/-4%

+4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

608

22%

590

24%

572

22+/-3%

-2%

Net approval rate

--

11%[16]

--

9%

--

15+/-6%

+6%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

594

27%

600

32%[15]

565

33+/-4%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

594

25%

600

27%

565

23+/-4%

-4%

Net approval rate

--

3%[17]

--

5%

--

10+/-6%

+5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

621

24%

587

26%

561

33+/-4%

+7%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

621

29%

587

28%

561

28+/-4%

--

Net approval rate

--

-5%

--

-2%

--

5+/-7%

+7%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam

611

26%

602

27%

555

27+/-4%

--

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam

611

23%

602

25%

555

24+/-4%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

3%[17]

--

2%

--

3+/-6%

+1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok

600

40%

585

46%[15]

587

36+/-4%

-10%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok

600

19%[15]

585

19%

587

36+/-4%

+17%[15]

Net approval rate

--

21%

--

27%

--

0+/-7%

-27%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng

590

16%

596

20%[15]

607

26+/-4%

+6%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng

590

50%

596

50%

607

43+/-4%

-7%[15]

Net approval rate

--

-35%

--

-31%

--

-17+/-7%

+14%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan

626

20%

578

18%

616

21+/-3%

+3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan

626

49%[15]

578

54%[15]

616

52+/-4%

-2%

Net approval rate

--

-29%[15]

--

-36%[15]

--

-31+/-6%

+5%

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] In one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing were 11.1 and 10.7 percentage points. Thus, they ranked sixth and seventh at that time.
[17] In two decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam were 2.61 and 2.57 percentage points. Thus, they ranked eighth and ninth at that time.

 

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 40.6 marks, and 23% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 38 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 56.3, 58.7 and 47.0 marks, and 53%, 55% and 29% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 37, positive 40 and positive 6 percentage points respectively.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 74 percentage points. The 2nd and 3rd places belong to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan with net approval rates of positive 37 and positive 33 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Development Paul Chan ranked 4th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 23, positive 19, positive 15, positive 10, positive 5, positive 3, 0, negative 17 and negative 31 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

 


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

 

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 4 to 11 September, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 6 to 9 October, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

 

9/10/14

The HK government announces to cancel the talks with Hong Kong Federation of Students.

7/10/14

Occupy Central movement continues, affects the livelihood of citizens.

1/10/14

Media continues to report on Occupy Central.

27/9/14

Occupy Central starts earlier than said.

26/9/14

Students break into Civic Square; Joshua Wong is arrested.

21/9/14

Students start a 5 day long boycott of classes.

17/9/14

The government announces the future railway development blueprint.

14/9/14

Media continues to report Taiwan’s gutter oil scandal.

8/9/14

Students plan to boycott classes to protest against Beijing’s election reform proposal, anti-Occupy Central group unveils hotline for the public to report striking school students.

5/9/14

Taiwan’s tainted oil was sold to the market.



Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.

 

Our latest survey conducted about one week after the occupying movement had started shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung drops significantly compared with two weeks ago, now at 40.6 marks. This is a new low since November 2013, and also the second lowest since he became CE. Leung’s net approval rate now stands at negative 38 percentage points.

 

As for the Secretaries of Departments, all three of them have gained in popularity figures compared to one month ago, while those of CS Carrie Lam and FS John Tsang have increased more significantly. The latest support rating of Carrie Lam is 56.3 marks, her approval rate 53%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 37 percentage points. The latest support rating of John Tsang is 58.7 marks, approval rate 55%, disapproval rate 15%, and net popularity positive 40 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 47.0 marks, approval rate 29%, disapproval rate 23%, giving a net popularity of positive 6 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating, John Tsang has again replaced Carrie Lam to become the most popular Secretary of Department.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 9 among the 12 Directors have gone up, while 3 have gone down. Among them, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan registered significant changes in net approval rates, down by 27 percentage points and up by 14, 10 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 17 and 31 percentage points respectively. The net approval rate of Lai Tung-kwok has dropped remarkably to his all-time record low, now at zero, probably related to the recent incident of occupying movement. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 74 percentage points.

 

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang, Carrie Lam and Matthew Cheung fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Anthony Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Lai Tung-kwok, Gregory So, Tsang Tak-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Raymond Tam and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

 

The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

 

Ideal: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (78%)

 

Successful: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

FS John Tsang Chun-wah (55%); CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (53%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (51%)

 

Mediocre: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (43%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (42%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (37%); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (36%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (33%)[18]; Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (33%)[18]; SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (29%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (27%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (26%)

 

Inconspicuous: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok-wai (30%, 42%)

 

Depressing: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Leung Chun-ying (61%); Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (52%)

 

Disastrous: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

 

[18] In two decimal places, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing are 33.09% and 33.05%.

 

Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45 again, I reprint again the abstracts of two articles written by me before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

 

“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”

 

“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”


Future Release (Tentative)

  • October 21, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of Top 10 Legislative Councillors



| Special Announcements | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |