HKU POP releases society appraisal surveyBack

 

Press Release on January 9, 2018

| Detailed Findings (People's Level of Concern about Political, Economic and livelihood problems) |

| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with Current Political, Economic and livelihood conditions) |

Special Announcements

1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples, while “effective response rate” is continued to be used to describe the survey’s contact information. As for the weighting method, a two-step protocol is used. First, both the landline and mobile samples have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution as well as economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census. After that, the mobile sample was rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample, and then mixed together to produce the final results. This weighting method has proved to be feasible after three months of testing, but POP will continue to review and enhance it, and keep the public informed.

2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data of regular rating surveys of current CE Carrie Lam, former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

3. Since the figures of “people’s concerns of society’s conditions” released today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2017, they are good for year-end stories. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over the past many years can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,013 and 1,000 Hong Kong people from December 18 to 19, 2017 and January 3 to 4, 2018 by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The latest two surveys show that using a one-in-three choices method, people are currently most concerned with livelihood issues, accounting for 65% of the total sample. Another 16% each express their concerns with political and economic issues. Among them, the percentage of those most concerned with economic issues has again dropped to its record low since the survey began in 1992. In terms of absolute ratings, people’s concern over political issues is lower than that of economic issues, while the ratings of people’s concerns with livelihood, economy and political problems are 7.37, 6.81 and 5.97 marks respectively. Besides, the satisfaction figures have not changed much over the past two weeks. People’s net satisfaction of the current economic condition now stands at positive 15 percentage points, whereas those for livelihood and political conditions continue to be negative, at negative 14 and negative 46 percentage points respectively. People remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. In-depth analyses show that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current political condition. The maximum sampling error of all percentages for both surveys is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of both surveys are 65% and 58%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the first survey is 1,013 successful interviews, not 1,013 x 64.9% response rate. The sample size of the second survey is 1,000 successful interviews, not 1,000 x 58.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state the first survey’s “sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.16, at 95% confidence level”. The second survey’s “sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3% and net values not more than +/-6 percentage points, at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP Site” the latest findings of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions. From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity status is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and the economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census. The mobile sample has also been rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. Herewith the contact information for the latest surveys:

Date of survey

Sample base

Effective response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages [6]

18-19/12/2017 (1st survey)

1,013

64.9%

+/-3%

3-4/1/2018 (2nd survey)

1,000

58.3%

+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.



Recent figures of people’s concerns of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

16-21/12/15

27-30/6/16

19-22/12/16

19-22/6/17

18-19/12/17

Latest Change

Sample base

1,012

1,006

1,009

1,007

1,013

--

Overall response rate*

66.6%

70.1%

70.9%

71.2%

64.9%

--

Latest finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error [7]

--

Most concerned with livelihood problems[8]

59%

58%

63%[9]

68%[9]

65+/-3%

-3%

Most concerned with political problems

18%

19%

17%

13%[9]

16+/-2%

+3%[9]

Most concerned with economic problems

20%

19%

18%

17%

16+/-2%

-1%

Rating on concern for livelihood problems[8]

7.39[9]

7.44

7.33

7.45[9]

7.37+/-0.13

-0.08

Rating on concern for economic problems

7.03[9]

6.92

6.84

6.88

6.81+/-0.12

-0.07

Rating on concern for political problems

6.10[9]

5.98

6.06

5.85[9]

5.97+/-0.16

+0.12

* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017. Thereafter, “effective response rate” was used.

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.16, at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[8] The wordings used before the June 2010 survey were “social problems” and “social condition”. We take them to mean the same as “livelihood problems” and “livelihood condition” in the survey context.

[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.


Recent figures of people’s satisfaction of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

16-19/10/17

6-9/11/17

14-16/11/17

4-6/12/17

18-19/12/17

3-4/1/18

Latest change

Sample base

1,009

1,002

1,011

1,034

1,013

1,000

--

Response rate*

64.5%

57.6%

62.8%

61.0%

64.9%

58.3%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error[10]

--

Current economic condition:
Satisfaction rate[11]

45%[12]

37%[12]

43%[12]

35%[12]

44%[12]

46+/-3%

+2%

Current economic condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[11]

34%

38%[12]

30%[12]

41%[12]

29%[12]

31+/-3%

+2%

Net satisfaction rate

11%[12]

-<1%[12]

13%[12]

-7%[12]

15%[12]

15+/-5%

--

Mean value[11]

3.1

(Base=982)

2.9[12]

(Base=984)

3.1[12]

(Base=987)

2.8[12]

(Base=1,015)

3.1[12]

(Base=990)

3.1+/-0.1

(Base=989)

--

Current livelihood condition:
Satisfaction rate[11]

31%

28%

37%[12]

25%[12]

32%[12]

33+/-3%

+1%

Current livelihood condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[11]

46%[12]

51%[12]

37%[12]

53%[12]

47%[12]

47+/-3%

--

Net satisfaction rate

-15%[12]

-23%[12]

1%[12]

-28%[12]

-15%[12]

-14+/-6%

+1%

Mean value[11]

2.7

(Base=985)

2.6

(Base=995)

3.0[12]

(Base=997)

2.5[12]

(Base=1,025)

2.7[12]

(Base=1,007)

2.7+/-0.1

(Base=992)

--

Current political condition:
Satisfaction rate[11]

20%

21%

21%

19%

16%[12]

18+/-2%

+2%

Current political condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[11]

59%

58%

62%[12]

58%[12]

62%[12]

64+/-3%

+2%

Net satisfaction rate

-39%

-37%

-41%

-40%

-46%[12]

-46+/-5%

--

Mean value[11]

2.3

(Base=954)

2.3

(Base=958)

2.3

(Base=967)

2.3

(Base=983)

2.1[12]

(Base=943)

2.2+/-0.1

(Base=962)

+0.1

* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017. Thereafter, “effective response rate” was used.

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3% and net values not more than +/-6 percentage points, at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.


Latest survey showed that 65% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems, 16% each attached their greatest concerns to political problems and economic problems respectively. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems were 7.37, 6.81 and 5.97 marks correspondingly.

Meanwhile, people’s satisfaction rates with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions were 46%, 33% and 18% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were positive 15, negative 14 and negative 46 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic, livelihood and political conditions were 3.1, 2.7 and 2.2, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. As for education attainment, according to their answers, we grouped them into primary or below, secondary, and tertiary or above. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ satisfaction with the current political condition in Hong Kong by age and education attainment:


Date of survey: 3-4/1/18

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall Sample

Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the current political condition in Hong Kong?[13]

Satisfied

7+/-4%
(12)

16+/-4%
(58)

23+/-4%
(107)

18+/-2%
(176)

Half-half

12+/-5%
(21)

14+/-4%
(51)

16+/-3%
(73)

15+/-2%
(144)

Dissatisfied

81+/-6%
(139)

66+/-5%
(233)

57+/-5%
(261)

64+/-3%
(633)

Don’t know /
hard to say

0+/-0%
(0)

4+/-2%
(13)

4+/-2%
(18)

3+/-1%
(31)

Total

100%
(171)

100%
(355)

100%
(458)

100%
(985)

[13] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.


Date of survey: 3-4/1/18

Primary or below

Secondary

Tertiary or above

Overall Sample

Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the current political condition in Hong Kong?[14]

Satisfied

25+/-6%
(59)

18+/-4%
(88)

11+/-4%
(32)

18+/-2%
(179)

Half-half

16+/-5%
(37)

16+/-3%
(77)

11+/-4%
(32)

15+/-2%
(145)

Dissatisfied

51+/-7%
(119)

63+/-4%
(302)

77+/-5%
(215)

64+/-3%
(636)

Don’t know /
hard to say

8+/-4%
(18)

3+/-1%
(12)

<1+/-<1%
(<1)

3+/-1%
(31)

Total

100%
(233)

100%
(479)

100%
(279)

100%
(991)

[14] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items of the first survey covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 19 to 22, 2017 while this survey was conducted from December 18 to 19, 2017. For the polling items of the second, the previous survey was conducted from December 18 to 19, 2017 while this survey was conducted from January 3 to 4, 2018. Herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.


3/1/18

Retired superintendent Franklin Chu King-wai is jailed for three months and bailed of $50,000 cash pending his appeal.

2/1/18

Hong Kong shares and A shares close up nearly 600 points and hit 10-year high on the first trading day of 2018.

27/12/17

The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress passes the motion of cooperation arrangement for implementing the co-location plan.

15/12/17

Chief Executive Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing.

11/12/17

LegCo restores the debate on amendments to the Rules of Procedure.

5/12/17

The cost of the main construction works for the MTR Shatin-Central Link is expected to overrun of 16.5 billion.

27/11/17

The Legislative Council Commission decides to recover 11.74 millions of remuneration and operating expenses paid to Leung Kwok-hung, Law Kwun-chung, Lau Siu-lai and Yiu Chung-yim, who have been disqualified from assuming the office of Members of LegCo.

23/11/17

The Hong Kong Government held a seminar on the 19th National Congress.

22/11/17

Hang Seng Index ends above the level of 30,000 for the first time in ten years.

20/11/17

Subsidised housing units of the Hong Kong Housing Society see oversubscription.

18/11/17

The Hong Kong and Guangdong governments sign the Co-operation Arrangement for the Express Rail Link.

17/11/17

The government releases the Hong Kong Poverty Situation Report 2016 with an increased poverty rate of 19.9%.

16/11/17

Basic Law Committee Chairman Li Fei delivers speech at the Basic Law Seminar in Hong Kong.

4/11/17

The National People’s Congress Standing Committee passes decisions to include the national anthem law in Annex III of the Hong Kong Basic Law.

31/10/17

Carrie Lam clarifies that the figure of 800,000 public rental flats is not a ceiling.


Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Chit-Fai Tai.

According to our latest survey, using a one-in-three choices method, people are currently most concerned with livelihood issues, accounting for 65% of the total sample. Another 16% each express their concerns with political and economic issues. Among them, the percentage of those most concerned with economic issues has again dropped to its record low since the survey began in 1992. In terms of absolute ratings, people’s concern over political issues is lower than that of economic issues, while the ratings of people’s concerns with livelihood, economy and political problems are 7.37, 6.81 and 5.97 marks respectively.

Besides, the satisfaction figures have not changed much over the past two weeks. People’s net satisfaction of the current economic condition now stands at positive 15 percentage points, whereas those for livelihood and political conditions continue to be negative, at negative 14 and negative 46 percentage points respectively. People remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition.

In-depth analyses show that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current political condition. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for such feelings using detailed records shown in our “Opinion Daily” feature page.

Future Release (Tentative)

  • January 16, 2018 (Tuesday) 12pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials