HKU POP releases the latest rankings of political figuresBack

 

Press Release on November 17, 2015

| Detailed Findings (People's Most Familiar Political Figures) |


Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data of all 84 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.


Abstract

POP interviewed 1,008 Hong Kong people between November 2 and 5 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. According to this latest survey, Leung Chun-ying continues to be the most visible political figure in Hong Kong, Carrie Lam ranks 2nd while Jasper Tsang ranks 3rd. Compared to 6 months ago, 8 people remain on the “top 10” list, Anson Chan and Emily Lau who ranked 8th and 10th last time have both fallen out of the list after dropping to the 11th and 12th positions. They are replaced by John Tsang and Ko Wing-man who have gone up 6 positions and 7 positions from the 12th and 17th places to rank the 6th and 10th respectively. The ups and downs within the latest list should be good reflections of our changing political environment. If we would like to focus on long term development, we can use the overall rankings accumulated over five years. Figures show that Leung Kwok-hung, Donald Tsang, Leung Chun-ying, Regina Ip and Wong Yuk-man are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run. It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong. The maximum sampling error of percentages of people’s most familiar political figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. The response rate of this survey is 66%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the survey on people’s most familiar political figures, the sample size is 1,008 successful cases, not 1,008 x 66.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the survey results of people’s most familiar political figures. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of survey on people’s most familiar political figures:

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Sampling error of percentages [6]

2-5/11/2015

1,008

66.4%

+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.


This survey on people’s most familiar political figures has been conducted for many years, with results initially released through our publication POP Express until October 2006 when we began to release them online. Between 1994 and 2005, the survey was conducted and released in the form of “top 10 political figures” using our usual “top 10” or “top 5” series survey design, which involved both naming and rating stages. Starting from October 2005, we simplified our “top 10 political figures” survey by just recording and analyzing the “naming” results, because we have already developed over time numerous rating surveys covering CE, government officials, members of Legislative and Executive Councils, and so on. As for the rating part, we only conduct supplementary rating surveys to cover those listed in the top 10 political figures but not covered in other rating surveys. Take our latest survey as an example, our supplementary rating survey of Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa and Ko Wing-man will be conducted later and the results will be uploaded onto our POP Site in due course. Moreover, in our presentation of findings, different from the other “top 10” rating series, we introduced rankings from 1 to 50 for “people’s most familiar political figures”, as well as average accumulative rankings calculated from the past 10 surveys spanning over about five years, in order to indicate the ups-and-downs of these political figures in the long run. Please refer to our POP Site for details. Herewith the result of our latest survey on “people’s most familiar political figures”, other rankings beyond the “Top 10” can be found in the POP Site:

Date of survey

22-30/4/14

31/10-5/11/14

8-14/5/15

2-5/11/15

Average ranking over the past 10 surveys [9]

Sample base

1,032[8]

1,008

1,029[8]

1,008[8]

--

Overall response rate

65.6%

64.8%

67.4%

66.4%

--

Sampling error of

percentages (at 95% confidence level)[7]

+/-3%

+/-3%

+/-3%

+/-3%

--

Latest finding / Rank

%

Rank

%

Rank

%

Rank

%

Rank

--

Leung Chun-ying

25%

3

36%

1

57%

1

39+/-4%[13]

1

4.0

Carrie Lam

19%[10]

7

31%

2

32%

2

39+/-4%[13]

2

12.6

Jasper Tsang

18%[11]

8

20%[12]

7

21%

7

24+/-3%

3

7.3

Donald Tsang

23%

4

14%

9

23%

5

23+/-3%

4

4.0

Leung Kwok-hung

28%

1

27%

3

31%

3

22+/-3%[14]

5

3.0

John Tsang

17%

12

12%

14

16%

12

22+/-3%[14]

6

12.3

Wong Yuk-man

18%[11]

10

20%[12]

6

18%

9

20+/-3%

7

5.8

Regina Ip

21%

5

23%

4

22%

6

18+/-3%[15]

8

5.6

Tung Chee-hwa

19%[10]

6

21%

5

24%

4

18+/-3%[15]

9

11.2

Ko Wing-man

6%

23

11%

16

11%

17

17+/-3%

10

27.6

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[8] The sub-sample size in April 2014 was 547, while that in May 2015 was 671, and that in November 2015 was 650.

[9] The earliest of the past 10 surveys was conducted during May 3 to 10, 2011. For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average rankings.

[10] Based on the figures in April 2014 survey, the percentages of respondents who could name Tung Chee-hwa and Carrie Lam were 19.1% and 18.6% respectively, so Tung Chee-hwa and Carrie Lam ranked the 6th and 7th.

[11] Based on the figures in April 2014 survey, the percentages of respondents who could name Jasper Tsang and Wong Yuk-man were 18.3% and 18.0% respectively, so Jasper Tsang and Wong Yuk-man ranked the 8th and 10th.

[12] Based on the figures in November 2014 survey, the percentages of respondents who named Wong Yuk-man and Jasper Tsang were 20.2% and 19.6% respectively, so Wong Yuk-man and Jasper Tsang ranked the 6th and 7th.

[13] Based on the figures of latest survey, the percentages of respondents who named Leung Chun-ying and Carrie Lam were 39.15% and 39.13% respectively, so Leung Chun-ying and Carrie Lam ranked the 1st and 2nd.

[14] Based on the figures of latest survey, the percentages of respondents who named Leung Kwok-hung and John Tsang were 22.1% and 21.5% respectively, so Leung Kwok-hung and John Tsang ranked the 5th and 6th.

