HKU POP releases findings on people’s feeling towards different governments and peoplesBack

 

Press Release on May 25, 2017

| Detailed Findings (Feelings towards different Governments) |

| Detailed Findings (Feelings towards different People) |

Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) at The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data of all 122 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP conducted a double stage survey on Hong Kong citizens’ feeling towards different governments and peoples in May, by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers. The latest survey shows that in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards fellow Hongkongers is 37 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR government, that towards Taiwan people is 49 percentage points higher than that towards the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 30 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, that towards Mainland Chinese people is 9 percentage points higher than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. As for countries outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of South Korea, Japan, Russia and the United States whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. These findings are worth studying by various governments. Compared to 6 months ago, the net value of Hong Kong people’s affinity towards the government of Australia has increased to its new high since 1997, while that towards the people of Malaysia has also increased to its new high since 2009. As for reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our “Opinion Daily” feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level while the sampling error of net values need another calculation. The response rate of the second stage opinion survey is 71%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 72.1% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,000 successful interviews, not 1,000 x 71.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of various percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the survey findings on Hong Kong people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples. These surveys on governments are conducted at least once a year since 1997, while the surveys on peoples only began in 2007, this being the twentyth time. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Sampling error of percentages [6]

8-11/5/2017

(First stage naming survey)

1,004

72.1%

+/-3%

15-18/5/2017

(Second stage opinion survey)

1,000

71.5%

+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. For this survey, the sub-sample size of all questions has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have been reported in the statistical tables.


The research design of our survey on “people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. For many years, POP have selected 15 regions and countries that are best known to Hong Kong people, and conducted surveys to measure people’s feeling towards the governments of these places. Our primary objective was to map Hong Kong people’s cosmopolitan view over time. In 2007, we improved our research design. Our mid-2007 survey was divided into two stages, namely, a naming survey and an opinion survey. In the 2007 year-end survey, we further added the people module to the survey. In specific terms, in our naming survey, other than Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan and Macau, respondents can name, unaided, up to ten regions or countries which they know best. The four cross-strait regions together with 12 other regions and countries most frequently mentioned in the naming stage were then shortlisted into the second stage, with their governments and peoples rated by respondents as “very positive”, “quite positive”, “half-half”, “quite negative” or “very negative”. In our first stage survey conducted on May 8 to 11, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, France and Germany were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Our second stage survey was conducted on May 15 to 18. The following table summarizes the findings of Hong Kong people’s feeling towards the governments and peoples of the four cross-strait regions.



Date of survey

16-19/11/15

16-19/5/16

14-17/11/16

15-18/5/17

Sample base

1,004

1,001

1,007

1,000

Overall response rate

64.8%

67.6%

70.9%

71.5%

Feeling towards different governments / peoples [7]

Finding

Finding

Finding

Base [8]

Finding and error [9]

Latest change [10]

Net difference with gov’ts / peoples

Hong Kong

People Positive

40%

49%[11]

41%[11]

642

41+/-4%

--

+37%

People Negative

11%

14%

13%

642

13+/-3%

--

Net value

29%

35%

28%[11]

642

28+/-5%

--

Government Positive

26%

24%

22%

642

28+/-4%

+6%[11]

-37%

Government Negative

34%

43%[11]

40%

642

37+/-4%

-3%

Net value

-8%

-19%[11]

-17%

642

-9+/-6%

+8%[11]

Mainland

People Positive

26%

27%

33%[11]

586

30+/-4%

-3%

+9%

People Negative

24%

29%[11]

25%

586

29+/-4%

+4%

Net value

2%

-3%

8%[11]

586

1+/-6%

-7%[11]

Government Positive

26%

24%

28%

586

30+/-4%

+2%

-9%

Government Negative

31%

42%[11]

34%[11]

586

37+/-4%

+3%

Net value

-5%

-17%[11]

-6%[11]

586

-8+/-7%

-2%

Taiwan

People Positive

59%

67%[11]

60%[11]

626

65+/-4%

+5%[11]

+49%

People Negative

4%

3%

4%

626

4+/-2%

--

Net value

55%

64%[11]

56%[11]

626

61+/-4%

+5%[11]

Government Positive

31%

43%[11]

29%[11]

626

32+/-4%

+3%

-49%

Government Negative

10%

10%

15%[11]

626

19+/-3%

+4%[11]

Net value

21%

33%[11]

15%[11]

626

12+/-6%

-3%

Macau

People Positive

45%

49%

50%

614

50+/-4%

--

+30%

People Negative

2%

4%

2%

614

2+/-1%

--

Net value

44%

45%

48%

614

48+/-4%

--

Government Positive

39%

36%

43%[11]

614

36+/-4%

-7%[11]

-30%

Government Negative

16%

17%

11%[11]

614

18+/-3%

+7%[11]

Net value

23%

18%

32%[11]

614

18+/-6%

-14%[11]

[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

[8] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[10] Comparison made with survey findings of 14-17/11/16.

