HKU POP releases ratings of the best public transportation and the trust and confidence indicatorsBack

 

Press Release on January 23, 2018

| Detailed Findings (Ratings of the Best Public Transportation) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Beijing Central Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Taiwan Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in HK's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in China's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems") |

Special Announcements

1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples, while "effective response rate" is continued to be used to describe the survey's contact information. As for the weighting method, a two-step protocol is used. First, both the landline and mobile samples have been rim-weighted according to figures collected in the 2016 By-census regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population and the 2017 educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution obtained from the Census and Statistics Department. After that, the mobile sample was rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample, and then mixed together to produce the final results. This weighting method has proved to be feasible after three months of testing, but POP will continue to review and enhance it, and keep the public informed.

2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data of regular rating surveys of current CE Carrie Lam, former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP conducted a two-stage survey in January on the "Best Public Transportation", and the results show that the most well-known public transportation was MTR. Results of rating survey, however, show that KMB has the best CSR reputation in the sector, scoring 63.8 marks, while MTR and Citybus followed with 60.1 and 60.0 marks. POP interviewed 504 and 500 Hong Kong people by means of random telephone surveys for the first stage naming survey and second stage rating survey respectively. The sampling errors of rating figures are no greater than +/-1.8 marks at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 58%.

As for the trust and confidence indicators, POP interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong people between 3 and 4 January, 2018 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people's trust in the local government has dropped compared to four months ago. The net trust now stands at positive 7, decreased significantly by 11 percentage points. People's net trust in the Central Government and the Taiwan Government have not changed much and now stand at negative 7 and negative 25 percentage points respectively. As for the confidence indicators, people's confidence in the future of China remains the highest among the three. The latest net confidence has increased significantly by 8 percentage points to positive 45, while the net confidence in the future of Hong Kong has decreased remarkably by 9 percentage points to positive 8. Meanwhile, the percentages of people who are confident and not confident in "one country, two systems" are both 47%, giving a net confidence value of zero, slightly dropped compared to four months ago. Further analysis shows that the younger the respondent, the less one trusts the Central Government and the less confident in Hong Kong's future and "one country, two systems". The impact of the scandal about the unauthorized building works of SJ Teresa Cheng on the popularity of the government is yet to be seen in next week's release. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of net values needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 58%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[3] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Ratings of the Best Public Transportation

[4] The sample size of the rating survey is 500 successful interviews, not 500 x 58.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[5] The maximum sampling errors of various ratings are not more than +/-1.8. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling errors of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level".


Trust and Confidence Indicators

[6] The sample size of the survey is 1,000 successful interviews, not 1,000 x 58.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[7] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8%".


I. Ratings of the Best Public Transportation

In 2008, HKUPOP initiated a tracking survey series on Corporate Social Responsibility, aiming to gauge the public image of different commercial organizations in order to encourage them to become ethical companies and select the best corporations. There are a total of six modules under this survey series, namely, 1) Public Transportation, 2) Telecommunication, 3) Banks and Financial Services, 4) Real Estate and Property Development, 5) Retail, and 6) Fast Food Restaurant. From January to December 2015, the survey was sponsored by Metro Broadcast Corporation Ltd and branded as "Metro CSR Index". Results were released every month in the website of Metro Radio.

At the beginning, these surveys were conducted once every three months, with two different modules each time. From July 2017, the frequency was changed to once every six months, with one module only for each survey. The surveys were conducted in two stages. In the first stage, respondents were requested to nominate, unprompted, at most 5 corporations that they can think of. POP would then select from this list of unprompted nominees the 3 most frequently cited names for the next stage survey. During the second stage survey, respondents would be asked to rate the CSR performance for each of the shortlisted corporations using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates extremely poor performance, 100 indicates extremely good performance, and 50 means half-half.


Latest Figures

From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to figures collected in the 2016 By-census regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population and the 2017 educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution obtained from the Census and Statistics Department. The mobile sample has also been rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:


Date of survey

Effective sample size

Effective response rate

Maximum sampling error[8]

3/1/2018 (Naming survey)

504

57.0%

+/-4%

4/1/2018 (Rating survey)

500

58.5%

+/-1.8

[8] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.


The research design of our "Best Corporation" rating survey has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The corporations being rated in our latest survey were those which obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in January 2018. In the survey, respondents could name up to 5 local public transportations which they knew best. The top three corporations mentioned most frequently in the sector were: MTR, KMB and Citybus. These corporations then entered into the second stage rating survey conducted in the same month, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed corporations using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates extremely poor performance, 100 indicates extremely good performance, and 50 means half-half.

Recent ratings of the Best Public Transportation are summarized as follows:


Date of survey

9-10/1/2017

24-25/4/2017

19-20/7/2017

4/1/2018

Latest change

Sample base

505

506

503[9]

500

--

Response rate*

69.8%

74.0%

55.2%

58.5%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error[10]

Recognition rate

--

KMB

66.3{1}

63.6{1}[11]

63.1{1}

63.8+/-1.6{1}

96.3%

+0.7

MTR

64.1{2}[11]

59.0{3}[11]

62.2{3}[11]

60.1+/-1.8{2}

97.9%

-2.1[11]

Citybus

62.0{3}

59.4{2}[11]

62.2{2}[11]

60.0+/-1.5{3}

89.0%

-2.2[11]

* "Overall response rate" was used before September 2017, thereafter, "effective response rate" was used.

[9] The mobile sample was not included when survey results were released. The figures in the table above have been updated to reflect the results based on the combined landline and mobile sample. However, whether changes have gone beyond sampling errors is still determined based on the figures in the first release.

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Our latest survey showed that KMB was considered as having the best CSR reputation among local public transportation, scored 63.8 marks, while MTR and Citybus scored 60.1 and 60.0 marks respectively.

II. Trust and Confidence Indicators

Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to figures collected in the 2016 By-census regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population and the 2017 educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution obtained from the Census and Statistics Department. The mobile sample has also been rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey

Effective sample size

Effective response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[12]

3-4/1/2018

1,000

58.3%

+/-3%

[12] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.


Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments and people's confidence in the future as well as "one country, two systems" are summarized below:

Date of survey

12-15/12/16

21-24/3/17

13-15/6/17

1-6/9/17

3-4/1/18

Latest change

Sample size[13]

1,001

1,073

1,004

1,010[14]

1,000

--

Response rate*

71.6%

72.4%

69.8%

51.0%

58.3%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error[15]

--

Trust in HKSAR Government[16]

40%

48%[17]

37%[17]

49%[17]

44+/-4%

-5%[17]

Distrust in HKSAR Government[16]

36%

32%

38%[17]

31%[17]

37+/-4%

+6%[17]

Net trust

4%

16%[17]

-1%[17]

18%[17]

7+/-7%

-11%[17]

Mean value[16]

3.0

(Base=621)

3.2[17]

(Base=616)

2.9[17]

(Base=595)

3.2[17]

(Base=1,010)

3.1+/-0.1

(Base=561)

-0.1

Trust in Beijing Government[16]

39%[17]

40%

37%

36%

38+/-4%

+2%

Distrust in Beijing Government[16]

37%[17]

38%

40%

45%[17]

45+/-4%

--

Net trust

2%[17]

3%

-3%

-9%[17]

-7+/-7%

+2%

Mean value[16]

2.9[17]

(Base=601)

3.0

(Base=630)

2.9

(Base=552)

2.8

(Base=681)

2.8+/-0.1

(Base=583)

--

Trust in Taiwan Government[16]

15%

22%[17]

19%

17%

17+/-3%

--

Distrust in Taiwan Government[16]

41%[17]

43%

46%

41%

41+/-4%

--

Net trust

-26%[17]

-21%

-27%

-24%

-25+/-6%

-1%

Mean value[16]

2.5[17]

(Base=499)

2.6

(Base=564)

2.5

(Base=488)

2.5

(Base=553)

2.5+/-0.1

(Base=416)

--

Confidence in HK's future

51%

52%

49%

55%[17]

51+/-4%

-4%

No-confidence in HK's future

39%

43%

40%

39%

43+/-4%

+4%

Net confidence

12%

10%

9%

17%[17]

8+/-8%

-9%[17]

Confidence in China's future

64%[17]

64%

66%

65%[17]

70+/-4%

+5%[17]

No-confidence in China's future

29%

30%

26%

27%

25+/-3%

-2%

Net confidence

36%[17]

34%

40%

37%[17]

45+/-7%

+8%[17]

Confidence in "one country,
two systems"

47%

52%[17]

49%

49%

47+/-4%

-2%

No-confidence in "one country,
two systems"

45%

43%

43%

46%

47+/-4%

+1%

Net confidence

2%

9%

6%

3%

0+/-8%

-3%

* "Overall response rate" was used before September 2017, thereafter, "effective response rate" was used.

[13] Some questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 548 to 632, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated.

[14] The mobile sample was not included when survey results were released. The figures in the table above have been updated to reflect the results based on the combined landline and mobile sample. However, whether changes have gone beyond sampling errors is still determined based on the figures in the first release.

