HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack


Press Release on January 13, 2015

| Special Announcements | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |


Special Announcements

(1) POP will conduct instant survey on CE’s policy address - As in previous years, Public Opinion Programme (POP) at The University of Hong Kong will conduct an instant survey after the Chief Executive delivers his policy address tomorrow (January 14, 2015). Results will be announced as soon as possible, after which POP will conduct follow-up surveys. Media interested in sponsoring these surveys can contact POP.

 

(2) To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data of all 62 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 63rd CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.


Abstract

POP interviewed 1,021 Hong Kong people between 2 and 8 January, 2015 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the popularity figures of CE CY Leung continue to fluctuate since two months ago. His latest support rating stands at 40.6 marks, significantly dropped from two weeks ago. His approval rate now stands at 23%, disapproval rate 62%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points, which is also a significant drop. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 54.8 marks, her approval rate 47%, disapproval rate 20%, giving a net popularity of positive 27 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 56.1 marks, approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 13%, and net popularity positive 41 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 45.8 marks, approval rate 32%, disapproval rate 30%, giving a net popularity of positive 2 percentage points. John Tsang continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 7 among the 12 Directors have gone down, while 5 have gone up. Among them, only Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing registered a significant change in net approval rate, down by 7 percentage points. Among all the Directors, only Tsang Tak Sing, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 2, 33 and 38 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 72 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang and Matthew Cheung fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Carrie Lam, Anthony Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Lai Tung-kwok, Raymond Tam, Wong Kam-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Gregory So and Tsang Tak-sing can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45 again, Director of POP, Robert Chung, again reprints the abstracts of two articles written by him before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,021 successful interviews, not 1,021 x 65.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

 

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

2-8/1/2015

1,021

65.5%

+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

 

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

 

                   

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

1,300

+/- 2.8 %

1,350

+/- 2.7 %

1,200

+/- 2.9 %

1,250

+/- 2.8 %

1,100

+/- 3.0 %

1,150

+/- 3.0 %

1,000

+/- 3.2 %

1,050

+/- 3.1 %

900

+/- 3.3 %

950

+/- 3.2 %

800

+/- 3.5 %

850

+/- 3.4 %

700

+/- 3.8 %

750

+/- 3.7 %

600

+/- 4.1 %

650

+/- 3.9 %

500

+/- 4.5 %

550

+/- 4.3 %

400

+/- 5.0 %

450

+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

 

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:


Date of survey

20-23/10/14

31/10-5/11/14

17-19/11/14

8-11/12/14

17-22/12/14

2-8/1/15

Latest change

Sample base

1,018

1,008

1,022

1,005

1,021

1,021

--

Overall response rate

66.3%

64.8%

67.5%

64.5%

68.0%

65.5%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error [8]

--

Rating of CE CY Leung

38.9

40.4

44.7[9]

39.7[9]

43.2[9]

40.6+/-1.8

-2.6[9]

Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung

23%

24%

24%

24%

26%

23+/-3%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung

62%

60%

57%

63%[9]

59%[9]

62+/-3%

+3%

Net approval rate

-39%

-37%

-33%

-39%[9]

-33%[9]

-39+/-5%

-6%[9]

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.


Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

 

Date of survey

4-11/9/14

6-9/10/14

31/10-5/11/14

8-11/12/14

2-8/1/15

Latest change

Sample base[10]

554-632

581-657

550-556

553-613

619-655

--

Overall response rate

63.8%

66.9%

64.8%

64.5%

65.5%

--

Latest finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error [11]

--

Rating of CS Carrie Lam

55.2

56.3

56.8

54.8

54.8+/-2.1

--

Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam

46%

53%[12]

56%

50%[12]

47+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam

17%

16%

15%

21%[12]

20+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

29%

37%[12]

41%

30%[12]

27+/-6%

-3%

Rating of FS John Tsang

54.8

58.7[12]

56.5[12]

55.9

56.1+/-1.6

+0.2

Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang

45%

55%[12]

56%

57%

54+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang

15%

15%

9%[12]

12%

13+/-3%

+1%

Net approval rate

29%

40%[12]

47%[12]

44%

41+/-6%

-3%

Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen

45.0[12]

47.0

48.5

47.3

45.8+/-2.3

-1.5

Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen

27%

29%

35%[12]

32%

32+/-4%

--

Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen

23%

23%

21%

25%

30+/-4%

+5%[12]

Net approval rate

4%

6%

14%[12]

7%[12]

2+/-6%

-5%

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

 

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

 

Date of survey

31/10-5/11/14

8-11/12/14

2-8/1/15

Latest change

Sample base [13]

568-625

571-625

566-626

--

Overall response rate

64.8%

64.5%

65.5%

--

Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer

Base

%

Base

%

Base

% &error [14]

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man

607

73%[15]

624

81%[15]

610

78+/-3%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man

607

8%[15]

624

4%[15]

610

6+/-2%

+2%

Net approval rate

--

66%[15]

--

77%[15]

--

72+/-5%

-5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

603

50%

596

48%

626

50+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

603

14%

596

19%[15]