[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.


Herewith the findings of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards the governments and peoples of 12 regions and countries other than the four cross-strait regions. They are ranked according to the net values of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards their people, in descending order:


Date of survey

16-19/11/15

16-19/5/16

14-17/11/16

15-18/5/17

Sample base

1,004

1,001

1,007

1,000

Overall response rate

64.8%

67.6%

70.9%

71.5%

Feeling towards different governments / peoples [12]

Finding

Finding

Finding

Base [13]

Finding and error [14]

Latest change[15]

Net difference with gov’ts / peoples

Canada

People Positive

55%

55%

51%

548

58+/-4%

+7%[16]

+6%

People Negative

1%

2%

2%

548

0+/- <1%

-2%

Net value

54%

54%

49%[16]

548

58+/-4%

+9%[16]

Government Positive

48%

52%

49%

548

52+/-4%

+3%

-6%

Government Negative

2%

2%

2%

548

1+/-1%

-1%

Net value

46%

51%[16]

48%

548

52+/-4%

+4%

Singapore

People Positive

62%

60%

56%

638

58+/-4%

+2%

+16%

People Negative

2%

2%

2%

638

4+/-2%

+2%

Net value

60%

58%

54%

638

54+/-5%

--

Government Positive

56%

52%

49%

638

51+/-4%

+2%

-16%

Government Negative

7%

11%[16]

12%

638

13+/-3%

+1%

Net value

48%

40%[16]

38%

638

38+/-6%

--

Japan

People Positive

53%

62%[16]

56%[16]

617

62+/-4%

+6%[16]

+67%

People Negative

9%

8%

10%

617

9+/-2%

-1%

Net value

44%

53%[16]

46%[16]

617

53+/-5%

+7%[16]

Government Positive

18%

23%[16]

20%[16]

617

25+/-4%

+5%[16]

-67%

Government Negative

47%

42%[16]

41%[16]

617

39+/-4%

-2%

Net value

-29%

-19%[16]

-21%[16]

617

-13+/-6%

+8%[16]

Australia

People Positive

50%[16]

53%

47%[16]

585

51+/-4%

+4%

+ 1 %

People Negative

2%

2%

2%

585

3+/-1%

+1%

Net value

48%[16]

52%

45%[16]

585

48+/-5%

+3%

Government Positive

44%[16]

47%

43%

585

50+/-4%

+7%[16]

- 1 %

Government Negative

3%[16]

4%

3%

585

3+/-1%

--

Net value

41%[16]

43%

40%

585

47+/-5%

+7%[16]

United Kingdom

People Positive

50%[16]

54%

46%[16]

658

50+/-4%

+4%

+10%

People Negative

3%

3%

6%

658

3+/-1%

-3%[16]

Net value

47%[16]

51%

39%[16]

658

47+/-4%

+8%[16]

Government Positive

41%[16]

44%

40%

658

46+/-4%

+6%[16]

-10%

Government Negative

9%

14%[16]

12%

658

8+/-2%

-4%[16]

Net value

32%[16]

30%

27%

658

38+/-5%

+ 11%[16]

Germany

People Positive

45%[16]

48%

44%

612

48+/-4%

+4%

+1%

People Negative

1%

2%

2%

612

3+/-1%

+1%

Net value

43%[16]

47%

42%[16]

612

45+/-4%

+3%

Government Positive

43%[16]

47%

39%[16]

612

47+/-4%

+8%[16]

-1%

Government Negative

2%

3%

5%

612

4+/-2%

-1%

Net value

41%[16]

44%

34%[16]

612

43+/-5%

+9%[16]

Thailand

People Positive

41%

43%

45%

660

49+/-4%

+4%

+37%

People Negative

10%

7%

6%

660

8+/-2%

+2%

Net value

31%

37%[16]

39%

660

41+/-5%

+2%

Government Positive

16%

20%[16]

25%[16]

660

26+/-3%

+1%

-37%

Government Negative

30%[16]

31%

23%[16]

660

23+/-3%

--

Net value

-14%[16]

-11%

2%[16]

660

4+/-5%

+2%

Malaysia

People Positive

35%

37%

--

581

40+/-4%

--

+30%

People Negative

6%

8%

--

581

5+/-2%

--

Net value

29%

29%

--

581

35+/-5%

--

Government Positive

21%

21%

--

581

24+/-4%

--

-30%

Government Negative

22%

25%

--

581

19+/-3%

--

Net value

-1%

-4%

--

581

5+/-5%

--

South Korea

People Positive

45%

47%

43%

639

43+/-4%

--

+40%

People Negative

7%

7%

9%

639

10+/-2%

+1%

Net value

38%

41%

34%[16]

639

33+/-5%

-1%

Government Positive

41%[16]

38%

22%[16]

639

21+/-3%

-1%

-40%

Government Negative

10%

8%

31%[16]

639

28+/-4%

-3%

Net value

30%[16]