[15] Based on the figures of latest survey, the percentages of respondents who named Regina Ip and Tung Chee-hwa were 18.4% and 18.3% respectively, so Regina Ip and Tung Chee-hwa ranked the 8th and 9th.


In our naming survey conducted from early November, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Leung Chun-ying, Carrie Lam and Jasper Tsang were the top three. The corresponding percentages of respondents who named these figures were 39%, 39% and 24%. Donald Tsang, Leung Kwok-hung, John Tsang and Wong Yuk-man occupied the 4th to 7th places, with 23%, 22%, 22% and 20% of respondents naming them respectively. The 8th to 10th ranks fell to Regina Ip, Tung Chee-hwa, and Ko Wing-man respectively, and percentage of respondents who named these figures were 18%, 18% and 17%. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. For easy reference, POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since March 1997.

Herewith some of the results of our “people’s most familiar political figures” surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:

8-12/11/2010──8-14/5/2015 [16]

3-10/5/2011──2-5/11/2015 [16]

Overall rank

Political figures

Av. rank for 10 surveys

Over all rank

Political figures

Av. rank for 10 surveys

Overall rank

Political figures

Av. rank for 10 surveys

Over all rank

Political figures

Av. rank for 10 surveys

1

Leung Kwok-hung

2.9

11

Lee Cheuk-yan

12.4

1

Leung Kwok-hung

3.0

11

John Tsang

12.3

2

Donald Tsang

3.7

12

Tung Chee-hwa

12.4

2

Donald Tsang

4.0

12

Emily Lau

12.4

3

Wong Yuk-man

5.4

13

John Tsang

12.8

3

Leung Chun-ying

4.0

13

Carrie Lam

12.6

4

Regina Ip

6.1

14

Martin Lee

12.9

4

Regina Ip

5.6

14

Martin Lee

13.8

5

Leung Chun-ying

6.1

15

Rita Fan

14.7

5

Wong Yuk-man

5.8

15

Lee Cheuk-yan

14.1

6

Jasper Tsang

7.9

16

Alan Leong

15.9

6

Jasper Tsang

7.3

16

Rita Fan

15.3

7

Henry Tang

9.5

17

Tam Yiu-chung

16.4

7

Anson Chan

9.7

17

Alan Leong

15.7

8

Anson Chan

9.8

18

Audrey Eu

17.1

8

Henry Tang

10.7

18

Tam Yiu-chung

16.5

9

Albert Ho

11.5

19

Carrie Lam

17.5

9

Tung Chee-hwa

11.2

19

Audrey Eu

17.7

10

Emily Lau

11.7

20

Albert Chan

18.7

10

Albert Ho

12.1

20

Albert Chan

19.2

[16] For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average rankings.


Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Leung Kwok-hung has the highest overall rank with an average ranking of 3.0. The overall ranks of Donald Tsang and Leung Chun-ying come 2nd and 3rd respectively, with average rankings of 4.0. The overall ranks of Regina Ip and Wong Yuk-man come 4th and 5th respectively, with average rankings of 5.6 and 5.8. The overall ranks of Jasper Tsang and Anson Chan come 6th and 7th with average rankings of 7.3 and 9.7 respectively. The 8th to 10th overall ranks go to Henry Tang, Tung Chee-hwa and Albert Ho, with corresponding average rankings of 10.7, 11.2 and 12.1.


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from May 8 to 14, 2015, while this survey was conducted from November 2 to 5, 2015. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.


21/10/15

Public hospital doctors participate in a sit-in protest at Queen Elizabeth Hospital over their exclusion from the Civil Service Pay Level Survey.

16/10/15

Chief Secretary Carrie Lam says that the lead-in-water scandal has been politicised.

5/10/15

Former chief executive Donald Tsang is charged with misconduct in public office.

30/9/15

The Council of The University of Hong Kong rejects Johannes Chan’s appointment as Pro-Vice-Chancellor.

27/9/15

First anniversary of the Occupy Movement.

12/9/15

Zhang Xiaoming says Chief Executive’s authority is above the executive, legislative and judicial institutions.

20/7/15

Rhizopus microsporus is found in linens at Queen Mary Hospital.

10/7/15

Water samples from Kai Ching Estate contain excessive lead.

25/6/15

WhatsApp messages of a pro-establishment camp chat group leak.

18/6/15

The political reform package is vetoed.

14/6/15

Leung Kwok-hung admits he had made up a figure of HK$100 million for the bribe offer.


Commentary

Frank Lee, Research Manager of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “The purpose of our ranking of political figures is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people’s familiarity with these figures over time. According to our latest survey, Leung Chun-ying continues to be the most visible political figure in Hong Kong, Carrie Lam ranks 2nd while Jasper Tsang ranks 3rd. Compared to 6 months ago, 8 people remain on the ‘top 10’ list, Anson Chan and Emily Lau who ranked 8th and 10th last time have both fallen out of the list after dropping to the 11th and 12th positions. They are replaced by John Tsang and Ko Wing-man who have gone up 6 positions and 7 positions from the 12th and 17th places to rank the 6th and 10th respectively. The ups and downs within the latest list should be good reflections of our changing political environment. If we would like to focus on long term development, we can use the overall rankings accumulated over five years. Figures show that Leung Kwok-hung, Donald Tsang, Leung Chun-ying, Regina Ip and Wong Yuk-man are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run. It should be noted, however, that our ranking of ‘people’s most familiar political figures’ is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these rankings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”


Future Releases (Tentative)

  • November 19, 2015 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: District Council pre-election survey
  • November 24, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s feelings towards different governments and peoples