[15] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[16] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[17] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Latest survey revealed that 44% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 38% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 17% trusted the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are positive 7, negative 7 and negative 25 percentage points, while the mean scores of these trust indicators are 3.1, 2.8 and 2.5 respectively, meaning between "half-half" and "quite distrust" in general. On the other hand, 51% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future, 70% had confidence in China's future, while 47% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems". The three net confidence values are positive 8, positive 45 and 0 percentage points respectively.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or above. Herewith further analysis of respondents' trust in Beijing Central Government, confidence in Hong Kong's future and "one country, two systems" by age:


Date of survey: 3-4/1/2018

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall Sample

Percentage of trust /
distrust in Beijing Central Government[18]

Trust

14+/-7%
(12)

33+/-7%
(68)

48+/-6%
(144)

38+/-4%
(224)

Half-half

20+/-8%
(18)

17+/-5%
(34)

13+/-4%
(39)

15+/-3%
(90)

Distrust

67+/-10%
(60)

49+/-7%
(101)

35+/-5%
(105)

45+/-4%
(265)

Don't know /
hard to say

0+/-0%
(0)

1+/-1%
(2)

4+/-2%
(13)

3+/-1%
(16)

Total

100%
(90)

100%
(205)

100%
(301)

100%
(596)

[18] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.


Date of survey: 3-4/1/2018

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall Sample

Percentage of confidence / no-confidence
in Hong Kong's future[19]

Confidence

32+/-9%
(38)

50+/-7%
(97)

60+/-6%
(170)

51+/-4%
(305)

No-confidence

64+/-9%
(77)

44+/-7%
(86)

33+/-6%
(95)

43+/-4%
(258)

Don't know /
hard to say

4+/-4%
(5)

6+/-3%
(12)

7+/-3%
(20)

6+/-2%
(37)

Total

100%
(119)

100%
(195)

100%
(286)

100%
(599)

[19] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.


Date of survey: 3-4/1/2018

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall Sample

Percentage of confidence / no-confidence
in "one country,
two systems"[20]

Confidence

18+/-8%
(18)

50+/-7%
(101)

55+/-6%
(145)

47+/-4%
(265)

No-confidence

74+/-9%
(76)

43+/-7%
(88)

39+/-6%
(102)

47+/-4%
(267)

Don't know /
hard to say

8+/-5%
(8)

7+/-4%
(14)

6+/-3%
(15)

6+/-2%
(37)

Total

100%
(102)

100%
(204)

100%
(262)

100%
(568)

[20] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from September 1 to 6, 2017 while this survey was conducted from January 3 to 4, 2018. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

3/1/18

Retired superintendent Franklin Chu King-wai is jailed for three months and bailed of $50,000 cash pending his appeal.

2/1/18

Hong Kong shares and A shares close up nearly 600 points and hit 10-year high on the first trading day of 2018.

27/12/17

The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress passes the motion of cooperation arrangement for implementing the co-location plan.

15/12/17

Chief Executive Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing.

11/12/17

LegCo restores the debate on amendments to the Rules of Procedure.

27/11/17

The Legislative Council Commission decides to recover 11.74 millions of remuneration and operating expenses paid to Leung Kwok-hung, Law Kwun-chung, Lau Siu-lai and Yiu Chung-yim, who have been disqualified from assuming the office of Members of LegCo.

23/11/17

The Hong Kong Government held a seminar on the 19th National Congress.

18/11/17

The Hong Kong and Guangdong governments sign the Co-operation Arrangement for the Express Rail Link.

16/11/17

Basic Law Committee Chairman Li Fei delivers speech at the Basic Law Seminar in Hong Kong.

4/11/17

The National People's Congress Standing Committee passes decisions to include the national anthem law in Annex III of the Hong Kong Basic Law.

31/10/17

Carrie Lam clarifies that the figure of 800,000 public rental flats is not a ceiling.

25/10/17

Seven members of Standing Committee are elected at the First Plenary Session of the 19th Communist Party of China Central Committee.

11/10/17

Chief Executive Carrie Lam delivers her first Policy Address.


Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Chit-Fai Tai.

Our "Best Public Transportation" survey conducted in January shows that the most well-known public transportation was MTR. Results of rating survey, however, show that KMB has the best CSR reputation in the sector, scoring 63.8 marks, while MTR and Citybus followed with 60.1 and 60.0 marks.

As for the trust and confidence indicators, our survey shows that Hong Kong people's trust in the local government has dropped compared to four months ago. The net trust now stands at positive 7, decreased significantly by 11 percentage points. People's net trusts in the Central Government and the Taiwan Government have not changed much and now stand at negative 7 and negative 25 percentage points respectively.

As for the confidence indicators, people's confidence in the future of China remains the highest among the three. The latest net confidence has increased significantly by 8 percentage points to positive 45, while the net confidence in the future of Hong Kong has decreased remarkably by 9 percentage points to positive 8. Meanwhile, the percentages of people who are confident and not confident in "one country, two systems" are both 47%, giving a net confidence value of zero, slightly dropped compared to four months ago. Further analysis shows that the younger the respondent, the less one trusts the Central Government and the less confident in Hong Kong's future and "one country, two systems". The impact of the scandal about the unauthorized building works of SJ Teresa Cheng on the popularity of the government is yet to be seen in next week's release. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily".

Future Release (Tentative)

  • January 30, 2018 (Tuesday) 12pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government