HKU POP releases society appraisalBack

 

Press Release on July 4, 2017

| Detailed Findings (People's Level of Concern about Political, Economic and livelihood problems) |

| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with Current Political, Economic and livelihood conditions) |

Special Announcements

1. Robert Chung, the Director of Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong, continues to publish his article series “Chung’s Blunt Words: HKSAR 20th Anniversary Series” in his online column “Chung’s Blunt Words” (www.facebook.com/ChungsBluntWords) today. He mentions that behind all the singing and dancing at this HKSAR 20th Anniversary, there are anger and resentment among the people. The copyrights of all articles are open to the world, the media are welcome to re-publish the articles in full or in part, early or concurrent publication can also be arranged.

2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data of all 125 regular rating surveys of former CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

3. POP’s usual practice is to issue more frequent releases before and after the middle and also the end of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. Recently, POP issues a number of releases under the “HKSAR anniversary” survey series. Please see POP Site and also the “Future Releases” section of this press release for more information.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,007 Hong Kong people from June 19 to 22, 2017 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that using a one-in-three choices method, people are currently most concerned with livelihood issues, followed by economic and political issues. This has been the usual pattern for many years. Among them, the percentage of those most concerned with economic issues has again dropped to its record low since the survey began in 1992. In terms of absolute ratings, the order of people’s concern across three broad areas is exactly the same. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of the current economic condition now stands at positive 8 percentage points, which is the first positive figure registered since December 2014, whereas those for livelihood and political conditions continue to be negative, at negative 25 and negative 47 percentage points respectively. People remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition, despite its net satisfaction rate has increased significantly compared to six months ago. In-depth analyses show that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current political condition. The maximum sampling error of all percentages in the survey mentioned is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 71%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,007 successful interviews, not 1,007 x 71.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3%, that of ratings not more than +/-0.16 and net values not more than +/-5 percentage points, at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP Site” the latest findings of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Sampling error of percentages[6]

19-22/6/2017

1,007

71.2%

+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.


Recent figures of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

29/6-2/7/15

16-21/12/15

27-30/6/16

19-22/12/16

19-22/6/17

Latest Change

Sample base

1,037

1,012

1,006

1,009

1,007

--

Overall response rate

67.6%

66.6%

70.1%

70.9%

71.2%

--

Latest finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error [7]

--

Most concerned with livelihood problems[8]

60%[10]

59%

58%

63%[10]

68+/-3%

+5%[10]

Most concerned with economic problems

19%[10]

20%

19%

18%

17+/-2%

-1%

Most concerned with political problems

17%[10]

18%

19%

17%

13+/-2%

-4%[10]

Rating on concern for livelihood problems[8]

7.13[10]

7.39[10]

7.44

7.33

7.45+/-0.11

+0.12[10]

Rating on concern for economic problems

6.69[10]

7.03[10]

6.92

6.84

6.88+/-0.12

+0.04

Rating on concern for political problems

5.74[10]

6.10[10]

5.98

6.06

5.85+/-0.16

-0.21[10]

Current livelihood condition:
Satisfaction rate[8][9]

20%[10]

23%

24%

25%

24+/-3%

-1%

Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate [8][9]

45%

43%

47%[10]

50%

49+/-3%

-1%

Net satisfaction rate

-25%

-20%

-23%

-25%

-25+/-5%

--

Mean value[9]

2.6

(Base=1,023)

2.7

(Base=999)

2.6

(Base=998)

2.6

(Base=997)

2.6+/-0.1

(Base=994)

--

Current economic condition:
Satisfaction rate[9]

31%

29%

28%

32%[10]

40+/-3%

+8%[10]

Current economic condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[9]

31%

35%[10]

38%

37%

32+/-3%

-5%[10]

Net satisfaction rate

0%

-6%[10]

-10%

-5%

8+/-5%

+13% [10]

Mean value[9]

2.9

(Base=1,015)

2.9

(Base=987)

2.8

(Base=988)

2.9

(Base=991)

3.0+/-0.1

(Base=987)

+0.1

Current political condition:
Satisfaction rate[9]

7%[10]

10%[10]

8%

10%

14+/-2%

+4%[10]

Current political condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[9]

64%

65%

68%

69%

62+/-3%

-7%[10]

Net satisfaction rate

-57%[10]

-55%

-60%[10]

-59%

-47+/-5%

+12%[10]

Mean value[9]

2.0[10]

(Base=962)

2.1

(Base=923)

2.0

(Base=933)

2.0

(Base=961)

2.2+/-0.1

(Base=922)

+0.2[10]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3%, that of ratings not more than +/-0.16 and net values not more than +/-5 percentage points, at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[8] The wordings used before the June 2010 survey were “social problems” and “social condition”. We take them to mean the same as “livelihood problems” and “livelihood condition” in the survey context.

[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.


Latest survey showed that 68% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems, while 17% and 13% attached their greatest concern to economic problems and political problems respectively. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems were 7.45, 6.88 and 5.85 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people’s satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions were 24%, 40% and 14% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were negative 25, positive 8 and negative 47 percentage points. The mean scores of the livelihood, economic and political conditions were 2.6, 3.0 and 2.2, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. As for education attainment, according to their answers, we grouped them into primary or below, secondary, and tertiary or above. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ satisfaction with the current political condition in Hong Kong by age and education attainment:

Date of survey: 19-22/6/17

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall Sample

Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the current political condition in Hong Kong?[11]

Satisfied

8+/-4%
(15)

14+/-4%
(49)

17+/-4%
(80)

15+/-2%
(144)

Half-half

17+/-6%
(28)

16+/-4%
(59)

15+/-3%
(71)

16+/-2%
(158)

Dissatisfied

75+/-7%
(129)

66+/-5%
(236)

54+/-5%
(252)

62+/-3%
(617)

Don’t know /
hard to say

0+/-0%
(0)

4+/-2%
(16)

13+/-3%
(60)

8+/-2%
(75)

Total

100%
(172)

100%
(360)

100%
(462)

100%
(994)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.


Date of survey: 19-22/6/17

Primary or below

Secondary

Tertiary or above

Overall Sample

Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the current political condition in Hong Kong?[12]

Satisfied

23+/-5%
(54)

15+/-3%
(71)

7+/-3%
(18)

14+/-2%
(143)

Half-half

16+/-5%
(37)

18+/-4%
(87)

11+/-4%
(31)

16+/-2%
(155)

Dissatisfied

36+/-6%
(85)

63+/-4%
(303)

81+/-5%
(229)

62+/-3%
(618)

Don’t know /
hard to say

25+/-6%
(59)

4+/-2%
(18)

1+/-1%
(3)

8+/-2%
(80)

Total

100%
(236)

100%
(478)

100%
(282)

100%
(995)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from December 19 to 22, 2016 while this survey was conducted from June 19 to 22, 2017. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

21/6/17

The State Council, on the nomination of Chief Executive-elect Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, appoints principal officials of the fifth-term Government of the HKSAR.

13/6/17

The Chief Executive in Council has endorsed the report and recommendations of the Standard Working Hours Committee as a framework to guide the future formulation of the working hours policy.

3/6/17

The Development Bureau announces the Sustainable Lantau Blueprint.

23/5/17

ICAC arrests 21 over faked concrete test results for Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge project.

22/5/17

Cathay Pacific Airways to layoff 600 staff members.

17/5/17

The government invites the Hong Kong Housing Society to study the feasibility of building housing on the fringes of Tai Lam and Ma On Shan country parks.

12/5/17

The government issues the First Quarter Economic Report 2017.

10/4/17

The government announces Life Annuity Scheme.

26/3/17

Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor is elected as the fifth Chief Executive of Hong Kong.

16/3/17

Three participants in Mong Kok Unrest are convicted of rioting.

16/2/17

Hong Kong is again ranked first in the world in economic freedom by the Heritage Foundation.

3/1/17

Hong Kong and Shenzhen agree to jointly develop Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovation and Technology Park in Lok Ma Chau Loop.


Commentary

Frank Wai-kin Lee, Research Manager of POP, observed, “According to our latest survey, using a one-in-three choices method, people are currently most concerned with livelihood issues, followed by economic and political issues. This has been the usual pattern for many years. Among them, the percentage of those most concerned with economic issues has again dropped to its record low since the survey began in 1992. In terms of absolute ratings, the order of people’s concern across three broad areas is exactly the same. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of the current economic condition now stands at positive 8 percentage points, which is the first positive figure registered since December 2014, whereas those for livelihood and political conditions continue to be negative, at negative 25 and negative 47 percentage points respectively. People remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition, despite its net satisfaction rate has increased significantly compared to six months ago. In-depth analyses show that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current political condition. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for such feelings using detailed records shown in our ‘Opinion Daily’ feature page.”

Future Release (Tentative)

  • July 11, 2017 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials