HKU POP releases findings on people's feeling towards different governments and peoplesBack

 

Press Release on May 24, 2016

| Detailed Findings (Feeling towards different governments) |
| Detailed Findings (Feeling towards different peoples) |


Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) at The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data of all 97 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.


Abstract

POP conducted a double stage survey on Hong Kong citizens’ feeling towards different governments and peoples in May, by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards fellow Hongkongers is 54 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR government, that towards Taiwan people is 31 percentage points higher than that towards the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 27 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, that towards Mainland Chinese people is 15 percentage points higher than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. It should be noted that the net values of Hong Kong people’s affinity towards the Hong Kong government, the Mainland Chinese government and the Macau government have all dropped to their record lows since 1997, but that towards the Taiwan government has increased to its record high since 1997. As for countries outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of Japan, Russia, Thailand, the United States and Malaysia whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. These findings are worth studying by various governments. Compared to 6 months ago, Hong Kong people’s net affinity values for the government and the people of Germany, and the peoples of the United Kingdom and Thailand are all at their new highs since 2007. As for reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our “Opinion Daily” feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level while the sampling error of net values need another calculation. The response rate of the second stage opinion survey is 68%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,000 successful interviews, not 1,000 x 69.7% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,001 successful interviews, not 1,001 x 67.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of various percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the survey findings on Hong Kong people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples. These surveys on governments are conducted at least once a year since 1997, while the surveys on peoples only began in 2007, this being the eighteenth time. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Sampling error of percentages [6]

3-5/5/2016

(First stage naming survey)

1,000

69.7%

+/-3%

16-19/5/2016

(Second stage opinion survey)

1,001

67.6%

+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. For this survey, the sub-sample size of all questions has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have been reported in the statistical tables.


The research design of our survey on “people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. For many years, POP have selected 15 regions and countries that are best known to Hong Kong people, and conducted surveys to measure people’s feeling towards the governments of these places. Our primary objective was to map Hong Kong people’s cosmopolitan view over time. In 2007, we improved our research design. Our mid-2007 survey was divided into two stages, namely, a naming survey and an opinion survey. In the 2007 year-end survey, we further added the people module to the survey. In specific terms, in our naming survey, other than Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan and Macau, respondents can name, unaided, up to ten regions or countries which they know best. The four cross-strait regions together with 12 other regions and countries most frequently mentioned in the naming stage were then shortlisted into the second stage, with their governments and peoples rated by respondents as “very positive”, “quite positive”, “half-half”, “quite negative” or “very negative”. In our first stage survey conducted on May 3 to 5, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea and France were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Our second stage survey was conducted on May 16 to 19. The following table summarizes the findings of Hong Kong people’s feeling towards the governments and peoples of the four cross-strait regions.


Date of survey

24-27/11/14

29/5-2/6/15

16-19/11/15

16-19/5/16

Sample base

1,009

1,038

1,004

1,001

Overall response rate

67.1%

66.5%

64.8%

67.6%

Feeling towards different governments / peoples [7]

Finding

Finding

Finding

Base [8]

Finding and error [9]

Latest change[10]

Net difference with gov’ts / peoples

Hong Kong

People Positive

49%

41%[11]

40%

606

49+/-4%

+9%[11]

+54%

People Negative

11%

10%

11%

606

14+/-3%

+3%

Net value

38%

30%[11]

29%

606

35+/-6%

+6%

Government Positive

32%[11]

27%[11]

26%

606

24+/-3%

-2%

-54%

Government Negative

37%

36%

34%

606

43+/-4%

+9%[11]

Net value

-5%

-8%

-8%

606

-19+/-7%

-11%[11]

Mainland

People Positive

31%

28%

26%

639

27+/-3%

+1%

+15%

People Negative

25%

21%[11]

24%

639

29+/-4%

+5%[11]

Net value

6%

7%

2%

639

-3+/-6%

-5%

Government Positive

29%

30%

26%

639

24+/-3%

-2%

-15%

Government Negative

34%

31%

31%

639

42+/-4%

+11%[11]

Net value

-5%

-1%

-5%

639

-17+/-6%

-12%[11]

Taiwan

People Positive

59%

62%

59%

613

67+/-4%

+8%[11]

+31%

People Negative

4%

3%

4%

613

3+/-1%

-1%

Net value

55%

59%

55%

613

64+/-4%

+9%[11]

Government Positive

29%

33%

31%

613

43+/-4%

+12%[11]

-31%

Government Negative

16%

10%[11]

10%

613

10+/-2%

--

Net value

13%

23%[11]

21%

613

33+/-5%

+12%[11]

Macau

People Positive

51%

47%

45%

637

49+/-4%

+4%

+27%

People Negative

2%

3%

2%

637

4+/-2%

+2%

Net value

49%

44%[11]

44%

637

45+/-5%

+1%

Government Positive

45%[11]

41%

39%

637

36+/-4%

-3%

-27%

Government Negative

13%[11]

13%

16%

637

17+/-3%

+1%

Net value

32%[11]

28%

23%

637

18+/-6%

-5%

[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

[8] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[10] Comparison made with survey findings of 16-19/11/15.

