HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the Government and ratings of the best retail corporationsBack

 

Press Release on March 26, 2019

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) |

| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government) |

| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with Current Political, Economic and livelihood conditions) |

| Detailed Findings (The Best Retail Corporations) |

Contact Information

Date of survey

:

28/2-5/3/2019 (Naming of retail corporations)
14-19/3/2019 (Other items)

Survey method

:

Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers

Target population

:

Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above

Sample size[1]

:

1,024 (Naming of retail corporations; including 686 landline and 338 mobile samples)
1,024 (Other items; including 684 landline and 340 mobile samples)

Effective response rate[2]

:

72.2% (Naming of retail corporations)
73.1% (Other items)

Sampling error[3]

:

Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level

Weighting method[4]

:

Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1] Starting from April 2018, POP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.

[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.


Popularity of CE and the Government

Latest Figures

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong today released via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data and related respondents’ demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

7-11/1/19

21-24/1/19

29/1-8/2/19

18-21/2/19

28/2-5/3/19

14-19/3/19

Latest change

Sample size

1,007

1,000

1,000

1,001

1,024

1,024

--

Response rate

55.6%

59.0%

63.0%

72.1%

72.2%

73.1%

--

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

--

Rating of CE Carrie Lam

50.9[5]

45.5[5]

47.4

50.0[5]

50.9

52.6+/-1.7

+1.7

Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam

37%[5]

32%[5]

35%

38%

35%

39+/-3%

+4%

Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam

48%[5]

52%

49%

45%

51%[5]

45+/-3%

-6%[5]

Net approval rate

-11%[5]

-20%[5]

-14%

-7%

-16%[5]

-7+/-6%

+9%[5]

[5] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 52.6 marks, and 39% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is negative 7 percentage points.

Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government as well as people’s appraisal of society's conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

22-24/10/18

15-19/11/18

17-20/12/18

21-24/1/19

18-21/2/19

14-19/3/19

Latest change

Sample size[6]

1,006

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,001

1,024

--

Response rate

63.4%

67.9%

60.6%

59.0%

72.1%

73.1%

--

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

--

Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[7]

37%

35%

42%[8]

27%[8]

29%

31+/-4%

+1%

Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[7]

42%

46%

36%[8]

49%[8]

46%

49+/-4%

+3%

Net satisfaction rate

-4%

-11%

5%[8]

-23%[8]

-17%

-18+/-7%

-2%

Mean value[7]

2.8

2.7

3.0[8]

2.5[8]

2.6

2.6+/-0.1

--

Current economic condition:
Satisfaction rate[7]

33%[8]

37%[8]

40%

31%[8]

36%[8]

35+/-3%

-1%

Current economic condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[7]

42%[8]

39%

32%[8]

41%[8]

37%

42+/-3%

+4%[8]

Net satisfaction rate

-9%[8]

-2%

8%[8]

-10%[8]

-1%[8]

-7+/-5%

-6%

Mean value[7]

2.8[8]

2.9

3.0[8]

2.8[8]

2.9[8]

2.8+/-0.1

-0.1

Current livelihood condition:
Satisfaction rate[7]

27%

25%

30%[8]

21%[8]

24%

27+/-3%

+3%

Current livelihood condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[7]

52%

53%

46%[8]

56%[8]

55%

54+/-3%

--

Net satisfaction rate

-25%

-28%

-16%[8]

-34%[8]

-31%

-27+/-5%

+4%

Mean value[7]

2.6

2.5

2.7[8]

2.4[8]

2.4

2.5+/-0.1

+0.1

Current political condition:
Satisfaction rate[7]

18%

19%

20%

18%

17%

17+/-2%

--

Current political condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[7]

59%

58%

56%

62%[8]

61%

62+/-3%

+1%

Net satisfaction rate

-41%

-39%

-36%

-43%[8]

-44%

-45+/-5%

-1%

Mean value[7]

2.2

2.2

2.4

2.2[8]

2.2

2.2+/-0.1

--

[6] The question on the satisfaction of SARG performance only uses sub-samples of the surveys concerned. The sub-sample size for this survey is 604.

[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit the POP Site for details.

[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 31% were satisfied, whereas 49% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 18 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, which is between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general. As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates were 35%, 27% and 17% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were negative 7, negative 27 and negative 45 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic, livelihood and political conditions were 2.8, 2.5 and 2.2, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rating and support rate of Carrie Lam as Chief Executive by respondents’ age and education attainment, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

Date of survey: 14-19/3/2019

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall sample

Rating of CE Carrie Lam[9]

41.5+/-4.0
(171)

50.3+/-2.9
(340)

58.2+/-2.3
(488)

52.6+/-1.7
(998)

Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[9]

Support

16+/-6%
(28)

35+/-5%
(118)

50+/-5%
(247)

39+/-3%
(393)

Oppose

71+/-7%
(123)

50+/-5%
(171)

33+/-4%
(163)

45+/-3%
(457)

Don’t know / Hard to say

13+/-5%
(23)

16+/-4%
(54)

17+/-3%
(81)

16+/-2%
(157)

Total

100%
(173)

100%
(343)

100%
(491)

100%
(1,007)

[9] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.


Date of survey: 14-19/3/2019

Primary or below

Secondary

Tertiary or above

Overall sample

Rating of CE Carrie Lam[10]

59.7+/-3.6
(189)

55.8+/-2.4
(480)

43.6+/-2.9
(336)

52.5+/-1.7
(1,004)

Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[10]

Support

56+/-7%
(108)

42+/-4%
(203)

24+/-5%
(82)

39+/-3%
(392)

Oppose

27+/-6%
(52)

41+/-4%
(195)

63+/-5%
(211)

45+/-3%
(459)

Don’t know / Hard to say

17+/-5%
(32)

17+/-3%
(84)

13+/-4%
(45)

16+/-2%
(161)

Total

100%
(192)

100%
(482)

100%
(338)

100%
(1,012)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.


Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 18 to 21 February, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 14 to 19 March, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

19/3/19

Lantau Tomorrow Vision plan is estimated to cost HK$624 billion.

18/3/19

Two MTR trains collide during the testing of a new signalling system on the Tsuen Wan Line.

14/3/19

The Securities and Futures Commission fines four investment banks $786 million for failing in their duties as IPO sponsors.

12/3/19

The Hong Kong Housing Authority will offer 4,871 flats under the Home Ownership Scheme in May.

11/3/19

The government proposes to cap the maximum usage of Elderly Health Care Vouchers on optometry services at $2,000 for every two years.

1/3/19

The central government introduces eight policy measures for Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.

27/2/19

Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget.

26/2/19

The central government sends a letter to the Chief Executive on the SAR government’s ban on the Hong Kong National Party.

20/2/19

The government fully endorses the land supply options proposed by the Task Force on Land Supply.

18/2/19

The outline development plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is announced by the central government.


Ratings of the Best Retail Corporations

Background

In 2008, POP initiated a tracking survey series on Corporate Social Responsibility, aiming to gauge the public image of different commercial organizations in order to encourage them to become ethical companies and select the best corporations. There are a total of six modules under this survey series, namely, 1) Public Transportation, 2) Telecommunication, 3) Banks and Financial Services, 4) Real Estate and Property Development, 5) Retail, and 6) Fast Food Restaurant. At the beginning, these surveys were conducted once every three months, with two different modules each time. From July 2017, the frequency was changed to once every six months, with one module only for each survey. From July 2018, the frequency was further changed to once every year, with one module only for each survey.

The surveys were conducted in two stages. In the first stage naming survey, respondents were requested to nominate, unprompted, at most five relevant corporations that they were most familiar with. The three most frequently cited names would enter the next stage. During the second stage rating survey, respondents would be asked to rate the CSR performance for each of the shortlisted corporations using a 0-100 scale, in which 0 indicates extremely poor performance, 100 indicates extremely good performance, and 50 means half-half.

Latest Figures

In the naming survey, the retail corporations mentioned most frequently were ParknShop, Wellcome and 7-Eleven. The latest ratings of these corporations are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

21-22/3/17

7-8/6/17

8-9/11/17

8-9/5/18 [12]

14-19/3/19

Latest change

Sample size[11]

512

505

504

511

565

--

Response rate

72.6%

68.7%

56.1%

60.7%

73.1%

--

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

Recognition rate

--

7-Eleven

56.3

54.4[13]

57.0[13]

57.7

55.9+/-1.8

92%

-1.8

Wellcome

58.0[13]

53.1[13]

56.0[13]

57.0

55.7+/-1.6

95%

-1.2

ParknShop

56.8[13]

51.8[13]

55.1[13]

55.8

53.8+/-1.6

95%

-2.1

[11] These questions may only use sub-samples of the surveys concerned. Such sub-sample sizes have been reflected in the table.

[12] The original figures were mistaken, they are hereby corrected.

[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Our latest survey showed that 7-Eleven was considered as having the best CSR reputation among local retail corporations, scored 55.9 marks, while Wellcome and ParknShop scored 55.7 and 53.8 marks respectively.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 52.6 marks. Her approval rate is 39%, disapproval rate 45%, giving a net popularity of negative 7 percentage points, registering a significant increase of 9 percentage points compared to around two weeks ago. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating.

As for the SAR Government, its satisfaction rate now stands at 31%, dissatisfaction rate 49%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 18 percentage points. These figures have not changed much as compared to one month ago. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are negative 7, negative 27 and negative 45 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.

As for the best retail corporations, our latest survey shows that the most well-known corporation was ParknShop. Results of rating survey, however, show that 7-Eleven has the best CSR reputation in the sector, scoring 55.9 marks, followed by Wellcome and ParknShop, with 55.7 and 53.8 marks respectively.

Future Release (Tentative)

  • April 2, 2019 (Tuesday) 12pm to 2pm: Budget second follow-up survey, Public Sentiment Index