HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the Government and Cross-tabulation Analyses of Occupy Movement SurveysBack


Press Release on November 25, 2014

| Special Announcements | Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis |Opinion Daily | Commentary |
| Future Release (Tentative) |Appendix – Cross-tabulation Analysis of “PopCon Surveys on Occupy Movement” |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of HKSAR Government) |


Special Announcements

(1) The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has previously opened a new page at “PopCon” (http://popcon.hk) to let people suggest questions on the Occupy Movement for general surveys. POP selected some of the proposed questions and conducted two surveys, the preliminary results of which were released via “PopCon” last Wednesday and Thursday (November 19 and 20, 2014). POP today further releases the raw data of the surveys via the same platform, together with many cross-tabulation analyses, some of which are appended to this press release. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

 

(2) To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data of all 59 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 60th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.


 

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,022 Hong Kong people between 17 and 19 November 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung increases significantly compared with two weeks ago, up 4.3 marks to 44.7, back to the level in late August, and slightly below the warning line of 45. Leung’s approval rate now stands at 24%, disapproval rate 57%, giving a net popularity of negative 33 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, its satisfaction rate now stands at 31%, while dissatisfaction rate at 40%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 8 percentage points, representing a jump of 16 percentage points in one month. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE, and most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, Director of POP, Robert Chung, again reprints the abstracts of two articles written by him before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,022 successful interviews, not 1,022 x 67.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census.


Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

17-19/11/2014

1,022

67.5%

+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

 

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people’s satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:


Date of survey

4-11/9/14

17-22/9/14

6-9/10/14

20-23/10/14

31/10-5/11/14

17-19/11/14

Latest change

Sample base

1,000

1,006

1,012

1,018

1,008

1,022

--

Overall response rate

63.8%

63.9%

66.9%

66.3%

64.8%

67.5%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error [7]

--

Rating of CE CY Leung

42.0[9]

43.2

40.6[9]

38.9

40.4

44.7+/-1.7

+4.3[9]

Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung

22%

21%

23%

23%

24%

24+/-3%

--

Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung

61%

57%[9]

61%[9]

62%

60%

57+/-3%

-3%

Net approval rate

-39%[9]

-35%

-38%

-39%

-37%

-33+/-5%

+4%

Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[8]

--

25%

--

27%

--

31+/-4%

+4%

Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[8]

--

45%

--

51%[9]

--

40+/-4%

-11%[9]

Net satisfaction rate

--

-20%

--

-24%

--

-8+/-7%

+16%[9]

Mean value[8]

--

2.6
(Base=609)

--

2.5
(Base=616)

--

2.8+/-0.1
(Base=603)

+0.3[9]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 610.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.


The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 44.7 marks, and 24% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 33 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 31% were satisfied, whereas 40% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 8 percentage points. The mean score is 2.8, which is close to “half-half” in general.



Indepth Analysis

 

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive and the satisfaction rate of SARG performance by respondents’ age, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:


Date of survey: 17-19/11/2014

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall sample

Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE[10]

Support

9+/-4%
(16)

26+/-5%
(99)

29+/-4%
(131)

24+/-3%
(245)

Oppose

83+/-6%
(151)

54+/-5%
(202)

49+/-5%
(221)

57+/-3%
(575)

Don’t know / Hard to say

8+/-4%
(15)

20+/-4%
(77)

21+/-4%
(96)

19+/-2%
(188)

Total

100%
(182)

100%
(378)

100%
(448)

100%
(1,008)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

 

Date of survey: 17-19/11/2014

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall sample

Satisfaction / dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[11]

Satisfied

9+/-6%
(10)

38+/-6%
(87)

35+/-6%
(93)

31+/-4%
(190)

Half-half

21+/-8%
(22)

27+/-6%
(62)

32+/-6%
(86)

28+/-4%
(170)

Dissatisfied

70+/-9%
(76)

35+/-6%
(81)

30+/-6%
(80)

39+/-4%
(237)

Don’t know / Hard to say

0+/-0%
(0)

1+/-1%
(1)

2+/-2%
(6)

1+/-1%
(7)

Total

100%
(108)

100%
(232)

100%
(264)

100%
(604)

Mean value

2.1+/-0.2
(108)

2.9+/-0.2
(230)

3.0+/-0.1
(258)

2.8+/-0.1
(597)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

 

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 20 to 23 October, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 17 to 19 November, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

 

19/11/14

Protesters charge the Legislative Council building.

18/11/14

Injunction execution has started and barricades outside Citic Tower have been removed.

17/11/14

Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect starts, mainland investors are less active than Hong Kong investors.

15/11/14

Three student leaders’ home return permits were revoked and thus could not board the flight to Beijing.

13/11/14

A High Court judge refuses to delay temporary injunction.

12/11/14

Xi Jinping says Occupy Central is an illegal movement.

9/11/14

Xi Jinping has a meeting with Leung Chun-ying, indicates his support to the SAR government to move toward democratic reform in line with the law.

29/10/14

The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference removes James Tien from his position, Tien resigns as Liberal Party leader.

26/10/14

Vote in occupied areas is cancelled, protest leaders apologise.

25/10/14

Occupy Central continues; anti-Occupy Central protesters starts a signature campaign.

24/10/14

Tung Chee-hwa urges protesters to leave the occupied areas.

21/10/14

The government and Hong Kong Federation of Students start the first dialogue but both parties have not reached a consensus at the moment.



Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our latest survey shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung increases significantly compared with two weeks ago, up 4.3 marks to 44.7, back to the level in late August, and slightly below the warning line of 45. Leung’s approval rate now stands at 24%, disapproval rate 57%, giving a net popularity of negative 33 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, its satisfaction rate now stands at 31%, while dissatisfaction rate at 40%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 8 percentage points, representing a jump of 16 percentage points in one month. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical of CY Leung as CE, and most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.” Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, I reprint again the abstracts of two articles written by me before on CE popularity for public reference. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.”

 

“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”

 

“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”



Future Release (Tentative)
  • December 2, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s feelings towards different governments and peoples



Appendix – Cross-tabulation Analysis of “PopCon Surveys on Occupy Movement”

 

Some of the cross-tabulation analyses of “PopCon Surveys on Occupy Movement” are shown below, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:.

 

Date of survey: 17-19/11/2014[13]

Have you participated in the mass gatherings
of the Occupy Movement recently? [12]

Yes

No

Overall sample

Should the SAR government clear the occupied areas or leave them alone?[14]

Clear the occupied areas

23+/-8%
(28)

72+/-3%
(643)

66+/-3%
(672)

Leave them alone

71+/-8%
(87)

20+/-3%
(176)

26+/-3%
(263)

Don’t know / Hard to say

6+/-4%
(8)

8+/-2%
(69)

8+/-2%
(77)

Total

100%
(122)

100%
(888)

100%
(1,012)

[12] Excluding those who answer “Don’t know/hard to say”.
[13] Showing the merged data of two surveys with total sample of 1,012.
[14] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

 

Date of survey: 17-19/11/2014[15]

Respondent’s age

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall sample

Should the SAR government clear the occupied areas or leave them alone?[16]

Clear the occupied areas

32+/-7%
(59)

73+/-5%
(275)

74+/-4%
(332)

66+/-3%
(666)

Leave them alone

65+/-7%
(118)

22+/-4%
(83)

14+/-3%
(61)

26+/-3%
(261)

Don’t know / Hard to say

2+/-2%
(4)

5+/-2%
(17)

12+/-3%
(56)

8+/-2%
(77)

Total

100%
(180)

100%
(375)

100%
(449)

100%
(1,004)

[15] Showing the merged data of two surveys with total sample of 1,004.
[16] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

 

Date of survey: 19/11/2014

How well do you understand the decision of the NPCSC made on August 31 concerning political reform in Hong Kong? [17]

Understand

Half-half

Don’t understand

Overall sample

Should the SAR government clear the occupied areas or leave them alone?[18]

Clear the occupied areas

49+/-7%
(88)

67+/-9%
(78)

77+/-6%
(150)

64+/-4%
(324)

Leave them alone

40+/-7%
(72)

29+/-8%
(34)

16+/-5%
(30)

27+/-4%
(137)

Don’t know / Hard to say

10+/-5%
(19)

3+/-3%
(4)

8+/-4%
(15)

8+/-2%
(43)

Total

100%
(179)

100%
(116)

100%
(195)

100%
(504)

[17] Excluding those who answer “Don’t know/hard to say”.
[18] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

 


| Special Announcements | Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | Commentary |
| Future Release (Tentative) |Appendix – Cross-tabulation Analysis of “PopCon Surveys on Occupy Movement” |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of HKSAR Government) |