626

18+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

36%

--

29%[15]

--

32+/-6%

+3%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

605

42%

593

38%

577

40+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

605

9%

593

11%

577

11+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

--

33%

--

27%[15]

--

29+/-5%

+2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung

584

40%

610

38%

569

43+/-4%

+5%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung

584

18%

610

18%

569

20+/-3%

+2%

Net approval rate

--

23%

--

20%

--

23+/-6%

+3%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang

585

30%

571

28%

572

26+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang

585

13%

571

13%

572

11+/-3%

-2%

Net approval rate

--

17%

--

15%

--

16+/-5%

+1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

598

39%

591

35%

618

32+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

598

18%[15]

591

24%[15]

618

23+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

21%

--

11%[15]

--

10+/-6%

-1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam

600

33%[15]

579

35%

597

33+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam

600

22%

579

25%

597

25+/-4%

--

Net approval rate

--

11%[15]

--

10%

--

8+/-6%

-2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

568

35%

584

31%

604

31+/-4%

--

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

568

27%

584

26%

604

27+/-4%

+1%

Net approval rate

--

8%

--

5%

--

4+/-6%

-1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok

585

37%

581

39%

619

37+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok

585

36%

581

34%

619

36+/-4%

+2%

Net approval rate

--

1%

--

5%

--

0+/-7%

-5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

597

34%

582

30%

613

27+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

597

22%

582

25%

613

30+/-4%

+5%[15]

Net approval rate

--

12%

--

5%[15]

--

-2+/-6%

-7%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng

610

23%

615

18%[15]

573

18+/-3%

--

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng

610

46%

615

46%

573

51+/-4%

+5%[15]

Net approval rate

--

-23%

--

-28%

--

-33+/-6%

-5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan

625

17%[15]

625

13%[15]

566

16+/-3%

+3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan

625

51%

625

57%[15]

566

54+/-4%

-3%

Net approval rate

--

-34%

--

-43%[15]

--

-38+/-6%

+5%

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

 

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 40.6 marks, and 23% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 39 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 54.8, 56.1 and 45.8 marks, and 47%, 54% and 32% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 27, positive 41 and positive 2 percentage points respectively.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 72 percentage points. The 2nd and 3rd places belong to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan with net approval rates of positive 32 and 29 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Development Paul Chan ranked 4th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 23, positive 16, positive 10, positive 8, positive 4, 0, negative 2, negative 33 and negative 38 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

 


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

 

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 8 to 11 December, 2014 while this survey was conducted from 2 to 8 January, 2015. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

 

07/01/15

Government starts the second consultation on political reform.

06/01/15

Government submits sentiment report.

05/01/15

Police contacts Occupy Movement key figures to assist in investigation.

29/12/14

Government launches public consultation on new agricultural policy.

25/12/14

CY Leung pays a duty visit to Beijing.

24/12/14

A money transport van spilled large bundles of cash in Wan Chai.

19/12/14

Rafael Hui and Thomas Kwok are found guilty of bribery.

16/12/14

Government releases the Long Term Housing Strategy report planning to increase 480,000 residential units in 10 years.

15/12/14

Policy holders of voluntary health insurance will be eligible for tax refund.

10/12/14

Police starts clearance in Admiralty.



Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.

 

Our latest survey conducted in early January shows that the popularity figures of CE CY Leung continue to fluctuate since two months ago. His latest support rating stands at 40.6 marks, significantly dropped from two weeks ago. His approval rate now stands at 23%, disapproval rate 62%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points, which is also a significant drop.

 

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 54.8 marks, her approval rate 47%, disapproval rate 20%, giving a net popularity of positive 27 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 56.1 marks, approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 13%, and net popularity positive 41 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 45.8 marks, approval rate 32%, disapproval rate 30%, giving a net popularity of positive 2 percentage points. John Tsang continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 7 among the 12 Directors have gone down, while 5 have gone up. Among them, only Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing registered a significant change in net approval rate, down by 7 percentage points. Among all the Directors, only Tsang Tak Sing, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan registered negative popularities, at negative 2, 33 and 38 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with net approval rate at positive 72 percentage points.

 

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang and Matthew Cheung fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Carrie Lam, Anthony Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Lai Tung-kwok, Raymond Tam, Wong Kam-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Gregory So and Tsang Tak-sing can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

 

The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

 

Ideal: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (78%)

 

Successful: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

FS John Tsang Chun-wah (54%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (50%)

 

Mediocre: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (47%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (43%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (40%); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (37%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (33%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (32%)[16]; SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (32%)[16]; Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (31%)[17]; Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (27%)

 

Inconspicuous: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok-wai (26%, 37%)

 

Depressing: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Leung Chun-ying (62%); Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (54%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (51%)

 

Disastrous: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

 

[16] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung are 32.4% and 32.1%.

 

Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45 again, I reprint again the abstracts of two articles written by me before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

 

“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”

 

“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”


Future Releases (Tentative)

  • January 15, 2015 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Policy Address Instant Poll

  • January 20, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Policy Address First Follow-up Survey



| Special Announcements | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |