HKU POP releases the follow-up poll of Chief Executive electionBack

 
Press Release on April 5, 2017
Detailed Findings(Follow-up poll of Chief Executive election)

Special Announcement

Robert Chung the Director of The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong starts to publish his article series “Chung’s Blunt Words: CE-elect Series” in his online column “Chung’s Blunt Words” today, until June 30. Today he advises Carrie Lam to be more honest and humble than CY Leung, and to lead HK see the light at the end of the tunnel. The article will be uploaded onto the facebook page named “Chung’s Blunt Words” ( www.facebook.com/ChungsBluntWords ) soon. The copyrights of all articles are open to the world, the media is welcome to re-publish the articles in full or in part, early or concurrent publication can also be arranged.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong people between 27 and 30 March 2017 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. This latest survey shows that people’s support rating of CE-elect Carrie Lam shortly after the CE election is 55.6 marks. Her approval rate stands at 43%, disapproval rate at 50%, giving a net popularity of negative 8 percentage points. 43% believe Carrie Lam has not faced the general public during the election process, while 50% are dissatisfied with this year’s election process, much higher than that of 1996, 2005 and 2007, but lower than the 59% registered in 2012. As for people’s confidence in the future of Hong Kong, 42% think that Lam’s success in the election has no effect on their confidence. This is similar to 1996, 2007 and 2012. Five years ago, 47% believed Leung Chun-ying would do a better job as the Chief Executive than Donald Tsang. Now that Lam will replace Leung, the percentage of who think Lam would do a better job than Leung is 55%. Further analysis shows that the younger the people, the more they oppose Lam as CE, and the more dissatisfied with this year’s election process. All in all, there are slight improvements on people’s comments on this year’s CE election than last time. In terms of popularity, Lam is still believed to face a difficult start. Whether she could beat the tide remains to be seen. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 71%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,002 successful interviews, not 1,002 x 70.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.0 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level".

[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

Same as in previous years, POP conducts a follow-up survey right after the CE election has ended. The main purpose is to gauge the popularity of CE-elect Carrie Lam, measure the general public’s appraisal of the CE election, and compare the figures with those held in five similar surveys (i.e. in 1996, 2005, 2007, 2012 and 2017), in order to pin down the merits and demerits of this year’s election. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of this survey:

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

27-30/3/17

1,002

70.6%

+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.


The popularity figures of previous Chief Executive-elects and Carrie Lam shortly after the CE elections are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

11/12/96

20-23/6/05

27-30/3/12

27-30/3/17

Sample base

1,301

1,026

1,019

1,002

Overall response rate

65.3%

61.9%

63.4%

70.6%

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error [7]

Finding and error [7]

CH Tung

Donald Tsang

Leung Chun-ying

Carrie Lam

Support rating of CE-elect

70.1+/-1.2

72.3+/-1.0

51.5+/-1.7

55.6+/-2.0

Support him/her as CE

--

75%+/-3%

38+/-3%

43+/-3%

Oppose him/her as CE

--

8%+/-2%

51+/-3%

50+/-3%

Net approval rate

--

+67%+/-4%

-13%+/-6%

- 8 %+/-6%

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.0, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rate not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures.


The latest survey showed that, CE-elect Carrie Lam scored 55.6 marks, 43% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is negative 8 percentage points. The results of other related issues are as follows:


Date of survey

11/12/96

20-23/6/05

26-30/3/07

27-30/3/12

27-30/3/17

Sample base

1,301

1,026

509

1,019

1,002

Overall response rate

65.3%

61.9%

62.8%

63.4%

70.6%

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error [8]

1996: Has Tung’s winning affected your confidence in the future of Hong Kong?

2005 and 2007: Has Donald Tsang’s success in the CE election increased or reduced your confidence in the future of Hong Kong?

2012: Has Leung Chun-ying’s success in the CE election increased or reduced your confidence in the future of Hong Kong?

2017: Has Carrie Lam’s success in the CE election increased or reduced your confidence in the future of Hong Kong?

Confidence in HK’s future increased

12%

52%

31%

20%

26 +/-3 %

No effect/change in confidence in HK’s future

73%

42%

59%

47%

42 +/-3 %

Confidence in HK’s future reduced

4%

1%

5%

28%

27 +/-3 %

1996: In your view, will CH Tung as the CE do a better or worse job than Chris Patten as the Governor?

2005: In your view, will Donald Tsang do a better or worse job than CH Tung as the CE?

2012: In your view, will Leung Chun-ying do a better or worse job than Donald Tsang as the CE?

2017: In your view, will Carrie Lam do a better or worse job than Leung Chun-ying as the CE?

Better

40%

81%

--

47%

55 +/-3 %

More or less the same

15%

11%

--

19%

24 +/-3 %

Worse

9%

<1%

--

20%

11 +/-2 %

1996: Are you satisfied with the selection process of the first CE?

2005, 2007, 2012 and 2017: Are you satisfied with the whole CE election process?

Satisfied[9]

39%

36%

44%

23%

36 +/-3 %

Half-half

15%

22%

29%

15%

10 +/-2 %

Dissatisfied [9]

31%

30%

22%

59%

50 +/-3 %

2005 and 2007: Do you think Donald Tsang has fac ed the general public during the election process?

2012: Do you think Leung Chun-ying has fac ed the general public during the election process?

2017: Do you think Carrie Lam has fac ed the general public during the election process?

Yes

--

37%

50%

39%

38 +/-3 %

Half-half

--

22%

22%

16%

12 +/-2 %

No

--

30%

20%

37%

43+/-3 %

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.


Results show that 26% of the respondents believed that Carrie Lam’s success in the CE election has increased their confidence in the future of Hong Kong, whereas 27% said their confidence reduced and 42% said no change. 55% expected that Carrie Lam would do a better job than Leung Chun-ying as the CE, 11% thought it would be worse, while another 24% opted for “more or less the same”. As for the whole CE election process, 36% and 50% expressed satisfaction and dissatisfaction with the process respectively. Finally, 38% of the respondents thought that Carrie Lam has faced the general public during the election process, whereas 37% held the opposite view.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of vote of confidence in Carrie Lam as CE and people’s satisfaction towards the whole CE election process by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 27-30/3/2017

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall sample

Support/oppose Carrie Lam as CE[10 ]

Support

16+/-6%

(27)

41+/-5%

(147)

54+/-5%

(244)

43+/-3%

(418)

Oppose

79+/-6%

(134)

51+/-5%

(184)

40+/-5%

(182)

51+/-3%

(500)

Don’t know/ Hard to say

4+/-3%

(7)

8+/-3%

(27)

6+/-3%

(29)

6+/-2%

(64)

Total

100%

(169)

100%

(358)

100%

(455)

100%

(982)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.


Date of survey: 27-30/3/2017

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall sample

Satisfaction / dissatisfaction rate of the

CE election process[11]

Satisfied

13+/-5%

(22)

34+/-5%

(121)

46+/-5%

(208)

36+/-3%

(351)

Half-half

7+/-4%

(12)

9+/-3%

(32)

11+/-3%

(51)

10+/-2%

(95)

Dissatisfied

76+/-7%

(129)

52+/-5%

(186)

39+/-5%

(177)

50+/-3%

(492)

Don’t know/ Hard to say

4+/-3%

(6)

5+/-2%

(19)

5+/-2%

(21)

5+/-1%

(46)

Total

100%

(169)

100%

(358)

100%

(457)

100%

(984)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.


Commentary

Frank Wai-kin Lee, Research Manager of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our follow-up survey shows that people’s support rating of CE-elect Carrie Lam shortly after the CE election is 55.6 marks. Her approval rate stands at 43%, disapproval rate at 50%, giving a net popularity of negative 8 percentage points. 43% believe Carrie Lam has not faced the general public during the election process, while 50% are dissatisfied with this year’s election process, much higher than that of 1996, 2005 and 2007, but lower than the 59% registered in 2012. As for people’s confidence in the future of Hong Kong, 42% think that Lam’s success in the election has no effect on their confidence. This is similar to 1996, 2007 and 2012. Five years ago, 47% believed Leung Chun-ying would do a better job as the Chief Executive than Donald Tsang. Now that Lam will replace Leung, the percentage of who think Lam would do a better job than Leung is 55%. Further analysis shows that the younger the people, the more they oppose Lam as CE, and the more dissatisfied with this year’s election process. All in all, there are slight improvements on people’s comments on this year’s CE election than last time. In terms of popularity, Lam is still believed to face a difficult start. Whether she could beat the tide remains to be seen.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

  • April 6, 2017 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 cross-strait political figures
  • April 11, 2017 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials