HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

 

Press Release on February 12, 2019

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) | Detailed Findings (Popularity of Principal Officials) |

Contact Information

Date of survey

:

29/1-8/2/2019

Survey method

:

Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers

Target population

:

Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above

Sample size[1]

:

1,000

Effective response rate[2]

:

63.0%

Sampling error[3]

:

Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level

Weighting method[4]

:

Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1] Starting from April 2018, POP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.

[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.


Latest Figures

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong today released via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data and related respondents’ demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

15-19/11/18

3-6/12/18

17-20/12/18

7-11/1/19

21-24/1/19

29/1-8/2/19

Latest change

Sample size

1,000

1,005

1,000

1,007

1,000

1,000

--

Response rate

67.9%

54.6%

60.6%

55.6%

59.0%

63.0%

--

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

--

Rating of CE Carrie Lam

50.2

50.2

56.4[5]

50.9[5]

45.5[5]

47.4+/-1.8

+1.8

Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam

40%

39%

49%[5]

37%[5]

32%[5]

35+/-3%

+3%

Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam

44%

47%

39%[5]

48%[5]

52%

49+/-3%

-3%

Net approval rate

-4%

-7%

10%[5]

-11%[5]

-20%[5]

-14+/-6%

+6%

[5] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey

3-6/9/18

2-4/10/18

1-6/11/18

3-6/12/18

7-11/1/19

29/1-8/2/19

Latest change

Sample size[6]

551-565

535-539

541-558

506-518

538-576

511-542

--

Response rate

50.4%

46.8%

58.9%

54.6%

55.6%

63.0%

--

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

--

Rating of CS Matthew Cheung

51.5

48.0[7]

47.8

44.8

47.4

46.4+/-2.2

-1.0

Vote of confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung

33%

28%

28%

28%

26%

27+/-4%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung

24%

23%

28%

27%

24%

24+/-4%

--

Net approval rate

9%

6%

1%

1%

2%

2+/-6%

--

Rating of FS Paul Chan

38.9

41.3

37.1[7]

37.6

40.2

37.6+/-2.4

-2.6

Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan

20%

23%

21%

18%

22%

22+/-4%

--

Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan

48%

43%

50%[7]

49%

47%

48+/-4%

+1%

Net approval rate

-29%

-19%

-29%[7]

-31%

-25%

-26+/-7%

-1%

Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng

41.2

39.2

36.7

37.1

30.4[7]

31.3+/-2.4

+0.8

Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng

21%

18%

16%

13%

11%

13+/-3%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng

32%

34%

38%

39%

59%[7]

51+/-4%

-8%[7]

Net approval rate

-11%

-17%

-23%

-27%

-48%[7]

-38+/-6%

+11%[7]

[6] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. These questions only use sub-samples of the surveys concerned; the sample size for each question also varies.

[7] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates [8]:

Date of survey

1-6/11/18

3-6/12/18

7-11/1/19

29/1-8/2/19

Latest change

Sample size[9]

575-621

583-623

561-630

566-622

--

Response rate

58.9%

54.6%

55.6%

63.0%

--

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan

46%

47%

45%

43+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan

10%

12%

10%

12+/-3%

+2%

Net approval rate

36%

34%

34%

31+/-5%

-4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau

39%

39%

33%[10]

39+/-4%

+6%[10]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau

13%

14%

13%

12+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

26%

25%

20%

27+/-5%

+7%[10]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

29%

29%

27%

33+/-4%

+6%[10]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

30%[10]

23%[10]

25%

17+/-3%

-8%[10]

Net approval rate

-1%[10]

6%

2%

16+/-6%

+14%[10]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law

37%

34%

37%

31+/-4%

-5%[10]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law

11%

12%

8%[10]

15+/-3%

+7%[10]

Net approval rate

25%

22%

29%

16+/-6%

-13%[10]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee

31%

31%

27%

32+/-4%

+5%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee

25%[10]

19%[10]

22%

17+/-3%

-4%

Net approval rate

6%[10]

12%

5%

14+/-6%

+9%[10]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau

21%

19%

17%

21+/-3%

+5%[10]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau

10%

10%

11%

10+/-2%

-1%

Net approval rate

10%

9%

6%

12+/-4%

+6%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong

24%

21%

19%

20+/-3%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong

19%[10]

19%

13%[10]

15+/-3%

+1%

Net approval rate

4%

2%

6%

5+/-5%

-1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip

21%

18%

16%

20+/-3%

+4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip

20%

18%

14%

18+/-3%

+3%

Net approval rate

1%

1%

2%

2+/-5%

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong

42%

39%

37%

27+/-4%

-9%[10]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong

17%

17%

14%

26+/-4%

+12%[10]

Net approval rate

25%

22%

22%

1+/-6%

-21%[10]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang

23%

22%

17%[10]

22+/-3%

+5%[10]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang

30%[10]

29%

25%

23+/-3%

-2%

Net approval rate

-7%

-7%

-7%

-1+/-5%

+6%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung

25%[10]

23%

19%

24+/-4%

+5%[10]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung

37%[10]

39%

33%[10]

32+/-4%

-1%

Net approval rate

-13%[10]

-16%

-14%

-7+/-6%

+6%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah

24%

21%

19%

24+/-3%

+4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah

39%

42%

42%

33+/-4%

-10%[10]

Net approval rate

-16%

-21%

-23%

-9+/-6%

+14%[10]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan

25%

21%

21%

22+/-3%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan

40%

40%

41%

36+/-4%

-4%

Net approval rate

-15%

-19%

-19%

-14+/-6%

+5%

[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[9] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. These questions only use sub-samples of the surveys concerned; the sample size for each question also varies.

[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 47.4 marks, and 35% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is negative 14 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Matthew Cheung, FS Paul Chan and SJ Teresa Cheng were 46.4, 37.6 and 31.3 marks, while 27%, 22% and 13% would vote for their reappointments correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 2, negative 26 and negative 38 percentage points respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, attaining positive 31 percentage points. The 2nd place belongs to Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau with a net approval rate of positive 27 percentage points. Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan ranked 3rd to 13th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 16, positive 16, positive 14, positive 12, positive 5, positive 2, positive 1, negative 1, negative 7, negative 9 and negative 14 percentage points. In other words, no Director scored a net approval rate of over 50%.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 7 to 11 January, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 29 January to 8 February, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

31/1/19

Media continues to report on problems about the construction of the Shatin to Central Link.

30/1/19

More problems about the construction of the Hung Hom Station at the Shatin to Central Link are discovered and inspection documents are found missing.

29/1/19

The government announces $500 million has been reserved for the Hospital Authority to cope with the flu season.

26/1/19

Public sector doctors gather to voice their grievances over staff shortages.

24/1/19

Due to severe outbreak of influenza, the government announces early Chinese New Year holidays for kindergartens.

22/1/19

The government withdraws the motion in support of the cross-harbour tunnel toll adjustment plan.

20/1/19

The Association of Hong Kong Nursing Staff organizes a protest to demand action over manpower shortages.

19/1/19

The Central-Wan Chai Bypass opens to traffic.

18/1/19

The government announces a new Employment Support Supplement under the CSSA scheme.

10/1/19

The Government will raise the eligible age for elderly CSSA from 60 to 65, which leads to criticisms.

9/1/19

The National Anthem Bill will be tabled in the Legislative Council on January 23.

8/1/19

The Government releases the report submitted by the Independent Review Committee on Hong Kong’s Franchised Bus Service.


Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Tai.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam have slightly rebounded from the historical low two weeks ago. Her latest popularity rating is 47.4 marks, approval rate 35%, disapproval rate 49%, giving a net popularity of negative 14 percentage points. All changes registered are within sampling errors.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 46.4 marks, approval rate 27%, disapproval rate 24%, giving a net popularity of positive 2 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 37.6 marks, approval rate 22%, disapproval rate 48%, thus a net popularity of negative 26 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 31.3 marks, approval rate 13%, disapproval rate 51%. Her net popularity has rebounded significantly by 11 percentage points to negative 38 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating and net approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 8 among 13 Directors have gone up, 4 have gone down while 1 remained unchanged. Among them, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong register significant changes in their net approval rates. The approval rates of the first four have increased by 14, 14, 9 and 7 percentage points respectively, while those of the latter two decreased by 13 and 21 percentage points respectively and are at their record lows since they took office. Among all the Directors, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan register negative popularities, at negative 1, negative 7, negative 9 and negative 14 percentage points respectively. Sophia Chan continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 31 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Edward Yau, Carrie Lam, Law Chi-kwong, Matthew Cheung, Kevin Yeung, Lau Kong-wah, Frank Chan and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Wong Kam-sing, John Lee, Joshua Law, Nicholas Yang, James Lau, Michael Wong and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Teresa Cheng falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]

“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]

“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]

Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (43%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (39%); CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (35%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (27%); CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (27%); Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (24%); Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (24%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (22%); FS Paul Chan Mo-po (22%)

“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates [11]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (33%, 50%); Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (32%, 49%); Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (31%, 46%); Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (22%, 45%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (21%, 31%); Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (20%, 35%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (20%, 37%)

“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11]

SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (51%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11]

[11] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.


Future Release (Tentative)

  • February 19, 2019 (Tuesday) 12pm to 2pm: People’s most familiar political figures