31%

-9%[16]

639

-7+/-6%

+2%

France

People Positive

38%[16]

34%

33%

561

35+/-4%

+2%

+4%

People Negative

3%

6%[16]

6%

561

7+/-2%

+1%

Net value

35%[16]

29%[16]

27%

561

27+/-5% [17]

--

Government Positive

29%[16]

24%[16]

23%[16]

561

28+/-4%

+5%[16]

-4%

Government Negative

6%

6%

6%

561

5+/-2%

-1%

Net value

23%[16]

18%[16]

18%

561

23+/-4%

+5%[16]

USA

People Positive

41%

42%

33%[16]

587

39+/-4%

+6%[16]

+42%

People Negative

6%

8%

10%

587

12+/-3%

+2%

Net value

34%

34%

23%[16]

587

27+/-5%[17]

+4%

Government Positive

24%[16]

24%

20%

587

19+/-3%

-1%

-42%

Government Negative

33%

32%

29%

587

35+/-4%

+6%[16]

Net value

-8%[16]

-8%

-9%

587

-16+/-6%

-7%[16]

Russia

People Positive

28%[16]

27%

26%

616

28+/-4%

+2%

+35%

People Negative

5%

8%[16]

8%

616

8+/-2%

--

Net value

23%[16]

20%

19%

616

20+/-5%

+1%

Government Positive

17%

18%

19%

616

15+/-3%

-4%[16]

-35%

Government Negative

26%

32%[16]

25%[16]

616

30+/-4%

+5%[16]

Net value

-9%

-13%

-6%[16]

616

-16+/-5%

-10%[16]

[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

[13] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[15] Comparison made with survey findings of 14-17/11/16.

[16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[17] In one decimal place, the respective net values of people’s feeling towards the people of France and the USA are positive 27.3 and positive 26.6 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked tenth and eleventh respectively.


Our latest findings showed that, as regards the results of people’s feeling towards different peoples, 41% felt positive towards Hong Kong people themselves while the net value was positive 28 percentage points. For the other cross-strait regions, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau peoples were 30%, 65% and 50% while their net values were positive 1, positive 61 and positive 48 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on peoples of other regions and countries, the net values for Canada, Singapore and Japan were highest, with positive 58, positive 54 and positive 53 percentage points respectively, while those for Australia, the United Kingdom, Germany, Thailand, Malaysia and South Korea were positive 48, positive 47, positive 45, positive 41, positive 35 and positive 33 percentage points correspondingly. Lastly, the net value of feeling towards the people of France, the United States and Russia were positive 27, positive 27 and positive 20 percentage points only.

Regarding the results of people’s feeling towards different governments, 28% felt positive towards the HKSAR government while the net value was negative 9 percentage points. For the other cross-strait governments, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau governments were 30%, 32% and 36% while their net values were negative 8, positive 12 and positive 18 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on other governments, the net values for Canada, Australia, Germany, Singapore and the United Kingdom were the highest, with positive 52, positive 47, positive 43, positive 38 and positive 38 percentage points correspondingly, while those for France, Malaysia and Thailand were positive 23, positive 5 and positive 4 percentage points correspondingly, those for South Korea, Japan, Russia and the United States were negative 7, negative 13, negative 16 and negative 16 percentage points correspondingly.


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from November 14 to 17, 2016 while this survey was conducted from May 15 to 18, 2017. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

15/5/17

The Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation closes in Beijing.

9/5/17

Media reports on Chairman of the National People’s Congress Zhang Dejiang’s inspection visit to Macau.

17/4/17

China’s GDP increases 6.9% in the first quarter from a year earlier.

14/4/17

Media reports on the relationship between the United States and North Korea.

7/4/17

US President Donald Trump orders to fire Syrian military air base.

7/4/17

Media continues to report that President of China Xi Jinping meets with US President Donald Trump at the Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.

26/3/17

Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor is elected as the fifth Chief Executive of Hong Kong.

15/3/17

Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council, meets reporters from home and abroad at a news conference.

10/3/17

South Korean President Park Geun-hye is impeached.

16/2/17

Hong Kong is again ranked first in the world in economic freedom by the Heritage Foundation.

21/1/17

Media continues to report on the inauguration ceremony of Donald Trump as the President of the United States.

20/11/16

APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting is held in Peru.


Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of Public Opinion Programme, Frank Lee.

Our latest survey shows that, in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards fellow Hongkongers is 37 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR government, that towards Taiwan people is 49 percentage points higher than that towards the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 30 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, that towards Mainland Chinese people is 9 percentage points higher than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. As for countries outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of South Korea, Japan, Russia and the United States whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. These findings are worth studying by various governments. Compared to 6 months ago, the net value of Hong Kong people’s affinity towards the government of Australia has increased to its new high since 1997, while that towards the people of Malaysia has also increased to its new high since 2009. As for reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our “Opinion Daily” feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design.


Future Release (Tentative)

  • May 31, 2017 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government