HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the Government and ratings of the best real estate and property development companiesBack

 

Press Release on January 29, 2019

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) | (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government) |

| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with Current Political, Economic and livelihood conditions) |

| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government) |

| Detailed Findings (Ratings of the Best Real Estate and Property Development Companies) |

Contact Information

Date of survey

:

7-11/1/2019 (Naming of real estate and property development companies)
21-24/1/2019 (Other items)

Survey method

:

Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers

Target population

:

Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above

Sample size[1]

:

1,007 (Naming of real estate and property development companies)
1,000 (Other items)

Effective response rate[2]

:

55.6% (Naming of real estate and property development companies)
59.0% (Other items)

Sampling error[3]

:

Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-1.9 at 95% confidence level

Weighting method[4]

:

Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1] Starting from April 2018, POP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.

[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.


Popularity of CE and the Government

Latest Figures

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong today released via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data and related respondents’ demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

1-6/11/18

15-19/11/18

3-6/12/18

17-20/12/18

7-11/1/19

21-24/1/19

Latest change

Sample size

1,002

1,000

1,005

1,000

1,007

1,000

--

Response rate

58.9%

67.9%

54.6%

60.6%

55.6%

59.0%

--

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

--

Rating of CE Carrie Lam

52.3

50.2

50.2

56.4[5]

50.9[5]

45.5+/-1.7

-5.4[5]

Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam

40%

40%

39%

49%[5]

37%[5]

32+/-3%

-5%[5]

Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam

45%

44%

47%

39%[5]

48%[5]

52+/-3%

+4%

Net approval rate

-5%

-4%

-7%

10%[5]

-11%[5]

-20+/-6%

-9%[5]

[5] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 45.5 marks, and 32% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is negative 20 percentage points.

Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government as well as people’s appraisal of society's conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

20-22/8/18

18-20/9/18

22-24/10/18

15-19/11/18

17-20/12/18

21-24/1/19

Latest change

Sample size[6]

1,022

1,002

1,006

1,000

1,000

1,000

--

Response rate

53.0%

55.6%

63.4%

67.9%

60.6%

59.0%

--

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

--

Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[7]

37%

37%

37%

35%

42%[8]

27+/-4%

-15%[8]

Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[7]

40%

45%

42%

46%

36%[8]

49+/-4%

+13%[8]

Net satisfaction rate

-3%

-8%

-4%

-11%

5%[8]

-23+/-7%

-28%[8]

Mean value[7]

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

3.0[8]

2.5+/-0.1

-0.5[8]

Current economic condition:
Satisfaction rate[7]

40%

40%

33%[8]

37%[8]

40%

31+/-3%

-9%[8]

Current economic condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[7]

33%

37%[8]

42%[8]

39%

32%[8]

41+/-3%

+9%[8]

Net satisfaction rate

7%

2%

-9%[8]

-2%

8%[8]

-10+/-5%

-18%[8]

Mean value[7]

3.0

2.9

2.8[8]

2.9

3.0[8]

2.8+/-0.1

-0.3[8]

Current livelihood condition:
Satisfaction rate[7]

29%

30%

27%

25%

30%[8]

21+/-3%

-9%[8]

Current livelihood condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[7]

51%

50%

52%

53%

46%[8]

56+/-3%

+9%[8]

Net satisfaction rate

-23%

-20%

-25%

-28%

-16%[8]

-34+/-5%

-18%[8]

Mean value[7]

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.7[8]

2.4+/-0.1

-0.3[8]

Current political condition:
Satisfaction rate[7]

16%

21%[8]

18%

19%

20%

18+/-2%

-2%

Current political condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[7]

63%

57%[8]

59%

58%

56%

62+/-3%

+6%[8]

Net satisfaction rate

-47%

-37%[8]

-41%

-39%

-36%

-43+/-5%

-8%[8]

Mean value[7]

2.2

2.3[8]

2.2

2.2

2.4

2.2+/-0.1

-0.1[8]

[6] The question on the satisfaction of SARG performance only uses sub-samples of the surveys concerned. The sub-sample size for this survey is 533.

[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit the POP Site for details.

[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 27% were satisfied, whereas 49% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 23 percentage points. The mean score is 2.5, which is between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general. As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates were 31%, 21% and 18% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were negative 10, negative 34 and negative 43 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic, livelihood and political conditions were 2.8, 2.4 and 2.2, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.

Recent figures regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

14-21/6/18

3-5/7/18

18-23/7/18

3-6/9/18

15-19/11/18

21-24/1/19

Latest change

Sample size[9]

634

570

595

515

553

532

--

Response rate

59.6%

49.5%

49.0%

50.4%

67.9%

59.0%

--

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

--

Trust in HKSAR Government[10 ]

51%

45%[11]

46%

51%

45%[11]

44+/-4%

-1%

Distrust in HKSAR Government[10]

35%

36%

37%

36%

39%

37+/-4%

-2%

Net trust

16%

9%

9%

15%

6%

7+/-8%

--

Mean value[10]

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.0+/-0.1

--

[9] This question only uses sub-samples of the surveys concerned

[10] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit the POP Site for details.

[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 44% of the respondents expressed trust. The net trust value is positive 7 percentage points, while the mean score is 3.0, which is close to “half-half”.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rating and support rate of Carrie Lam as Chief Executive by respondents’ age and education attainment, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

Date of survey: 21-24/1/2019

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall sample

Rating of CE Carrie Lam[12 ]

34.9+/-3.9
(166)

44.0+/-2.9
(331)

50.2+/-2.5
(476)

45.5+/-1.7
(972)

Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[ 12]

Support

22+/-6%
(36)

29+/-5%
(96)

37+/-4%
(179)

32+/-3%
(312)

Oppose

67+/-7%
(113)

55+/-5%
(181)

45+/-5%
(216)

52+/-3%
(510)

Don’t know / Hard to say

12+/-5%
(19)

16+/-4%
(52)

17+/-3%
(84)

16+/-2%
(155)

Total

100%
(169)

100%
(329)

100%
(479)

100%
(976)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.


Date of survey: 21-24/1/2019

Primary or below

Secondary

Tertiary or above

Overall sample

Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[ 13]

Support

38+/-7%
(71)

32+/-4%
(150)

29+/-5%
(94)

32+/-3%
(315)

Oppose

42+/-7%
(79)

52+/-5%
(245)

57+/-5%
(187)

52+/-3%
(511)

Don’t know / Hard to say

21+/-6%
(39)

15+/-3%
(71)

14+/-4%
(45)

16+/-2%
(156)

Total

100%
(190)

100%
(466)

100%
(326)

100%
(982)

[13] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.


Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 17 to 20 December, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 21 to 24 January, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

22/1/19

The government withdraws the motion in support of the cross-harbour tunnel toll adjustment plan.

20/1/19

The Association of Hong Kong Nursing Staff organizes a protest to demand action over manpower shortages.

19/1/19

The Central-Wan Chai Bypass opens to traffic.

18/1/19

The government announces a new Employment Support Supplement under the CSSA scheme.

10/1/19

The Government will raise the eligible age for elderly CSSA from 60 to 65, which leads to criticisms.

9/1/19

The National Anthem Bill will be tabled in the Legislative Council on January 23.

8/1/19

The Government releases the report submitted by the Independent Review Committee on Hong Kong’s Franchised Bus Service.

31/12/18

The Task Force on Land Supply submits its report to the government.

26/12/18

Teresa Cheng claims it is unnecessary to seek external legal advice on the UGL case.

21/12/18

The government announces an increase in the proportion of public housing in the “Long Term Housing Strategy” annual report.


Ratings of the Best Real Estate and Property Development Companies

Background

In 2008, POP initiated a tracking survey series on Corporate Social Responsibility, aiming to gauge the public image of different commercial organizations in order to encourage them to become ethical companies and select the best corporations. There are a total of six modules under this survey series, namely, 1) Public Transportation, 2) Telecommunication, 3) Banks and Financial Services, 4) Real Estate and Property Development, 5) Retail, and 6) Fast Food Restaurant. At the beginning, these surveys were conducted once every three months, with two different modules each time. From July 2017, the frequency was changed to once every six months, with one module only for each survey. From July 2018, the frequency was further changed to once every year, with one module only for each survey.

The surveys were conducted in two stages. In the first stage naming survey, respondents were requested to nominate, unprompted, at most five relevant corporations that they were most familiar with. The three most frequently cited names would enter the next stage. During the second stage rating survey, respondents would be asked to rate the CSR performance for each of the shortlisted corporations using a 0-100 scale, in which 0 indicates extremely poor performance, 100 indicates extremely good performance, and 50 means half-half.

Latest Figures

In the naming survey, the real estate and property development companies mentioned most frequently were Sun Hung Kai Properties, Cheung Kong Property and Henderson Land Development. The latest ratings of these corporations are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

20-21/2/17

16-18/5/17

16-18/10/17

18-19/4/18

21-24/1/19

Latest change

Sample size[14]

503

521

546

503

519

--

Response rate

71.7%

69.9%

63.0%

56.7%

59.0%

--

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

Recognition rate

--

Sun Hung Kai Properties

53.1

57.7[15]

52.1[15]

48.4[15]

49.6+/-1.8

84%

+1.2

Henderson Land Development

--

56.6

52.0[15]

50.7

48.8+/-1.9

81%

-1.8

Cheung Kong Property

49.9

54.4[15]

49.8[15]

50.3

47.9+/-1.9

85%

-2.4

[14] These questions may only use sub-samples of the surveys concerned. Such sub-sample sizes have been reflected in the table.

[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Our latest survey showed that Sun Hung Kai Properties was considered as having the best CSR reputation among local real estate and property development companies, scored 49.6 marks, while Henderson Land Development and Cheung Kong Property scored 48.8 and 47.9 marks respectively.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam continued to plunge in late January after the dramatic drop two weeks ago. Her popularity rating drops significantly by 5.4 to 45.5 marks. Her latest approval rate is 32%, disapproval rate 52%, giving a net popularity of negative 20 percentage points, also a significant decrease of 9 percentage points compared to two weeks ago. Her latest popularity rating, approval rate and net popularity all register record lows since she took office. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating.

As for the SAR Government, its popularity has also significantly decreased over the past month. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 27%, dissatisfaction rate 49%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 23 percentage points, a huge drop of 28 percentage points compared to one month ago, also a new low for the current administration. As for people’s trust in the government, the trust rate now stands at 44%, distrust rate 37%, giving a net trust of positive 7 percentage points. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are negative 10, negative 34 and negative 43 percentage points. Compared to one month ago, all three net satisfaction rates registered significant drops. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.

As for the best real estate and property development companies, our latest survey shows that the most well-known relevant corporation was Sun Hung Kai Properties. Results of rating survey also show that Sun Hung Kai Properties has the best CSR reputation in the sector, scoring 49.6 marks, followed by Henderson Land Development and Cheung Kong Property, with 48.8 and 47.9 marks respectively.

Future Release (Tentative)

  • February 4, 2019 (Monday) 12pm to 2pm: Media performance, Public Sentiment Index