HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE, CE-elect and the GovernmentBack

 

Press Release on June 27, 2017

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying) |

| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government) |

Special Announcements

1. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data of all 124 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 125th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

2. POP’s usual practice is to issue more frequent releases before and after the middle and also the end of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. Recently, POP issues a number of releases under the “HKSAR anniversary” survey series. Please see POP Site and also the “Future Releases” section of this press release for more information. Since the figures released today by POP come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted before July 2017, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for HKSAR anniversary stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running HKSAR anniversary reviews.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,007 Hong Kong people between 19 and 22 June 2017 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the popularity figures of CE CY Leung did not change much over the past two weeks, his latest support rating stands at 38.7 marks, and continues to stand below the warning line of 45. His latest approval rate is 21%, disapproval rate 71%, giving a net popularity of negative 50 percentage points. As for CE-elect Carrie Lam, her latest support rating is 52.2 marks, down significantly by 2.5 marks from that registered two weeks ago, her approval rate 45%, disapproval rate 41%, giving a net popularity of positive 4 percentage points, which has gone down slightly by 2 percentage point as compared to two weeks ago. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has increased significantly compared to a month ago. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 27%, dissatisfaction rate 47%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 20 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, only maintaining economic prosperity and handling of its relation with the Central Government registered positive values, at positive 2 percentage points and positive 1 percentage point respectively. The other three items registered negative values, protecting human rights and freedom at negative 7 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at negative 22 percentage points and developing democracy at negative 27 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, the net satisfaction rates of two among the five indicators have increased, while three have decreased. Among them, only the 11-percentage-point increase in the net satisfaction rate of protecting human rights and freedom has gone beyond sampling error. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 71%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Tai, reprints the abstracts of three articles written by Director of POP, Robert Chung, before on CE popularity, to discuss the relationship between CE popularity and governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site or facebook page “Chung’s Blunt Words”.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,007 successful interviews, not 1,007 x 71.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung, CE-elect Carrie Lam and the HKSAR Government. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

19-22/6/2017

1,007

71.2%

+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.


Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung, CE-elect Carrie Lam and people’s satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:


Date of survey

3-6/4/17

24-27/4/17

8-11/5/17

22-25/5/17

5-8/6/17

19-22/6/17

Latest Change

Sample base

1,009

1,006

1,004

1,003

1,036

1,007

--

Overall response rate

73.1%

71.4%

72.1%

69.7%

69.4%

71.2%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error[7]

--

Rating of CE CY Leung

41.3

41.5

41.7

38.1[9]

37.6

38.7+/-1.9

+1.1

Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung

23%[9]

26%

25%

20%[9]

20%

21+/-3%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung

71%[9]

66%[9]

68%

73%[9]

73%

71+/-3%

-2%

Net approval rate

-47%[9]

-40%[9]

-43%

-53%[9]

-54%

-50+/-5%

+4%

Rating of CE-elect Carrie Lam

55.6

52.6[9]

56.7[9]

54.0[9]

54.7

52.2+/-1.8

-2.5[9]

Vote of confidence in CE-elect Carrie Lam

48%[9]

42%[9]

47%[9]

46%

49%

45+/-3%

-4%[9]

Vote of no confidence in CE-elect Carrie Lam

46%[9]

49%

44%[9]

45%

44%

41+/-3%

-3%

Net approval rate

2%[9]

-7%[9]

3%[9]

0%

6%

4+/-6%

-2%

Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[8]

--

32%[9]

--

23%[9]

--

27+/-4%

+4%

Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[8]

--

49%

--

56%[9]

--

47+/-4%

-9%[9]

Net satisfaction rate

--

-17%

--

-33%[9]

--

-20+/-7%

+13%[9]

Mean value[8]

--

2.6

(Base=626)

--

2.4[9]

(Base=628)

--

2.6+/-0.1

(Base=577)

+0.2[9]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 590.

[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.


The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 38.7 marks, and 21% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 50 percentage points. CE-elect Carrie Lam scored 52.2 marks, and 45% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is positive 4 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 27% were satisfied, whereas 47% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 20 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, which is in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half”.

Recent figures on people’s appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows, in descending order of net satisfaction rates:



Date of survey

20-23/6/16

19-22/9/16

19-22/12/16

16-20/3/17

19-22/6/17

Latest Change [10]

Sample base[10]

550-613

576-612

541-631

571-623

542-634

--

Overall response rate

69.5%

72.4%

70.9%

72.2%

71.2 %

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error[11]

--

Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate [12]

32%

33%

36%

40%

38+/-4%

-2%

Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate [12]

38%[13]

40%

40%

34%[13]

35+/-4%

+1%

Net satisfaction rate

-6%[13]

-7%

-4%

6%[13]

2+/-7%

-4%

Mean value[12]

2.8

(Base=570)

2.8

(Base=599)

2.9

(Base=533)

3.0

(Base=572)

3.0+/-0.1

(Base=587)

--

Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate [12]

31%[13]

31%

36%[13]

43%[13]

37+/-4%

-6%[13]

Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate[12]

46%[13]

44%

39%[13]

39%

36+/-4%

-3%

Net satisfaction rate

-15%[13]

-13%

-3%[13]

4%

1+/-7%

-3%

Mean value[12]

2.6[13]

(Base=569)

2.7

(Base=531)

2.8

(Base=547)

2.9

(Base=586)

2.9+/-0.1

(Base=566)

--

Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate [12]

23%[13]

31%[13]

32%

32%

36+/-4%

+4%

Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate[12]

53%[13]

49%

47%

50%

43+/-4%

-7%[13]

Net satisfaction rate

-31%[13]

-18%[13]

-14%

-18%

-7+/-7%

+11%[13]

Mean value[12]

2.4[13]

(Base=534)

2.6[13]

(Base=573)

2.6

(Base=561)

2.6

(Base=577)

2.8+/-0.1

(Base=536)

+0.2[13]

Improving people’s livelihood: Satisfaction rate [12]

25%

26%

26%

31%[13]

26+/-4%

-5%[13]

Improving people’s livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate [12]

49%[13]

52%

52%

49%

49+/-4%

--

Net satisfaction rate

-25%

-27%

-26%

-18%[13]

-22+/-7%

-4%

Mean value[12]

2.5

(Base=538)

2.5

(Base=584)

2.6

(Base=607)

2.7

(Base=587)

2.6+/-0.1

(Base=534)

-0.1

Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate [12]

20%[13]

21%

24%

24%

25+/-4%

+1%

Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate [12]

53%

55%

51%

57%[13]

52+/-4%

-5%[13]

Net satisfaction rate

-33%

-35%

-27%[13]

-33%

-27+/-7%

+6%

Mean value[12]

2.3

(Base=550)

2.3

(Base=568)

2.5[13]

(Base=594)

2.4

(Base=549)

2.5+/-0.1

(Base=542)

+0.1

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.


Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the Government’s performance in maintaining economic prosperity, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 2 percentage points. The Government’s handling of its relation with the Central Government followed, attaining a net satisfaction rate of positive 1 percentage point. That in protecting human rights and freedom attained a net satisfaction rate of negative 7 percentage points. Lastly, the net satisfaction rates of the Government’s performance in improving people’s livelihood and developing democracy stand at negative 22 and negative 27 percentage points respectively. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 3.0, 2.9, 2.8, 2.6 and 2.5 respectively, which are in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 16 to 20 March, 2017 while this survey was conducted from 19 to 22 June, 2017. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

21/6/17

The State Council appoints principal officials of the fifth-term Government of the HKSAR.

13/6/17

The Chief Executive in Council has endorsed the report and recommendations of the Standard Working Hours Committee as a framework to guide the future formulation of the working hours policy.

3/6/17

The Development Bureau announces the Sustainable Lantau Blueprint.

1/6/17

Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying attends his final question and answer session at the Legislative Council.

27/5/17

Zhang Dejiang reiterates the relationship between the central government and the HKSAR at a symposium commemorating the 20th anniversary of implementing the Basic Law of the HKSAR.

23/5/17

ICAC arrests 21 over faked concrete test results for Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge project.

22/5/17

Cathay Pacific Airways to layoff 600 staff members.

17/5/17

The government invites the Hong Kong Housing Society to study the feasibility of building housing on the fringes of Tai Lam and Ma On Shan country parks.

12/5/17

The government issues the First Quarter Economic Report 2017.

27/3/17

The police charge nine protesters of the Occupy Central movement.

26/3/17

Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor is elected as the fifth Chief Executive of Hong Kong.

16/3/17

Three participants in Mong Kok Unrest are convicted of rioting.


Commentary

Edward Chit-Fai Tai, Senior Data Analyst of POP, observed, “Our survey shows that the popularity figures of CE CY Leung did not change much over the past two weeks, his latest support rating stands at 38.7 marks, and continues to stand below the warning line of 45. His latest approval rate is 21%, disapproval rate 71%, giving a net popularity of negative 50 percentage points. As for CE-elect Carrie Lam, her latest support rating is 52.2 marks, down significantly by 2.5 marks from that registered two weeks ago, her approval rate 45%, disapproval rate 41%, giving a net popularity of positive 4 percentage points, which has gone down slightly by 2 percentage point as compared to two weeks ago. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has increased significantly compared to a month ago. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 27%, dissatisfaction rate 47%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 20 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, only maintaining economic prosperity and handling of its relation with the Central Government registered positive values, at positive 2 percentage points and positive 1 percentage point respectively. The other three items registered negative values, protecting human rights and freedom at negative 7 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at negative 22 percentage points and developing democracy at negative 27 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, the net satisfaction rates of two among the five indicators have increased, while three have decreased. Among them, only the 11-percentage-point increase in the net satisfaction rate of protecting human rights and freedom has gone beyond sampling error. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’. Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, I reprint the abstracts of three articles written by Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the relationship between CE popularity and governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site or facebook page ‘Chung’s Blunt Words’.”

“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis...”

“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of …50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party… In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister… after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time...”

“Governance Crises Cannot be Ignored” (released on 25/4/2017): “In contemporary Britain, if the popularity of the Prime Minister falls below 30%, party rule will change… PM has to get an ‘approval rate’ of 44% in order to remain in office. In the United States, since 1944, a ruling party can only remain in office if the president achieved an ‘approval rate’ of 48% before the election… thus, back in Hong Kong, benchmarking ‘governance crisis’ with a rating score of 45, equivalent to 20% approval rate looks reasonable… Less than a month after the author issued a ‘credibility crisis’ in 2003, half a million people took to the street… Soon after CY Leung became CE, his popularity gradually sank, many times close to the crisis level of 45… Admit or not, crisis finally erupted into the Umbrella Movement and Mongkok Chaos, which were much more serious than that of July 1 rally in 2003.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

  • June 28, 2017 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: Suitability of designate Principal Officials
  • June 29, 2017 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Public Sentiment Index
  • June 30, 2017 (Friday) 1pm to 2pm: HKSAR anniversary survey
  • July 4, 2017 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s appraisal of society’s conditions