HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

 

Press Release on February 27, 2018

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) | (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government)

| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government) |

| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with Current Political, Economic and livelihood conditions) |

Special Announcements

1. As in previous years, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong will conduct an instant survey after the Financial Secretary delivers his Budget Speech tomorrow (February 28, 2018, Wednesday). The same survey method will be adopted as that in Policy Address instant survey last October, meaning that other than using landline and mobile samples, "panel samples" from pre-selected random samples who have agreed to be re-interviewed on the survey day would be added. The ratio of the three samples is tentatively 4:1:5. The preliminary results will be released via our "HKU POP Site" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) for public consumption, at around 9 pm, including people's satisfaction rate and rating towards the Budget. Detailed results including those of other questions will be released at noon the following day (March 1). Media interested in sponsoring these surveys are welcome to contact POP.

2. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, POP has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples, while "effective response rate" is continued to be used to describe the survey's contact information. As for the weighting method, a two-step protocol is used. First, both the landline and mobile samples have been rim-weighted according to figures collected in the 2016 By-census regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population and the 2017 educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution obtained from the Census and Statistics Department. After that, the mobile sample was rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample, and then mixed together to produce the final results. This weighting method has proved to be feasible after three months of testing, but POP will continue to review and enhance it, and keep the public informed.

3. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP today released via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data and related respondents' demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,017 Hong Kong people between 20 and 22 February 2018 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has significantly rebounded by 2.1 marks to 55.7 marks compared to two weeks ago. Her latest approval rate is 47%, disapproval rate 40%, giving a net popularity of positive 7 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has not changed much over the past two weeks. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 39%, dissatisfaction rate 38%, giving a net satisfaction rate of zero. As for people's trust in the government, the trust rate now stands at 47%, distrust rate 36%, giving a net trust of positive 11 percentage points. As for the society's appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are positive 17, negative 19 and negative 49 percentage points, while that with current economic condition is at record high since December 2007. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 64%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,017 successful interviews, not 1,017 x 63.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level".

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and the HKSAR Government. From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to figures collected in the 2016 By-census regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population and the 2017 educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution obtained from the Census and Statistics Department. The mobile sample has also been rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey

Effective sample size

Effective response rate

Maximum sampling error
of percentages[6]

20-22/2/2018

1,017

63.6%

+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.


Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and the HKSAR Government, as well as people's appraisal of society's conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

4-6/12/17

18-19/12/17

3-4/1/18

15-18/1/18

1-6/2/18

20-22/2/18

Latest change

Sample base

1,034

1,013

1,000

1,035

1,001

1,017

--

Effective response rate

61.0%

64.9%

58.3%

63.6%

62.5%

63.6%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error[7]

--

Rating of CE Carrie Lam

55.7[9]

58.3[9]

58.7

54.4[9]

53.6

55.7+/-1.7

+2.1[9]

Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam

49%[9]

49%

51%

45%[9]

47%

47+/-3%

--

Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam

37%[9]

36%

36%

41%[9]

43%

40+/-3%

-3%

Net approval rate

12%[9]

12%

15%

4%[9]

4%

7+/-6%

+3%

Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[8]

39%[9]

38%

38%

36%

41%[9]

39+/-4%

-2%

Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[8]

37%[9]

35%

39%

42%

39%

38+/-4%

-1%

Net satisfaction rate

2%[9]

3%

-1%

-6%

2%[9]

0+/-7%

-2%

Mean value[8]

2.9[9]

(Base=836)

3.0

(Base=567)

2.9

(Base=559)

2.7[9]

(Base=604)

2.9[9]

(Base=596)

2.9+/-0.1

(Base=670)

--

Trust in HKSAR Government[8]

48%[9]

48%

45%

43%

46%

47+/-4%

+1%

Distrust in HKSAR Government[8]

33%[9]

35%

36%

40%

38%

36+/-4%

-2%

Net trust

15%[9]

14%

9%

3%

8%

11+/-7%

+3%

Mean value[8]

3.1[9]

(Base=834)

3.1

(Base=567)

3.1

(Base=555)

2.9[9]

(Base=605)

3.0

(Base=597)

3.1+/-0.1

(Base=664)

+0.1

Current economic condition:
Satisfaction rate[8]

35%[9]

44%[9]

46%

45%

45%

47+/-3%

+2%

Current economic condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[8]

41%[9]

29%[9]

31%

31%

30%

30+/-3%

--

Net satisfaction rate

-7%[9]

15%[9]

15%

14%

15%

17+/-5%

+2%

Mean value[8]

2.8[9]

(Base=1,015)

3.1[9]

(Base=990)

3.1

(Base=989)

3.1

(Base=1,013)

3.1

(Base=989)

3.1+/-0.1

(Base=1,004)

--

Current livelihood condition:
Satisfaction rate[8]

25%[9]

