HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials and Cross-tabulation Analysis of Occupy Movement SurveyBack


Press Release on December 16, 2014

| Special Announcements | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
|Appendix – Cross-tabulation Analysis of “PopCon Surveys on Occupy Movement” |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |


Special Announcements

(1) The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has previously opened a new page at “PopCon” (http://popcon.hk) to let people suggest questions on the Occupy Movement for general surveys. POP selected some of the proposed questions and conducted three surveys, the preliminary results of the third survey were released via “PopCon” last Wednesday (December 10, 2014). POP today further releases the raw data of the survey via the same platform, together with some cross-tabulation analyses, one of which is appended to this press release. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

 

(2) To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data of all 60 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 61st CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.


Abstract

POP interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong people between 8 and 11 December, 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey conducted more than two months after the beginning of Occupy Movement shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung has dropped again, after a recovery in November. His support rating stands at 39.7 marks only, while his net approval rate stands at negative 39 percentage points, probably due to his recent remarks. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 54.8 marks, her approval rate 50%, disapproval rate 21%, giving a net popularity of positive 30 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 55.9 marks, approval rate 57%, disapproval rate 12%, and net popularity positive 44 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 47.3 marks, approval rate 32%, disapproval rate 25%, giving a net popularity of positive 7 percentage points. The support rating of Carrie Lam again hits record low since she became CS, while John Tsang becomes the most popular Secretary of Department again. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 10 among the 12 Directors have gone down, while 2 have gone up. Among them, those who registered significant changes in net approval rates include, Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, up by 11 percentage points, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Development Paul Chan, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, down by 10, 9, 7, 7 and 6 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 28 and 43 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 77 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang and Carrie Lam fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Anthony Cheung, Raymond Tam, Wong Kam-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Gregory So, Tsang Tak-sing and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Ceajer Chan and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45 again, Director of POP, Robert Chung, again reprints the abstracts of two articles written by him before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,005 successful interviews, not 1,005 x 64.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

 

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

8-11/12/2014

1,005

64.5%

+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

 

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

 

                   

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

1,300

+/- 2.8 %

1,350

+/- 2.7 %

1,200

+/- 2.9 %

1,250

+/- 2.8 %

1,100

+/- 3.0 %

1,150

+/- 3.0 %

1,000

+/- 3.2 %

1,050

+/- 3.1 %

900

+/- 3.3 %

950

+/- 3.2 %

800

+/- 3.5 %

850

+/- 3.4 %

700

+/- 3.8 %

750

+/- 3.7 %

600

+/- 4.1 %

650

+/- 3.9 %

500

+/- 4.5 %

550

+/- 4.3 %

400

+/- 5.0 %

450

+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

 

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:


Date of survey

17-22/9/14

6-9/10/14

20-23/10/14

31/10-5/11/14

17-19/11/14

8-11/12/14

Latest change

Sample base

1,006

1,012

1,018

1,008

1,022

1,005

--

Overall response rate

63.9%

66.9%

66.3%

64.8%

67.5%

64.5%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error [8]

--

Rating of CE CY Leung

43.2

40.6[9]

38.9

40.4

44.7[9]

39.7+/-1.9

-5.0[9]

Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung

21%

23%

23%

24%

24%

24+/-3%

--

Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung

57%[9]

61%[9]

62%

60%

57%

63+/-3%

+6%[9]

Net approval rate

-35%

-38%

-39%

-37%

-33%

-39+/-5%

-6%[9]

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.


Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

 

Date of survey

31/7-6/8/14

4-11/9/14

6-9/10/14

31/10-5/11/14

8-11/12/14

Latest change

Sample base[10]

568-660

554-632

581-657

550-556

553-613

--

Overall response rate

64.7%

63.8%

66.9%

64.8%

64.5%

--

Latest finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error [11]

--

Rating of CS Carrie Lam

54.9

55.2

56.3

56.8

54.8+/-2.2

-2.0

Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam

44%

46%

53%[12]

56%

50+/-4%

-6%[12]

Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam

18%

17%

16%

15%

21+/-3%

+6%[12]

Net approval rate

26%

29%

37%[12]

41%

30+/-7%

-11%[12]

Rating of FS John Tsang

56.3[12]

54.8

58.7[12]

56.5 [12]

55.9+/-1.7

-0.6

Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang

48%[12]

45%

55%[12]

56%

57+/-4%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang

15%[12]

15%

15%

9%[12]

12+/-3%

+3%

Net approval rate

33%[12]

29%

40%[12]

47%[12]

44+/-6%

-3%

Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen

49.4[12]

45.0[12]

47.0

48.5

47.3+/-2.3

-1.2

Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen

28%

27%

29%

35%[12]

32+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen

20%[12]

23%

23%

21%

25+/-4%

+4%

Net approval rate

7%[12]

4%

6%

14%[12]

7+/-6%

-7%[12]

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

 

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

 

Date of survey

6-9/10/14

31/10-5/11/14

8-11/12/14

Latest change

Sample base [13]

555-616

568-625

571-625

--

Overall response rate

66.9%

64.8%

64.5%

--

Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer

Base

%

Base

%

Base

% &
error [14]

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man

596

78%

607

73%[15]

624

81+/-3%

+8%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man

596

4%

607

8%[15]

624

4+/-2%

-4%[15]

Net approval rate

--

74%

--

66%[15]

--

77+/-4%

+11%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

563

51%

603

50%

596

48+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

563

14%

603

14%

596

19+/-3%

+5%[15]

Net approval rate

--

37%

--

36%

--

29+/-6%

-7%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

591

42%[15]

605

42%

593

38+/-4%

-4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

591

9%

605

9%

593

11+/-3%

+2%

Net approval rate

--

33%[15]

--

33%

--

27+/-5%

-6%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung

597

43%[15]

584

40%

610

38+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung

597

20%

584

18%

610

18+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

--

23%[15]

--

23%

--

20+/-6%

-3%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang

558

30%

585

30%

571

28+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang

558

11%

585

13%

571

13+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

--

19%

--

17%

--

15+/-5%

-2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

572

37%

598

39%

591

35+/-4%

-4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

572

22%

598

18%[15]

591

24+/-4%

+6%[15]

Net approval rate

--

15%

--

21%

--

11+/-6%

-10%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam

555

27%

600

33%[15]

579

35+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam

555

24%

600

22%

579

25+/-4%

+3%

Net approval rate

--

3%

--

11%[15]

--

10+/-6%

-1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok

587

36%[15]

585

37%

581

39+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok

587

36%[15]

585

36%

581

34+/-4%

-2%

Net approval rate

--

0%[15]

--

1%

--

5+/-7%[16]

+4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

565

33%

597

34%

582

30+/-4%

-4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

565

23%

597

22%

582

25+/-4%

+3%

Net approval rate

--

10%

--

12%

--

5+/-6%[16]

-7%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

561

33%[15]

568

35%

584

31+/-4%

-4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

561

28%

568

27%

584

26+/-4%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

5%

--

8%

--

5+/-6%[16]

-3%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng

607

26%[15]

610

23%

615

18+/-3%

-5%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng

607

43%[15]

610

46%

615

46+/-4%

--

Net approval rate

--

-17%[15]

--

-23%

--

-28+/-6%

-5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan

616

21%

625

17%[15]

625

13+/-3%

-4%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan

616

52%

625

51%

625

57+/-4%

+6%[15]

Net approval rate

--

-31%

--

-34%

--

-43+/-6%

-9%[15]

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] Based on the figures of latest survey, in one decimal place, the corresponding net approval rates of Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So are positive 5.5, 5.1 and 4.8 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked eighth, ninth and tenth this time.

 

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 39.7 marks, and 24% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 39 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 54.8, 55.9 and 47.3 marks, and 50%, 57% and 32% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 30, positive 44 and positive 7 percentage points respectively.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 77 percentage points. The 2nd and 3rd places belong to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan with net approval rates of positive 29 and 27 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Development Paul Chan ranked 4th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 20, positive 15, positive 11, positive 10, positive 5, positive 5, positive 5, negative 28 and negative 43 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

 


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

 

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 31 October to 5 November, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 8 to 11 December, 2014. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

 

9/12/14

Media continues to report on Occupy Movement.

3/12/14

The Occupy Central trio turn themselves in at the Central Police Station.

2/12/14

The Occupy Central trio announces they will turn themselves in to the police and urge protesters on the streets to retreat.

25/11/14

Police start clearance in Mong Kok.

19/11/14

Protesters charge the Legislative Council building.

18/11/14

Injunction execution has started and barricades outside Citic Tower have been removed.

17/11/14

Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect launches, mainland investors are less active than Hong Kong investors.

15/11/14

Three student leaders’ home return permits were revoked and thus could not board the flight to Beijing.

13/11/14

A High Court judge refuses to delay temporary injunction.

9/11/14

Xi Jinping has a meeting with Leung Chun-ying and indicates his support to the SAR government to move toward democratic reform in line with the law.



Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.

 

Our latest survey conducted more than two months after the beginning of Occupy Movement shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung has dropped again, after a recovery in November. His support rating stands at 39.7 marks only, while his net approval rate stands at negative 39 percentage points, probably due to his recent remarks.

 

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 54.8 marks, her approval rate 50%, disapproval rate 21%, giving a net popularity of positive 30 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 55.9 marks, approval rate 57%, disapproval rate 12%, and net popularity positive 44 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 47.3 marks, approval rate 32%, disapproval rate 25%, giving a net popularity of positive 7 percentage points. The support rating of Carrie Lam again hits record low since she became CS, while John Tsang becomes the most popular Secretary of Department again.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 10 among the 12 Directors have gone down, while 2 have gone up. Among them, those who registered significant changes in net approval rates include, Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, up by 11 percentage points, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Development Paul Chan, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, down by 10, 9, 7, 7 and 6 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 28 and 43 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 77 percentage points.

 

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang and Carrie Lam fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Anthony Cheung, Raymond Tam, Wong Kam-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Gregory So, Tsang Tak-sing and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Ceajer Chan and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

 

The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

 

Ideal: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (81%)

 

Successful: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

FS John Tsang Chun-wah (57%); CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (50%)

 

Mediocre: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (48%); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (39%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (38%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (35%)[17]; Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (35%)[17]; SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (32%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (31%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (30%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (18%)

 

Inconspicuous: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (38%, 49%); Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok-wai (28%, 41%)

 

Depressing: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Leung Chun-ying (63%); Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (57%)

 

Disastrous: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

 

[17] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing are 34.9% and 34.6% respectively.

 

Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45 again, I reprint again the abstracts of two articles written by me before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

 

“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”

 

“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”


Future Releases (Tentative)

  • December 19, 2014 (Friday) 1pm to 2pm: First part of Macau annual survey 2014

  • December 22, 2014 (Monday) 1pm to 2pm: Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity

  • December 23, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Trust and confidence indicators




Appendix – Cross-tabulation Analysis of “PopCon Surveys on Occupy Movement”

One of the cross-tabulation analyses of “PopCon Surveys on Occupy Movement” is shown below, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

 

Date of survey: 8-9/12/2014

To what extent do you support or oppose the Occupy Movement initiated by students and citizens? [18]

Support

Half-half

Oppose

Total

To what extent do you support or oppose how the government handles the participants of the Occupy Movement? [18]

Support

1+/-1%
(7)

2+/-1%
(10)

35+/-4%
(174)

38%
(191)

Half-half

2+/-1%
(12)

6+/-2%
(32)

6+/-2%
(28)

14%
(72)

Oppose

29+/-4%
(142)

11+/-3%
(53)

8+/-2%
(40)

47%
(235)

Total

32%
(160)

19%
(95)

49%
(243)

100%
(498)

[18] Excluding those who answered “Don’t know/hard to say”.

[19] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.


| Special Announcements | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
|Appendix – Cross-tabulation Analysis of “PopCon Surveys on Occupy Movement” |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |