HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

 

Press Release on September 26, 2017

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) | (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government)

| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government) |

| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with Current Political, Economic and livelihood conditions) |

Special Announcements

1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, mobile numbers are also added to the sampling frame. Since it takes time to conduct further testing, the figures released today by The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong are only based on the landline sample. The results of the mixed sample will be released after further testing is completed. Meanwhile, POP has recently used “effective response rate” to report the survey’s contact information, in order to increase the compatibility of both survey modes. As for the weighting method, the latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and the economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census.

2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data of all regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the sixth CE rating survey of Carrie Lam after she took office. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP interviewed 816 Hong Kong people between 12 and 15 September 2017 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has significantly decreased by 2.6 marks to 56.4 compared to two weeks ago. Her latest approval rate is 47%, disapproval rate 41%, giving a net popularity of positive 7 percentage points, which has plunged 8 percentage points from early September. Both her popularity rating and net approval rate are at record low since she became CE. As for the SAR Government, its satisfaction rate now stands at 40%, dissatisfaction rate 37%, giving a net satisfaction rate of positive 2 percentage points, while the latest trust rate now stands at 44%, distrust rate 38%, its net trust has significantly decreased by 11 percentage points over the past two weeks to positive 6 percentage points. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are positive 7, negative 20 and negative 50 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger the respondents, the more critical they are of the Government’s performance and the more they distrust the Government. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 56%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 816 successful interviews, not 816 x 56.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and the HKSAR Government. From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity status is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and the economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey excluding the 201 testing samples using mobile numbers:

Date of survey

Effective sample size

Effective response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

12-15/9/2017

816

56.0%

+/-4%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.


Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and the HKSAR Government, as well as people’s appraisal of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

3-6/7/17

17-20/7/17

2-7/8/17

16-21/8/17

1-6/9/17

12-15/9/17

Latest change

Sample base

832

817

817

811

807

816

--

Response rate*

71.5%

71.6%

70.9%

72.0%

49.8%

56.0%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error [7]

--

Rating of CE Carrie Lam

63.7[9]

58.5[9]

59.0

60.2

59.0

56.4+/-1.9

-2.6[9]

Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam

52%[9]

50%

52%

51%

50%

47+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam

34%[9]

35%

37%

37%

35%

41+/-3%

+6%[9]

Net approval rate

19%[9]

15%

15%

14%

15%

7+/-7%

-8%[9]

Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[8]

35%[9]

35%

36%

41%[9]

40%

40+/-4%

--

Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[8]

39%[9]

41%

40%

35%[9]

31%

37+/-4%

+6%[9]

Net satisfaction rate

-4%[9]

-7%

-3%

5%[9]

9%

2+/-7%

-7%

Mean value[8]

2.9[9]

(Base=481)

2.7[9]

(Base=606)

2.8

(Base=602)

3.0[9]

(Base=572)

3.0

(Base=621)

2.9+/-0.1

(Base=656)

-0.1

Trust in HKSAR Government[8]

47%

46%

45%

45%

49%

44+/-4%

-5%[9]

Distrust in HKSAR Government[8]

33%

36%

35%

34%

32%

38+/-4%

+6%[9]

Net trust

14%

10%

10%

12%

17%

6+/-7%

-11%[9]

Mean value[8]

3.2[9]

(Base=499)

3.0[9]

(Base=624)

3.1

(Base=601)

3.1

(Base=574)

3.2

(Base=801)

3.0+/-0.1

(Base=662)

-0.2[9]

Current economic condition:
Satisfaction rate[8]

30%[9]

37% [9]

37%

40%

37%

40+/-3%

+3%

Current economic condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[8]

42%[9]

38% [9]

39%

34%[9]

35%

33+/-3%

-2%

Net satisfaction rate

-12%[9]

-1% [9]

-2%

6%[9]

2%

7+/-6%

+5%

Mean value[8]

2.8[9]

(Base=813)

2.9

(Base=807)

2.9

(Base=807)

3.0

(Base=796)

3.0

(Base=789)

3.0+/-0.1

(Base=799)

--

Current livelihood condition:
Satisfaction rate[8]

27%

26%

28%

30%

35%[9]

30+/-3%

-5%[9]

Current livelihood condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[8]

51%

52%

52%

49%

46%

49+/-4%

+3%

Net satisfaction rate

-23%

-27%

-25%

-19%

-11%[9]

-20+/-6%

-9%[9]

Mean value[8]

2.6

(Base=815)

2.5

(Base=800)

2.5

(Base=804)

2.6

(Base=805)

2.8[9]

(Base=795)

2.6+/-0.1

(Base=807)

-0.2[9]

Current political condition:
Satisfaction rate[8]

20%[9]

15%[9]

17%

16%

23%[9]

15+/-3%

-8%[9]

Current political condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[8]

60%

66%[9]

61%[9]

63%

56%[9]

65+/-3%

+9%[9]

Net satisfaction rate

-40%[9]

-51%[9]

-44%[9]

-47%

-34%[9]

-50+/-5%

-16%[9]

Mean value[8]

2.3

(Base=795)

2.0[9]

(Base=761)

2.2[9]

(Base=778)

2.1

(Base=755)

2.4[9]

(Base=757)

2.1+/-0.1

(Base=767)

-0.3[9]

* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter, “effective response rate” was used.

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Questions on satisfaction and trust on SARG only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 673.

[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.


The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 56.4 marks, and 47% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is positive 7 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 40% were satisfied, whereas 37% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at positive 2 percentage points. The mean score is 2.9, which is close to “half-half”. Meanwhile, 44% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, the net trust value is positive 6 percentage points, while the mean score is 3.0, meaning “half-half”. As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates were 40%, 30% and 15% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were positive 7, negative 20 and negative 50 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic, livelihood and political conditions were 3.0, 2.6 and 2.1, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the satisfaction rate and trust of the HKSAR Government, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

Date of survey: 12-15/9/2017

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall Sample

Satisfaction / dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance [10]

Satisfied

22+/-8%
(24)

35+/-6%
(85)

49+/-6%
(155)

40+/-4%
(264)

Half-half

20+/-8%
(21)

21+/-5%
(52)

21+/-5%
(65)

21+/-3%
(138)

Dissatisfied

53+/-10%
(57)

44+/-6%
(107)

27+/-5%
(85)

37+/-4%
(250)

Don’t know / Hard to say

5+/-4%
(6)

<1+/-<1%
(1)

3+/-2%
(10)

3+/-1%
(17)

Total

100%
(108)

100%
(246)

100%
(316)

100%
(669)

Mean value

2.6+/-0.2
(Base=102)

2.7+/-0.2
(Base=245)

3.2+/-0.1
(Base=305)

2.9+/-0.1
(Base=652)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.


Date of survey: 12-15/9/2017

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall Sample

Percentage of trust /
distrust in HKSAR Government[11]

Trust

25+/-8%
(27)

42+/-6%
(103)

52+/-6%
(165)

44+/-4%
(294)

Half-half

17+/-7%
(19)

15+/-5%
(37)

17+/-4%
(53)

16+/-3%
(109)

Distrust

58+/-10%
(62)

42+/-6%
(103)

28+/-5%
(90)

38+/-4%
(255)

Don’t know /
hard to say

0+/-0%
(0)

1+/-1%
(3)

3+/-2%
(8)

2+/-1%
(11)

Total

100%
(108)

100%
(246)

100%
(316)

100%
(669)

Mean value

2.5+/-0.2
(Base=108)

2.8+/-0.2
(Base=243)

3.3+/-0.1
(Base=308)

3.0+/-0.1
(Base=658)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 1 to 6 September, 2017 while this survey was conducted from 12 to 15 September, 2017. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

15/9/17

The heads of ten universities release a joint statement against “Hong Kong independence”.

12/9/17

The Office of Ombudsman releases the investigation report on Lands Department’s enforcement against a village house with irregularities.

8/9/17

A slogan congratulating Choi Yuk-lin on her son’s death is posted on the democracy wall at the Education University of Hong Kong.

7/9/17

The elder son of the Undersecretary for Education Choi Yuk-lin commits suicide.

6/9/17

Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor unveils the scheme for local first-time homebuyers.


Commentary

Edward Chit-Fai Tai, Senior Data Analyst of POP, observed, “Our latest survey conducted in mid-September shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has significantly decreased by 2.6 marks to 56.4 compared to two weeks ago. Her latest approval rate is 47%, disapproval rate 41%, giving a net popularity of positive 7 percentage points, which has plunged 8 percentage points from early September. Both her popularity rating and net approval rate are at record low since she became CE. As for the SAR Government, its satisfaction rate now stands at 40%, dissatisfaction rate 37%, giving a net satisfaction rate of positive 2 percentage points, while the latest trust rate now stands at 44%, distrust rate 38%, its net trust has significantly decreased by 11 percentage points over the past two weeks to positive 6 percentage points. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are positive 7, negative 20 and negative 50 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger the respondents, the more critical they are of the Government’s performance and the more they distrust the Government. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

  • October 3, 2017 (Tuesday) 12pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 5 Executive Councillors, PSI