32%[9]

33%

31%

30%

29+/-3%

-1%

Current livelihood condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[8]

53%[9]

47%[9]

47%

50%

50%

49+/-3%

-1%

Net satisfaction rate

-28%[9]

-15%[9]

-14%

-20%[9]

-19%

-19+/-5%

--

Mean value[8]

2.5[9]

(Base=1,025)

2.7[9]

(Base=1,007)

2.7

(Base=992)

2.6

(Base=1,026)

2.7

(Base=994)

2.6+/-0.1

(Base=995)

-0.1

Current political condition:
Satisfaction rate[8]

19%

16%[9]

18%

15%[9]

16%

16+/-2%

--

Current political condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[8]

58%[9]

62%[9]

64%

68%[9]

68%

65+/-3%

-3%

Net satisfaction rate

-40%

-46%[9]

-46%

-53%[9]

-53%

-49+/-5%

+4%

Mean value[8]

2.3

(Base=983)

2.1[9]

(Base=943)

2.2

(Base=962)

2.1

(Base=991)

2.1

(Base=969)

2.2+/-0.1

(Base=964)

+0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 676.

[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 55.7 marks, and 47% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is positive 7 percentage points. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 39% were satisfied, whereas 38% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at zero. The mean score is 2.9, which is close to "half-half". Meanwhile, 47% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, the net trust value is positive 11 percentage points, while the mean score is 3.1, which is close to "half-half". As for people's satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates were 47%, 29% and 16% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were positive 17, negative 19 and negative 49 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic, livelihood and political conditions were 3.1, 2.6 and 2.2, meaning between "half-half" and "quite dissatisfied" in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rating and support rate of Carrie Lam as Chief Executive by respondents' age and education attainment, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

Date of survey: 20-22/2/2018

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall sample

Rating of CE Carrie Lam[10]

42.2+/-3.5
(176)

53.2+/-2.7
(340)

62.1+/-2.4
(480)

55.6+/-1.7
(996)

Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[10]

Support

21+/-6%
(36)

46+/-5%
(156)

57+/-4%
(278)

47+/-3%
(469)

Oppose

65+/-7%
(114)

46+/-5%
(157)

28+/-4%
(134)

41+/-3%
(406)

Don't know / Hard to say

14+/-5%
(25)

8+/-3%
(27)

15+/-3%
(71)

12+/-2%
(124)

Total

100%
(176)

100%
(340)

100%
(484)

100%
(999)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.


Date of survey: 20-22/2/2018

Primary or below

Secondary

Tertiary or above

Overall sample

Rating of CE Carrie Lam[11]

64.8+/-3.5
(195)

57.0+/-2.5
(475)

48.1+/-2.7
(331)

55.6+/-1.7
(1001)

Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[11]

Support

62+/-7%
(123)

52+/-5%
(248)

31+/-5%
(102)

47+/-3%
(472)

Oppose

20+/-6%
(39)

37+/-4%
(174)

59+/-5%
(195)

41+/-3%
(408)

Don't know / Hard to say

19+/-6%
(38)

11+/-3%
(54)

10+/-3%
(34)

13+/-2%
(126)

Total

100%
(200)

100%
(476)

100%
(330)

100%
(1,006)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 1 to 6 February, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 20 to 22 February, 2018. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

10/2/18

KMB bus flips onto its side at Tai Po Highway causing 19 deaths.

9/2/18

The Housing Authority will offer more than 4,400 Home Ownership Scheme Flats next month.

7/2/18

Due to severe outbreak of influenza, the government announces early Chinese New Year holidays for kindergartens and primary schools.

6/2/18

US stocks fall tremendously and spark off worldwide stock market crash. Hong Kong is one of the stock markets' hardest hit.

3/2/18

Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress Zhang Dejiang attends a Belt and Road Initiative forum in Beijing and delivers a speech.

2/2/18

Hong Kong is rated as world's freest economy for 24 years consecutively by the US Heritage Foundation.


Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.

Our latest survey conducted in mid-February shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has significantly rebounded by 2.1 marks to 55.7 marks compared to two weeks ago. Her latest approval rate is 47%, disapproval rate 40%, giving a net popularity of positive 7 percentage points.

As for the SAR Government, its popularity has not changed much over the past two weeks. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 39%, dissatisfaction rate 38%, giving a net satisfaction rate of zero. As for people's trust in the government, the trust rate now stands at 47%, distrust rate 36%, giving a net trust of positive 11 percentage points. As for the society's appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are positive 17, negative 19 and negative 49 percentage points, while that with current economic condition is at record high since December 2007.

Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily".

Future Releases (Tentative)

  • March 1, 2018 (Thursday) 12pm to 2pm: Budget instant survey
  • March 6, 2018 (Tuesday) 12pm to 2pm: Budget first follow-up survey, Public Sentiment Index