HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the Government and results of Policy Address second follow-up surveyBack

 

Press Release on October 30, 2018

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) |

| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government) |

| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with Current Political, Economic and livelihood conditions) |

| Detailed Findings (Policy Address Feature Page) |

Special Announcements

1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys using a landline and mobile sample ratio of 4 to 1. Starting from April 2018, POP further increased the proportion of mobile sample, which the landline and mobile sample ratio became 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.

2. In September 2017, POP started to use “effective response rate” to report surveys’ contact information. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

3. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP today released via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data and related respondents’ demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong people between 22 and 24 October 2018 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Carrie Lam has recovered from its historical low since two weeks ago. Her popularity rating is now 51.7 marks, approval rate at 41%, disapproval rate 42%, giving a net popularity of negative 1 percentage point. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of support rate. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has not changed much since a month ago. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 37%, dissatisfaction rate 42%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 4 percentage points. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. People’s net satisfaction of the three conditions are all negative, they are negative 9, negative 25 and negative 41 percentage points respectively.

As for the Policy Address, according to our instant survey, among respondents who had some knowledge of the first Address of Carrie Lam, net satisfaction was negative 1 percentage point and satisfaction rating at 48.5 marks. In our first follow-up survey, it remained at negative 1 percentage point, while satisfaction rating was 50.5 marks. The second follow-up survey conducted two weeks later shows that net satisfaction has further decreased to negative 9 percentage points, while satisfaction rating is at 49.7 marks. People’s net satisfaction with Carrie Lam’s policy direction also decreased to positive 2 percentage points. But these drops have not reached a statistically significant level. All in all, after many rounds of discussion, people’s appraisal of the Policy Address has shown no improvement but turned slightly more negative.

The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 63%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 63.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of ratings not more than +/-2.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Contact Information

From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey

Sample size

Effective response rate

Maximum sampling error
of percentages[6]

22-24/10/2018

1,006

63.4%

+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.


I. Popularity of CE and the Government

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

20-22/8/18

3-6/9/18

18-20/9/18

2-4/10/18

10/10/18 [7]

22-24/10/18

Latest change

Sample base

1,022

1,030

1,002

1,002

584

1,006

--

Effective response rate

53.0%

50.4%

55.6%

46.8%

65.9%

63.4%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error[8]

--

Rating of CE Carrie Lam

55.3

57.3

50.8[9]

52.3

47.6[9]

51.7+/-1.7

+4.0[9]

Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam

49%

48%

40%[9]

44%

37%[9]

41+/-3%

+4%

Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam

35%[9]

38%

45%[9]

40%[9]

48%[9]

42+/-3%

-5%[9]

Net approval rate

14%[9]

10%

-4%[9]

4%[9]

-10%[9]

-1+/-6%

+9%

[7] This survey was the Policy Address instant poll.

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 51.7 marks, and 41% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is negative 1 percentage point.

Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government as well as people’s appraisal of society's conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

14-21/6/18

3-5/7/18

18-23/7/18

20-22/8/18

18-20/9/18

22-24/10/18

Latest change

Sample base

1,000

1,001

1,002

1,022

1,002

1,006

--

Effective response rate

59.6%

49.5%

49.0%

53.0%

55.6%

63.4%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error[10]

--

Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[11]

35%

39%

32%[12]

37%

37%

37+/-4%

--

Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[11]

44%

39%

43%

40%

45%

42+/-4%

-3%

Net satisfaction rate

-10%

0%

-11%[12] [13]

-3%

-8%

-4+/-8%

+3%

Mean value[11]

2.7

(Base=625)

2.9

(Base=567)

2.7[12] [13]

(Base=582)

2.8

(Base=541)

2.8

(Base=597)

2.8+/-0.1

(Base=529)

+0.1

Current economic condition:
Satisfaction rate[11]

45%

43%

--

40%

40%

33+/-3%

-7%[12]

Current economic condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[11]

31%

33%

--

33%

37%[12]

42+/-3%

+4%[12]

Net satisfaction rate

13%

10%

--

7%

2%

-9+/-5%

-11%[12]

Mean value[11]

3.1

(Base=978)

3.1

(Base=987)

--

3.0

(Base=998)

2.9

(Base=975)

2.8+/-0.1

(Base=967)

-0.1[12]

Current livelihood condition:
Satisfaction rate[11]

28%

31%

--

29%

30%

27+/-3%

-3%

Current livelihood condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[11]

51%

48%

--

51%

50%

52+/-3%

+2%

Net satisfaction rate

-23%

-16%

--

-23%

-20%

-25+/-5%

-5%

Mean value[11]

2.6

(Base=981)

2.7

(Base=992)

--

2.6

(Base=1,006)

2.6

(Base=986)

2.6+/-0.1

(Base=984)

-0.1

Current political condition:
Satisfaction rate[11]

22%

19%

--

16%

21%[12]

18+/-2%

-3%

Current political condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[11]

59%[12]

61%

--

63%

57%[12]

59+/-3%

+2%

Net satisfaction rate

-37%[12]

-42%

--

-47%

-37%[12]

-41+/-5%

-4%

Mean value[11]

2.3

(Base=924)

2.3

(Base=948)

--

2.2

(Base=965)

2.3[12]

(Base=914)

2.2+/-0.1

(Base=910)

-0.1

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Since October 2018, POP started to conduct tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit the POP Site for details. This question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample size for this survey is 538.

[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the new weighting method was used on the previous dataset, the changes would not have gone beyond the sampling errors.


Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 37% were satisfied, whereas 42% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 4 percentage points. The mean score is 2.8, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general. As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates were 33%, 27% and 18% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were negative 9, negative 25 and negative 41 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic, livelihood and political conditions were 2.8, 2.6 and 2.2, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Carrie Lam as Chief Executive by respondents’ age and education attainment, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:


Date of survey: 22-24/10/2018

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall sample

Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[14]

Support

18+/-6%
(30)

37+/-5%
(122)

52+/-5%
(250)

41+/-3%
(402)

Oppose

73+/-7%
(122)

47+/-6%
(154)

30+/-4%
(141)

43+/-3%
(417)

Don’t know / Hard to say

10+/-5%
(17)

16+/-4%
(52)

18+/-4%
(86)

16+/-2%
(154)

Total

100%
(169)

100%
(328)

100%
(476)

100%
(973)

[14] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.


Date of survey: 22-24/10/2018

Primary or below

Secondary

Tertiary or above

Overall sample

Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[15]

Support

51+/-7%
(98)

49+/-5%
(227)

25+/-5%
(81)

41+/-3%
(406)

Oppose

28+/-6%
(53)

34+/-4%
(159)

63+/-5%
(207)

42+/-3%
(419)

Don’t know / Hard to say

21+/-6%
(40)

17+/-3%
(79)

13+/-4%
(41)

16+/-2%
(160)

Total

100%
(192)

100%
(465)

100%
(329)

100%
(985)

[15] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 18 to 20 September, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 22 to 24 October, 2018. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

24/10/18

The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge officially commences operation.

16/10/18

The traffic is paralyzed as four MTR lines encounter signalling issues.

14/10/18

People protest against Lantau Tomorrow Vision.

12/10/18

The returning officer declares Lau Siu-lai’s nomination for Legislative Council Kowloon West by-election invalid.

11/10/18

Hong Kong stock market drops sharply after US falls.

10/10/18

Chief Executive Carrie Lam delivers the 2018 Policy Address.

28/9/18

Price Indices of Private Domestic Property fall for the first time in 29 months.

27/9/18

Hong Kong Banks increase prime rate for the first time in twelve years.

24/9/18

An order banning the Hong Kong National Party’s operation is gazetted by the government.

22/9/18

The Hong Kong Section of Express Rail Link will be launched on September 23.

18/9/18

Media continues to report on Typhoon Mangkhut.


II. Policy Address Second Follow-up Survey

Background

Since 1992, POP has been conducting Policy Address instant surveys every year. In 1998, we expanded our instant surveys to cover the Budget Talks. In general, such instant polls which measure people’s instant reactions would be repeated later by follow-up surveys which measure people’s more matured reactions. In 2008, we further split our instant survey into two. In our first survey, we measure people’s overall appraisal of the Policy Address, their rating of the Policy Address, their change in confidence towards Hong Kong’s future, and CE’s popularity. One to two days later, we would conduct our first follow-up survey to study any change in people’s satisfaction of the Policy Address. Our second follow-up survey would then be conducted a short period later, to repeat our measurement of the change of people’s satisfaction of the Policy Address. We believe this is a better way to study public opinion: measuring people’s instant reaction first, and then repeat our measurement some time later to check people’s more matured reactions. Our Policy Address instant and first follow-up surveys this year were released on October 10, 11 and 16 respectively, while the findings of the second follow-up survey are released today.

Latest Figures

Results of the second follow-up survey of Policy Address, together with the instant and first follow-up surveys, for Carrie Lam’s first Policy Address in 2017 and second Policy Address in 2018 are tabulated below:

10/2017

10/2018

Instant survey

First follow-up survey

Second follow-up survey

Change

Instant survey

First follow-up survey

Second follow-up survey

Latest

change

Date of survey

11/10/17

12-13/10/17

6-7/11/17

--

10/10/18

11-12/10/18

22-24/10/18

--

Sample base

673[16]

508

501

--

584[16]

503

1,006

--

Effective
response rate*

63.5%

60.8%

59.5%

--

65.9%

65.3%

63.4%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

--

Finding

Finding

Finding & error[17]

--

Policy Address: Satisfaction rate[18]

48%

43%[19]

39%

-4%

33%

32%

30+/-4%

-2%

Policy Address: Dissatisfaction rate[18]

14%

24%[19]

32%

+8%[19]

34%

33%

39+/-4%

+6%[19]

Net value

34%

18%[19]

7%

-11%[19]

-1%

-1%

-9+/-7%

-8%

Mean value[18]

3.5

(Base=466)

3.3[19]

(Base=451)

3.0

(Base=462)

-0.3[19]

2.9

(Base=484)

2.8

(Base=437)

2.8+/-0.1

(Base=485)

-0.1

Rating of Policy Address (0 to 100 marks)

62.4

60.6

54.2

-6.4[19]

48.5

50.5

49.7+/-2.3

-0.8

Satisfaction rate of policy direction[18]

--

50%[19]

41%

-9%[19]

--

42%[19]

39+/-4%

-3%

Dissatisfaction rate of policy direction[18]

--

22%[19]

30%

+8%[19]

--

35%[19]

36+/-4%

+1%

Net value

--

28%[19]

12%

-16%[19]

--

7%[19]

2+/-7%

-5%

Mean value[18]

--

3.4[19]

(Base=465)

3.1

(Base=472)

-0.3[19]

--

3.0[19]

(Base=476)

2.9+/-0.1

(Base=516)

--

* In July 2018, POP revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[16] Excluding respondents who had not heard of / did not have any knowledge of the Policy Address. The sub-sample size in 2017 was 526 and that in 2018 was 534.

[17] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[18] Collapsed from a 5-point scale, the mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of importance level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[19] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Latest second follow-up survey revealed that 30% of the respondents were satisfied with the Policy Address and 39% were dissatisfied, giving net satisfaction of negative 9 percentage points. The mean score is 2.8, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general. The average rating registered for the Policy Address was 49.7 marks. As for people’s satisfaction with Carrie Lam’s policy direction, 39% of the respondents showed satisfaction while 36% were not satisfied, giving net satisfaction of positive 2 percentage points. The mean score is 2.9, which is close to “half-half” in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the satisfaction rate and rating of the Policy Address by respondents’ age and education attainment, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

Date of survey: 22-24/10/2018

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall sample

Satisfaction rating of
Policy Address[20]

32.3+/-5.1
(86)

45.4+/-3.7
(182)

59.2+/-3.0
(238)

49.6+/-2.3
(505)

Satisfaction / Dissatisfaction rate of Policy Address [20]

Satisfied

12+/-7%
(11)

22+/-6%
(44)

41+/-6%
(104)

30+/-4%
(158)

Half-half

9+/-6%
(8)

24+/-6%
(46)

21+/-5%
(53)

20+/-3%
(107)

Dissatisfied

72+/-10%
(63)

41+/-7%
(80)

27+/-6%
(68)

39+/-4%
(211)

Don’t know / Hard to say

7+/-5%
(6)

13+/-5%
(26)

10+/-4%
(26)

11+/-3%
(58)

Total

100%
(88)

100%
(196)

100%
(250)

100%
(534)

[20] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.



Date of survey: 22-24/10/2018

Primary or below

Secondary

Tertiary or above

Overall sample

Satisfaction rating of
Policy Address[21]

62.0+/-4.5
(88)

53.1+/-3.0
(252)

38.7+/-4.0
(170)

49.8+/-2.3
(510)

Satisfaction / Dissatisfaction rate of Policy Address [21]

Satisfied

40+/-10%
(37)

35+/-6%
(94)

17+/-6%
(31)

30+/-4%
(162)

Half-half

16+/-8%
(15)

24+/-5%
(65)

15+/-5%
(27)

20+/-3%
(107)

Dissatisfied

29+/-9%
(28)

28+/-5%
(76)

60+/-7%
(106)

39+/-4%
(210)

Don’t know / Hard to say

14+/-7%
(14)

13+/-4%
(34)

8+/-4%
(14)

11+/-3%
(61)

Total

100%
(94)

100%
(269)

100%
(178)

100%
(541)

[21] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.


Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Tai.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Carrie Lam has recovered from its historical low since two weeks ago. Her popularity rating is now 51.7 marks, approval rate at 41%, disapproval rate 42%, giving a net popularity of negative 1 percentage point. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of support rate. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has not changed much since a month ago. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 37%, dissatisfaction rate 42%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 4 percentage points. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. People’s net satisfaction of the three conditions are all negative, they are negative 9, negative 25 and negative 41 percentage points respectively. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.

As for the Policy Address, according to our instant survey, among respondents who had some knowledge of the first Address of Carrie Lam, net satisfaction was negative 1 percentage point and satisfaction rating at 48.5 marks. In our first follow-up survey, it remained at negative 1 percentage point, while satisfaction rating was 50.5 marks. The second follow-up survey conducted two weeks later shows that net satisfaction has further decreased to negative 9 percentage points, while satisfaction rating is at 49.7 marks. People’s net satisfaction with Carrie Lam’s policy direction also decreased to positive 2 percentage points. But these drops have not reached a statistically significant level. All in all, after many rounds of discussion, people’s appraisal of the Policy Address has shown no improvement but turned slightly more negative.

Future Release (Tentative)

  • November 6, 2018 (Tuesday) 12pm to 2pm: Core social indicators, Public Sentiment Index