HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

 

Press Release on May 15, 2018

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) | Detailed Findings (Popularity of Principal Officials) |

Special Announcements

1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys using a landline and mobile sample ratio of 4 to 1. Starting from April 2018, POP further increased the proportion of mobile sample, which the landline and mobile sample ratio became 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.

2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP today released via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data and related respondents' demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,017 Hong Kong people between 4 and 9 May, 2018 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has significantly increased by 3.9 marks to 57.8 compared to two weeks ago. Her latest approval rate is 49%, disapproval rate 35%, giving a net popularity of positive 13 percentage points, which has significantly increased by 9 percentage points from two weeks ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 51.7 marks. His approval rate is 32%, disapproval rate 23%, giving a net popularity of positive 9 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 39.8 marks, approval rate 15%, disapproval rate 52%, thus a net popularity of negative 38 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is also 39.8 marks, approval rate 15%, disapproval rate 36%, giving a net popularity of negative 21 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating and net approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 6 among 13 Directors have gone up, 4 have gone down while 3 remained unchanged. Among them, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung register significant changes in their net approval rates, up by 6 and down by 11 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah register negative popularity, at negative 1, negative 8 and negative 12 percentage points respectively. Sophia Chan is currently the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 45 percentage points. According to POP's standard, no one falls under the category of "ideal" performer, Sophia Chan falls under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Carrie Lam, Edward Yau, Law Chi-kwong, Wong Kam-sing, Matthew Cheung, Frank Chan, Lau Kong-wah, Kevin Yeung and Teresa Cheng can be labeled as "mediocre". That of Joshua Law, John Lee, James Lau, Michael Wong, Nicholas Yang and Patrick Nip can be labeled as "inconspicuous". Paul Chan falls into the category of "depressing" performer, while no one falls into that of "disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 60%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,017 successful interviews, not 1,017 x 59.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level".

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to figures collected in the 2016 By-census regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population and the 2017 educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution obtained from the Census and Statistics Department. The mobile sample has also been rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey

Effective sample size

Effective response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

4-9/5/2018

1,017

59.5%

+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.


As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size

(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]

(maximum values)

Sample size

(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]

(maximum values)

1,300

+/- 2.8%

1,350

+/- 2.7%

1,200

+/- 2.9%

1,250

+/- 2.8%

1,100

+/- 3.0%

1,150

+/- 3.0%

1,000

+/- 3.2%

1,050

+/- 3.1%

900

+/- 3.3%

950

+/- 3.2%

800

+/- 3.5%

850

+/- 3.4%

700

+/- 3.8%

750

+/- 3.7%

600

+/- 4.1%

650

+/- 3.9%

500

+/- 4.5%

550

+/- 4.3%

400

+/- 5.0%

450

+/- 4.7%

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.


Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

20-22/2/18

1-6/3/18

15-20/3/18

2-4/4/18

16-19/4/18

4-9/5/18

Latest change

Sample base

1,017

1,002

1,006

1,003

1,001

1,017

--

Effective response rate

63.6%

64.7%

62.5%

57.9%

56.4%

59.5%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error [8]

--

Rating of CE Carrie Lam

55.7[9]

56.3

56.8

55.6

53.9

57.8+/-1.7

+3.9[9]

Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam

47%

47%

44%

42%

45%

49+/-3%

+4%[9]

Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam

40%

41%

41%

44%

41%

35+/-3%

-6%[9]

Net approval rate

7%

6%

3%

-2%

4%

13+/-6%

+9%[9]

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey

3-4/1/18

1-6/2/18

28/2/18 [10]

1-6/3/18

2-4/4/18

4-9/5/18

Latest change

Sample base[10]

725-760

748-796

614

785-815

744-765

532-579

--

Effective response rate

58.3%

62.5%

67.5%

64.7%

57.9%

59.5%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error [11]

--

Rating of CS Matthew Cheung

53.7[12]

50.8[12]

--

53.2[12]

51.0[12]

51.7+/-2.0

+0.7

Vote of confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung

34%

36%

--

31%[12]

28%

32+/-4%

+4%

Vote of no confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung

17%[12]

22%[12]

--

20%

24%[12]

23+/-4%

-1%

Net approval rate

17%[12]

14%

--

12%

3%[12]

9+/-6%

+6%

Rating of FS Paul Chan

43.8

44.3

44.5

42.1[12]

36.2[12]

39.8+/-2.3

+3.6[12]

Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan

25%

26%

30%

24%[12]

17%[12]

15+/-3%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan

41%

38%

41%

48%[12]

61%[12]

52+/-4%

-9%[12]

Net approval rate

-16%

-12%

-12%

-24%[12]

-44%[12]

-38+/-6%

+6%

Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng

--

34.1

--

37.5[12]

37.9

39.8+/-2.2

+1.9

Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng

--

19%

--

19%

14%[12]

15+/-3%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng

--

48%

--

43%[12]

45%

36+/-4%

-9%[12]

Net approval rate

--

-29%

--

-24%

-30%[12]

-21+/-6%

+9%[12]

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. These questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. The survey conducted on 28/2/2018 was the Budget instant survey and only asked rating of FS as well as his vote of confidence.

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

Date of survey

1-6/3/18

2-4/4/18

4-9/5/18

Latest change

Sample base[13]

549-633

571-621

587-637

--

Effective response rate

64.7%

57.9%

59.5%

--

Sample base / Percentage of answer

Base

%

Base

%

Base

% &
error [14]

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan

612

47%

604

53%[15]

624

52+/-4%

-1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan

612

9%

604

6%[15]

624

7+/-2%

+1%

Net approval rate

612

38%

604

47%[15]

624

45+/-5%

-2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau

619

41%

571

42%

587

46+/-4%

+4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau

619

10%[15]

571

10%

587

10+/-2%

--

Net approval rate

619

32%

571

32%

587

37+/-5%

+5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law

627

41%

621

38%

596

41+/-4%

+3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law

627

8%

621

9%

596

6+/-2%

-3%[15]

Net approval rate

627

33%

621

29%

596

35+/-5%

+6%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong

623

44%[15]

594

49%[15]

589

46+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong

623

11%

594

12%

589

11+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

623

33%[15]

594

37%

589

34+/-6%

-3%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

633

41%

579

43%

603

40+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

633

15%

579

16%

603

12+/-3%

-4%[15]

Net approval rate

633

25%

579

27%

603

27+/-6%

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau

549

24%[15]

587

25%

629

25+/-4%

--

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau

549

6%

587

6%

629

5+/-2%

-1%

Net approval rate

549

18%[15]

587

19%

629

20+/-4%

+1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee

629

37%

585

33%

592

33+/-4%

--

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee

629

13%[15]

585

16%

592

16+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

629

24%[15]

585

17%[15]

592

17+/-6%

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong

599

27%

586

24%

637

24+/-3%

--

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong

599

9%

586

12%

637

14+/-3%

+2%

Net approval rate

599

18%

586

12%[15]

637

10+/-5%

-2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip

602

23%

572

22%

637

24+/-3%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip

602

11%

572

16%[15]

637

15+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

602

11%

572

6%

637

9+/-5%

+3%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan

610

31%

616

29%

608

30+/-4%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan

610

22%

616

28%[15]

608

23+/-3%

-5%[15]

Net approval rate

610

10%

616

1%[15]

608

7+/-6%

+6%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang

619

25%

617

25%

607

24+/-4%

-1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang

619

26%

617

26%

607

25+/-4%

-1%

Net approval rate

619

-1%

617

-1%

607

-1+/-6%

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung

586

28%[15]

620

30%

592

27+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung

586

22%

620

27%[15]

592

36+/-4%

+9%[15]

Net approval rate

586

6%

620

3%

592

-8+/-7%

-11%[15]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah

588

28%

606

27%

620

27+/-4%

--

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah

588

39%

606

42%

620

39+/-4%

-3%

Net approval rate

588

-11%

606

-16%

620

-12+/-7%

+4%

[13] These questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 57.8 marks, and 49% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is positive 13 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Matthew Cheung, FS Paul Chan and SJ Teresa Cheng were 51.7, 39.8 and 39.8 marks, and 32%, 15% and 15% would vote for their reappointments correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 9, negative 38 and negative 21 percentage points respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, attaining positive 45 percentage points. The 2nd to 4th places belong to Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, with net approval rates of positive 37, positive 35 and positive 34 percentage points respectively. Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah ranked 5th to 13th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 27, positive 20, positive 17, positive 10, positive 9, positive 7, negative 1, negative 8 and negative 12 percentage points. In other words, no Director scored a net approval rate of over 50%.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 2 to 4 April, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 4 to 9 May, 2018. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

7/5/18

The Legislative Council's Bills Committee approves the Express Rail Link co-location bill.

5/5/18

Ted Hui is arrested for snatching an Executive Officer's phone.

3/5/18

Chief Executive Carrie Lam attends the Legislative Council question-and-answer session.

26/4/18

The Task Force on Land Supply commences public consultation.

25/4/18

Democratic Party legislator Ted Hui Chi-fung snatches the phone of an Executive Officer in the Legislative Council.

23/4/18

Director of the Liaison Office Wang Zhimin attends a LegCo luncheon and delivers a speech.

21/4/18

Qiao Xiaoyang says Hong Kong independence is unconstitutional.

15/4/18

Hong Kong holds the National Security Education Day for the first time.

13/4/18

Hong Kong Monetary Authority purchases Hong Kong dollar.

7/4/18

Media continues to report on the remarks made by Benny Tai Yiu-ting, Associate Professor of the Faculty of Law of the University of Hong Kong at a Taiwan seminar that Hong Kong could consider becoming an independent state.


Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has significantly increased by 3.9 marks to 57.8 compared to two weeks ago. Her latest approval rate is 49%, disapproval rate 35%, giving a net popularity of positive 13 percentage points, which has significantly increased by 9 percentage points from two weeks ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 51.7 marks. His approval rate is 32%, disapproval rate 23%, giving a net popularity of positive 9 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 39.8 marks, approval rate 15%, disapproval rate 52%, thus a net popularity of negative 38 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is also 39.8 marks, approval rate 15%, disapproval rate 36%, giving a net popularity of negative 21 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating and net approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 6 among 13 Directors have gone up, 4 have gone down while 3 remained unchanged. Among them, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung register significant changes in their net approval rates, up by 6 and down by 11 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah register negative popularity, at negative 1, negative 8 and negative 12 percentage points respectively. Sophia Chan is currently the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 45 percentage points.

According to POP's standard, no one falls under the category of "ideal" performer, Sophia Chan falls under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Carrie Lam, Edward Yau, Law Chi-kwong, Wong Kam-sing, Matthew Cheung, Frank Chan, Lau Kong-wah, Kevin Yeung and Teresa Cheng can be labeled as "mediocre". That of Joshua Law, John Lee, James Lau, Michael Wong, Nicholas Yang and Patrick Nip can be labeled as "inconspicuous". Paul Chan falls into the category of "depressing" performer, while no one falls into that of "disastrous".

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (52%)

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (49%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (46%)[16]; Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (46%)[16]; Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (40%); CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (32%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (30%); Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (27%)[17]; Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (27%)[17]; SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (15%)

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (41%, 47%); Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (33%, 48%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (25%, 30%); Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (24%, 39%) [18]; Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (24%, 49%) [18]; Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (24%, 38%) [18]

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

FS Paul Chan Mo-po (52%)

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

[16] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong are 46.4% and 45.9%.

[17] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung are 27.2% and 27.1%.

[18] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip are 24.2%, 24.0% and 23.9%.


Future Release (Tentative)

  • May 23, 2018 (Wednesday) 12pm to 2pm: Social, Freedom and Legal Indicators, Ratings of the Best Corporations