[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.


Herewith the findings of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards the governments and peoples of 12 regions and countries other than the four cross-strait regions. They are ranked according to the net values of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards their people, in descending order:


Date of survey

24-27/11/14

29/5-2/6/15

16-19/11/15

16-19/5/16

Sample base

1,009

1,038

1,004

1,001

Overall response rate

67.1%

66.5%

64.8%

67.6%

Feeling towards different governments / peoples [12]

Finding

Finding

Finding

Base[13]

Finding and error[14]

Latest change[15]

Net difference with gov’ts / peoples

Singapore

People Positive

60%[16]

61%

62%

605

60+/-4%

-2%

+18%

People Negative

2%

2%

2%

605

2+/-1%

--

Net value

58%[16]

59%

60%

605

58+/-4%

-2%

Government Positive

56%[16]

55%

56%

605

52+/-4%

-4%

-18%

Government Negative

5%

7%

7%

605

11+/-3%

+4%[16]

Net value

50%

49%

48%

605

40+/-6%

-8%[16]

Canada

People Positive

49%[16]

51%

55%

615

55+/-4%

--

+3%

People Negative

2%

1%

1%

615

2+/-1%

+1%

Net value

47%[16]

50%

54%

615

54+/-4%

--

Government Positive

45%[16]

48%

48%

615

52+/-4%

+4%

-3%

Government Negative

3%

1%

2%

615

2+/-1%

--

Net value

42%[16]

47%[16]

46%

615

51+/-4%

+5%[16]

Japan

People Positive

53%

54%

53%

585

62+/-4%

+9%[16]

+73%

People Negative

10%[16]

8%

9%

585

8+/-2%

-1%

Net value

44%[16]

47%

44%

585

53+/-5%

+9%[16]

Government Positive

15%

17%

18%

585

23+/-3%

+5%[16]

-73%

Government Negative

56%

48%[16]

47%

585

42+/-4%

-5%[16]

Net value

-41%

-31%[16]

-29%

585

-19+/-6%

+10%[16]

Australia

People Positive

49%

44%[16]

50%[16]

668

53+/-4%

+3%

+8%

People Negative

2%

3%

2%

668

2+/-1%

--

Net value

46%

41%[16]

48%[16]

668

52+/-4%

+4%

Government Positive

44%

39%[16]

44%[16]

668

47+/-4%

+3%

-8%

Government Negative

2%

5%

3%[16]

668

4+/-1%

+1%

Net value

42%

35%[16]

41%[16]

668

43+/-4%

+2%

United Kingdom

People Positive

44%[16]

42%

50%[16]

598

54+/-4%

+4%

+21%

People Negative

6%

4%

3%

598

3+/-1%

--

Net value

38%[16]

38%

47%[16]

598

51+/-5%

+4%

Government Positive

37%[16]

36%

41%[16]

598

44+/-4%

+3%

-21%

Government Negative

19%[16]

11%[16]

9%

598

14+/-3%

+5%[16]

Net value

18%[16]

25%[16]

32%[16]

598

30+/-6%

-2%

Germany

People Positive

45%[16]

37%[16]

45%[16]

619

48+/-4%

+3%

+3%

People Negative

1%

2%

1%

619

2+/-1%

+1%

Net value

44%[16]

35%[16]

43%[16]

619

47+/-4%

+4%

Government Positive

39%[16]

34%[16]

43%[16]

619

47+/-4%

+4%

-3%

Government Negative

3%

2%

2%

619

3+/-1%

+1%

Net value

36%[16]

32%

41%[16]

619

44+/-4%

+3%

South Korea

People Positive

52%

42%[16]

45%

643

47+/-4%

+2%

+10%

People Negative

6%

8%

7%

643

7+/-2%

--

Net value

46%

34%[16]

38%

643

41+/-5%

+3%

Government Positive

46%[16]

32%[16]

41%[16]

643

38+/-4%

-3%

-10%

Government Negative

7%[16]

10%

10%

643

8+/-2%

-2%

Net value

39%[16]

22%[16]

30%[16]

643

31+/-5%

+1%

Thailand

People Positive

38%[16]

38%

41%

663

43+/-4%

+2%

+48%

People Negative

11%[16]

10%

10%

663

7+/-2%

-3%

Net value

26%[16]

28%

31%

663

37+/-5%

+6%[16]

Government Positive

16%[16]

13%

16%

663

20+/-3%

+4%[16]

-48%

Government Negative

38%[16]

35%

30%[16]

663

31+/-4%

+1%

Net value

-22%[16]

-21%

-14%[16]

663

-11+/-5%

+3%

USA

People Positive

40%

37%

41%

635

42+/-4%

+1%

+42%

People Negative

9%

8%

6%

635

8+/-2%

+2%

Net value

31%

29%

34%

635

34+/-5%

--

Government Positive

21%

19%

24%[16]

635

24+/-3%

--

-42%

Government Negative

34%[16]

36%

33%

635

32+/-4%

-1%

Net value

-13%[16]

-16%

-8%[16]

635

-8+/-6%

--

Malaysia

People Positive

--

--

35%

611

37+/-4%

+2%

+33%

People Negative

--

--

6%

611

8+/-2%

+2%

Net value

--

--

29%

611

29+/-5%[17]

--

Government Positive

--

--

21%

611

21+/-3%

--

-33%

Government Negative

--

--

22%

611

25+/-4%

+3%

Net value

--

--

-1%

611

-4+/-5%

-3%

France

People Positive

28%[16]

29%

38%[16]

646

34+/-4%

-4%

+11%

People Negative

6%

4%

3%

646

6+/-2%

+3%[16]

Net value

23%[16]

25%

35%[16]

646

29+/-4%[17]

-6%[16]

Government Positive

19%[16]

18%

29%[16]

646

24+/-3%

-5%[16]

-11%

Government Negative

6%

6%

6%

646

6+/-2%

--

Net value

13%

12%

23%[16]

646

18+/-4%

-5%[16]

Russia

People Positive

26%

22%[16]

28%[16]

616

27+/-4%

-1%

+33%

People Negative

6%[16]

5%

5%

616

8+/-2%

+3%[16]

Net value

20%

17%

23%[16]

616

20+/-5%

-3%

Government Positive

19%

16%

17%

616

18+/-3%

+1%

-33%

Government Negative

31%

25%[16]

26%

616

32+/-4%

+6%[16]

Net value

-12%

-10%

-9%

616

-13+/-6%

-4%

[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

[13] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[15] Comparison made with survey findings of 16-19/11/15.

[16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[17] In two decimal places, the respective net values of people’s feeling towards the people of Malaysia and France are positive 28.64 and positive 28.60 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked tenth and eleventh respectively.


Our latest findings showed that, as regards the results of people’s feeling towards different peoples, 49% felt positive towards Hong Kong people themselves while the net value is positive 35 percentage points. For the other cross-strait regions, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau peoples were 27%, 67% and 49% while their net values are negative 3, positive 64 and positive 45 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on peoples of other regions and countries, the net values for Singapore, Canada, Japan and Australia were highest, with positive 58, positive 54, positive 53 and positive 52 percentage points respectively, while those for the United Kingdom, Germany, South Korea, Thailand and the United States were positive 51, positive 47, positive 41, positive 37 and positive 34 percentage points correspondingly. Lastly, the net value of feeling towards the people of Malaysia, France and Russia are positive 29, positive 29 and positive 20 percentage points only.

Regarding the results of people’s feeling towards different governments, 24% felt positive towards the HKSAR government while the net value is negative 19 percentage points. For the other cross-strait governments, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau governments were 24%, 43% and 36% while their net values are negative 17, positive 33 and positive 18 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on other governments, the net values for Canada, Germany, Australia and Singapore were the highest, with positive 51, positive 44, positive 43 and positive 40 percentage points correspondingly, while those for South Korea, the United Kingdom and France were positive 31, positive 30 and positive 18 percentage points correspondingly, those for Malaysia, the United States, Thailand, Russia and Japan were negative 4, negative 8, negative 11, negative 13 and negative 19 percentage points correspondingly.


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from November 16 to 19, 2015 while this survey was conducted from May 16 to 19, 2016. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

15/5/16

Police enhances the security measures for Zhang Dejiang visit.

16/4/16

A series of powerful earthquakes strike Japan’s Kumamoto, the Hong Kong government issues the amber outbound travel alert for the area.

22/3/16

A series of terror attacks hit Brussels, the Belgian capital.

9/2/16

A conflict between protesters and police in Mong Kok was triggered by the eviction of food hawkers on the first day of the Lunar New Year.

6/2/16

An earthquake of 6.4 magnitude strikes Tainan.

29/1/16

Japanese central bank adopts negative interest rates.

16/1/16

Democratic Progressive Party leader Tsai Ing-wen wins Taiwan’s presidential election.

5/1/16

Media reports on the missing of Causeway Bay bookstore’s shareholder.

17/12/15

The US Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate to 0.25 per cent.

27/11/15

Mainland and Hong Kong reach CEPA service trade agreement.

19/11/15

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria kills a Chinese hostage.

17/11/15

Hong Kong draws tie with China in the World Cup Asian qualifying match.


Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of Public Opinion Programme, Edward Chit-Fai Tai.

Our latest survey shows that, in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards fellow Hongkongers is 54 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR government, that towards Taiwan people is 31 percentage points higher than that towards the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 27 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, that towards Mainland Chinese people is 15 percentage points higher than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. It should be noted that the net values of Hong Kong people’s affinity towards the Hong Kong government, the Mainland Chinese government and the Macau government have all dropped to their record lows since 1997, but that towards the Taiwan government has increased to its record high since 1997. As for countries outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of Japan, Russia, Thailand, the United States and Malaysia whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. These findings are worth studying by various governments. Compared to 6 months ago, Hong Kong people’s net affinity values for the government and the people of Germany, and the peoples of the United Kingdom and Thailand are all at their new highs since 2007. As for reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our “Opinion Daily” feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design.


Future Release (Tentative)

    May 31, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government

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