HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

 

Press Release on February 13, 2018

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) | Detailed Findings (Popularity of Principal Officials) |

Special Announcements

1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples, while "effective response rate" is continued to be used to describe the survey's contact information. As for the weighting method, a two-step protocol is used. First, both the landline and mobile samples have been rim-weighted according to figures collected in the 2016 By-census regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population and the 2017 educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution obtained from the Census and Statistics Department. After that, the mobile sample was rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample, and then mixed together to produce the final results. This weighting method has proved to be feasible after three months of testing, but POP will continue to review and enhance it, and keep the public informed.

2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP today released via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data and related respondents' demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong people between 1 and 6 February, 2018 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam have not changed much since two weeks ago. Her latest popularity rating is 53.6 marks. Her latest approval rate is 47%, disapproval rate 43%, giving a net popularity of positive 4 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 50.8 marks. His approval rate is 36%, disapproval rate 22%, giving a net popularity of positive 14 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 44.3 marks, approval rate 26%, disapproval rate 38%, thus a net popularity of negative 12 percentage points. As for the newly-appointed SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 34.1 marks, approval rate 19%, disapproval rate 48%, giving a net popularity of negative 29 percentage points. Both her rating and net approval rate are at record lows among all SJs. In terms of popularity rating and approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 5 among 13 Directors have gone up while 8 have gone down. Among them, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau register significant changes in their net approval rates, up by 10 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah registers negative popularity, at negative 17 percentage points. Law Chi-kwong is currently the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 41 percentage points. According to POP's standard, no one falls under the category of "ideal" performer, Law Chi-kwong falls under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Carrie Lam, Joshua Law, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Matthew Cheung, Frank Chan, John Lee, Kevin Yeung, Nicholas Yang, Paul Chan, Lau Kong-wah and Teresa Cheng can be labeled as "mediocre". That of James Lau, Michael Wong and Patrick Nip can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No one falls into the category of "depressing" or "disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 62%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,001 successful interviews, not 1,001 x 62.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.0, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level".

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to figures collected in the 2016 By-census regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population and the 2017 educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution obtained from the Census and Statistics Department. The mobile sample has also been rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey

Effective sample size

Effective response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

1-6/2/2018

1,001

62.5%

+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.


As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size

(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]

(maximum values)

Sample size

(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]

(maximum values)

1,300

+/- 2.8%

1,350

+/- 2.7%

1,200

+/- 2.9%

1,250

+/- 2.8%

1,100

+/- 3.0%

1,150

+/- 3.0%

1,000

+/- 3.2%

1,050

+/- 3.1%

900

+/- 3.3%

950

+/- 3.2%

800

+/- 3.5%

850

+/- 3.4%

700

+/- 3.8%

750

+/- 3.7%

600

+/- 4.1%

650

+/- 3.9%

500

+/- 4.5%

550

+/- 4.3%

400

+/- 5.0%

450

+/- 4.7%

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.


Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

14-16/11/17

4-6/12/17

18-19/12/17

3-4/1/18

15-18/1/18

1-6/2/18

Latest change

Sample base

1,011

1,034

1,013

1,000

1,035

1,001

--

Effective response rate

62.8%

61.0%

64.9%

58.3%

63.6%

62.5%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error [8]

--

Rating of CE Carrie Lam

62.9[9]

55.7[9]

58.3[9]

58.7

54.4[9]

53.6+/-1.7

-0.8

Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam

54%[9]

49%[9]

49%

51%

45%[9]

47+/-3%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam

31%[9]

37%[9]

36%

36%

41%[9]

43+/-3%

+2%

Net approval rate

23%[9]

12%[9]

12%

15%

4%[9]

4+/-6%

--

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey

1-6/9/17

3-4/10/17

6-9/11/17

4-6/12/17

3-4/1/18

1-6/2/18

Latest change

Sample base[10]

551-593

533-547

700-729

720-824

725-760

748-796

--

Effective response rate

49.8%

59.5%

57.6%

61.0%

58.3%

62.5%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error [11]

--

Rating of CS Matthew Cheung

55.4

53.9

54.6

50.7[12]

53.7[12]

50.8+/-1.6

-2.9[12]

Vote of confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung

32%[12]

33%

35%

31%[12]

34%

36+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung

11%[12]

19%[12]

19%

21%

17%[12]

22+/-3%

+5%[12]

Net approval rate

21%

14%[12]

17%

9%[12]

17%[12]

14+/-5%

-3%

Rating of FS Paul Chan

42.7

40.6

43.7[12]

42.2

43.8

44.3+/-1.8

+0.5

Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan

21%[12]

22%

23%

22%

25%

26+/-3%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan

38%[12]

43%[12]

38%[12]

39%

41%

38+/-3%

-3%

Net approval rate

-17%

-21%

-15%

-17%

-16%

-12+/-6%

+4%

Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng

--

--

--

--

--

34.1+/-2.0

--

Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng

--

--

--

--

--

19+/-3%

--

Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng

--

--

--

--

--

48+/-4%

--

Net approval rate

--

--

--

--

--

-29+/-5%

--

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. These questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.0, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

Date of survey

4-6/12/17

3-4/1/18

1-6/2/18

Latest change

Sample base[13]

566-674

535-633

551-652

--

Effective response rate

61.0%

58.3%

62.5%

--

Sample base / Percentage of answer

Base

%

Base

%

Base

% &
error [14]

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong

586

43%

595

43%

587

50+/-4%

+7%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong

586

11%

595

11%

587

9+/-2%

-2%

Net approval rate

586

32%

595

31%

587

41+/-5%[16]

+10%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan

566

45%

565

46%

553

47+/-4%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan

566

8%[15]

565

5%[15]

553

7+/-2%

+2%

Net approval rate

566

37%[15]

565

40%

553

41+/-5%[16]

+1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law

642

36%

595

37%

652

44+/-4%

+7%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law

642

9%

595

5%[15]

652

7+/-2%

+2%

Net approval rate

642

27%

595

32%

652

37+/-5%

+5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau

638

41%[15]

624

42%

551

43+/-4%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau

638

9%[15]

624

8%

551

7+/-2%

-1%

Net approval rate

638

32%[15]

624

34%

551

36+/-5%

+2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau

674

23%

593

24%

603

30+/-4%

+6%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau

674

7%

593

7%

603

6+/-2%

-1%

Net approval rate

674

16%

593

17%

603

25+/-5%

+8%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

619

39%

619

38%

635

38+/-4%

--

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

619

17%

619

17%

635

18+/-3%

+1%

Net approval rate

619

22%

619

21%

635

20+/-6%

-1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee

606

29%[15]

579

34%[15]

612

34+/-4%

--

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee

606

15%[15]

579

12%

612

17+/-3%

+5%[15]

Net approval rate

606

13%[15]

579

22%[15]

612

17+/-6%

-5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan

627

28%

607

33%[15]

620

34+/-4%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan

627

21%

607

15%[15]

620

20+/-3%

+5%[15]

Net approval rate

627

7%

607

17%[15]

620

14+/-6%

-3%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong

596

23%

626

26%

618

24+/-3%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong

596

9%

626

12%

618

11+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

596

14%

626

14%

618

13+/-5%

-1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung

628

26%[15]

535

32%[15]

594

33+/-4%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung

628

24%

535

20%

594

22+/-3%

+2%

Net approval rate

628

3%

535

12%[15]

594

11+/-6%

-1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip

609

18%

599

21%

579

22+/-3%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip

609

17%[15]

599

11%[15]

579

14+/-3%

+3%

Net approval rate

609

1%[15]

599

10%[15]

579

8+/-5%

-2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang

617

29%

633

26%

591

28+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang

617

20%[15]

633

19%

591

23+/-3%

+4%[15]

Net approval rate

617

9%

633

8%

591

5+/-6%

-3%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah

600

24%[15]

583

25%

611

25+/-4%

--

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah

600

46%[15]

583

38%[15]

611

42+/-4%

+4%

Net approval rate

600

-23%[15]

583

-13%[15]

611

-17+/-6%

-4%

[13] These questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[16] Based on the figures of latest survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong and Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan are 41.0 and 40.8 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked first and second this time.


The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 53.6 marks, and 47% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is positive 4 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Matthew Cheung, FS Paul Chan and SJ Teresa Cheng were 50.8, 44.3 and 34.1 marks, and 36%, 26% and 19% would vote for their reappointments correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 14, negative 12 and negative 29 percentage points respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top 2 positions go to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong and Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, both attaining positive 41 percentage points. The 3rd and 4th places belong to Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, with net approval rates of positive 37 and positive 36 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah ranked 5th to 13th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 25, positive 20, positive 17, positive 14, positive 13, positive 11, positive 8, positive 5 and negative 17 percentage points. In other words, no Director scored a net approval rate of over 50%.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 3 to 4 January, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 1 to 6 February, 2018. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

30/1/18

Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor announces to allocate an additional $500 million to the Hospital Authority for coping with the demand caused by the winter surge.

29/1/18

Edward Yiu is confirmed his nomination for the Legislative Council By-election is valid.

27/1/18

The Returning Officer decides that the nomination of Agnes Chow for the Legislative Council By-election is invalid.

17/1/18

Joshua Wong and Raphael Wong are jailed by the High Court over the Mongkok protest site clearance case.

11/1/18

Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor attends the Legislative Council question-and-answer session.

6/1/18

Media reports on the suspected unauthorised building works found in Teresa Cheng's property.

5/1/18

Teresa Cheng takes over as the Secretary for Justice.


Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Tai.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam have not changed much since two weeks ago. Her latest popularity rating is 53.6 marks. Her latest approval rate is 47%, disapproval rate 43%, giving a net popularity of positive 4 percentage points.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 50.8 marks. His approval rate is 36%, disapproval rate 22%, giving a net popularity of positive 14 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 44.3 marks, approval rate 26%, disapproval rate 38%, thus a net popularity of negative 12 percentage points. As for the newly-appointed SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 34.1 marks, approval rate 19%, disapproval rate 48%, giving a net popularity of negative 29 percentage points. Both her rating and net approval rate are at record lows among all SJs. In terms of popularity rating and approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 5 among 13 Directors have gone up while 8 have gone down. Among them, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau register significant changes in their net approval rates, up by 10 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah registers negative popularity, at negative 17 percentage points. Law Chi-kwong is currently the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 41 percentage points.

According to POP's standard, no one falls under the category of "ideal" performer, Law Chi-kwong falls under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Carrie Lam, Joshua Law, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Matthew Cheung, Frank Chan, John Lee, Kevin Yeung, Nicholas Yang, Paul Chan, Lau Kong-wah and Teresa Cheng can be labeled as "mediocre". That of James Lau, Michael Wong and Patrick Nip can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No one falls into the category of "depressing" or "disastrous".

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (50%)

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (47%)[17]; CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (47%)[17]; Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (44%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (43%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (38%); CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (36%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (34%)[18]; Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (34%) [18]; Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (33%); Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (28%); FS Paul Chan Mo-po (26%); Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (25%); SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (19%)

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (30%, 36%); Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (24%, 35%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (22%, 36%)

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

[17] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee and CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor are 47.3% and 46.6%.

[18] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan and Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu are 34.3% and 33.7%.


Future Release (Tentative)

  • February 20, 2018 (Tuesday) 12pm to 2pm: Taiwan issues, Ratings of the Best Corporations