HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

 

Press Release on April 30, 2019

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) |

| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government) |

| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with Current Political, Economic and livelihood conditions) |

Special Announcements

1. The Public Opinion Programme of The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP) is transforming into an independent organization called the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) which is expected to operate officially on May 4, 2019. HKPORI will carry on the spirit of May Fourth Movement and the mission of HKUPOP, it will continue to serve the society with integrity and quality as its motto, and become a civil society conscientious enterprise.

2. Under HKPORI will be a research programme called Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) which will continue to conduct public opinion surveys, but will require public funding before releasing them. This means that self-funding tracking surveys so far conducted and released by HKUPOP, covering about 25 broad topics and almost 250 opinion questions, like those on the popularity of the Chief Executive, the government, the principal officials, the best commercial organizations, people’s views on June Fourth, ethnic identity, and so on may not be seen again after July this year. For public releases on the establishment of HKPOP, please refer to our website: https://www.hkupop.hku.hk/english/release/release1583_pr.html。

3. The success of HKPOP requires public support. We now sincerely solicit public donations to be made to the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) account number 640-116976-838 managed by the Public Policy Research Platform Ltd for HKPORI before we set up our own bank account. Donors should send a notification message to our email account at [email protected], through which we will issue an official receipt after confirmation of the deposit. Please follow us through the following social media accounts for our latest update:

Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/HKPublicOpinionProgram
Twitter – https://www.twitter.com/hkporihkpop (HKPOP)
Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/h.k.p.o.p

Abstract

HKUPOP successfully interviewed 1,031 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late April. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 49.0 marks. Her approval rate is 36%, disapproval rate 49%, giving a net popularity of negative 13 percentage points. All changes registered are within sampling errors. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating. As for the SAR Government, its satisfaction rate now stands at 30%, dissatisfaction rate 48%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 19 percentage points. These figures have remained basically the same as compared to one month ago. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are negative 7, negative 37 and negative 48 percentage points. The effective response rate of the survey is 66.1%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey

:

23-25/4/2019

Survey method

:

Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers

Target population

:

Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above

Sample size[1]

:

1,031 (including 684 landline and 347 mobile samples)

Effective response rate[2]

:

66.1%

Sampling error[3]

:

Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level

Weighting method[4]

:

Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1] Starting from April 2018, HKUPOP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by HKUPOP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.

[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, HKUPOP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, HKUPOP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.


Latest Figures

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, HKUPOP today released via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data and related respondents’ demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

29/1-8/2/19

18-21/2/19

28/2-5/3/19

14-19/3/19

8-11/4/19

23-25/4/19

Latest change

Sample size

1,000

1,001

1,024

1,024

1,012

1,031

--

Response rate

63.0%

72.1%

72.2%

73.1%

63.9%

66.1%

--

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

--

Rating of CE Carrie Lam

47.4

50.0[5]

50.9

52.6

48.5[5]

49.0+/-1.8

+0.5

Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam

35%

38%

35%

39%

34%[5]

36+/-3%

+3%

Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam

49%

45%

51%[5]

45%[5]

51%[5]

49+/-3%

-2%

Net approval rate

-14%

-7%

-16%[5]

-7%[5]

-17%[5]

-13+/-6%

+4%

[5] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 49.0 marks, and 36% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is negative 13 percentage points.

Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government as well as people’s appraisal of society's conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

15-19/11/18

17-20/12/18

21-24/1/19

18-21/2/19

14-19/3/19

23-25/4/19

Latest change

Sample size[6]

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,001

1,024

1,031

--

Response rate

67.9%

60.6%

59.0%

72.1%

73.1%

66.1%

--

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

--

Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[7]

35%

42%[8]

27%[8]

29%

31%

30+/-4%

-1%

Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[7]

46%

36%[8]

49%[8]

46%

49%

48+/-4%

-1%

Net satisfaction rate

-11%

5%[8]

-23%[8]

-17%

-18%

-19+/-7%

--

Mean value[7]

2.7

3.0[8]

2.5[8]

2.6

2.6

2.6+/-0.1

--

Current economic condition:
Satisfaction rate[7]

37%[8]

40%

31%[8]

36%[8]

35%

33+/-3%

-1%

Current economic condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[7]

39%

32%[8]

41%[8]

37%

42%[8]

40+/-3%

-2%

Net satisfaction rate

-2%

8%[8]

-10%[8]

-1%[8]

-7%

-7+/-5%

--

Mean value[7]

2.9

3.0[8]

2.8[8]

2.9[8]

2.8

2.8+/-0.1

--

Current livelihood condition:
Satisfaction rate[7]

25%

30%[8]

21%[8]

24%

27%

22+/-3%

-5%[8]

Current livelihood condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[7]

53%

46%[8]

56%[8]

55%

54%

59+/-3%

+5%[8]

Net satisfaction rate

-28%

-16%[8]

-34%[8]

-31%

-27%

-37+/-5%

-10%[8]

Mean value[7]

2.5

2.7[8]

2.4[8]

2.4

2.5

2.4+/-0.1

-0.2[8]

Current political condition:
Satisfaction rate[7]

19%

20%

18%

17%

17%

17+/-2%

--

Current political condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[7]

58%

56%

62%[8]

61%

62%

64+/-3%

+2%

Net satisfaction rate

-39%

-36%

-43%[8]

-44%

-45%

-48+/-5%

-3%

Mean value[7]

2.2

2.4

2.2[8]

2.2

2.2

2.1+/-0.1

-0.1[8]

[6] The question on the satisfaction of SARG performance only uses sub-samples of the surveys concerned. The sub-sample size for this survey is 642.

[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. From October to December 2018, HKUPOP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit the HKU POP Site for details.

[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 30% were satisfied, whereas 48% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 19 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, which is between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general. As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates were 33%, 22% and 17% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were negative 7, negative 37 and negative 48 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic, livelihood and political conditions were 2.8, 2.4 and 2.1, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rating and support rate of Carrie Lam as Chief Executive by respondents’ age and education attainment, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

Date of survey: 23-25/4/2019

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall sample

Rating of CE Carrie Lam[9]

37.0+/-3.5
(174)

47.5+/-2.9
(343)

53.9+/-2.6
(490)

48.8+/-1.8
(1,007)

Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[9]

Support

14+/-5%
(25)

34+/-5%
(118)

45+/-4%
(223)

36+/-3%
(367)

Oppose

77+/-6%
(134)

51+/-5%
(175)

38+/-4%
(190)

49+/-3%
(499)

Don’t know / Hard to say

9+/-4%
(16)

15+/-4%
(51)

17+/-3%
(87)

15+/-2%
(153)

Total

100%
(175)

100%
(344)

100%
(499)

100%
(1,019)

[9] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.


Date of survey: 23-25/4/2019

Primary or below

Secondary

Tertiary or above

Overall sample

Rating of CE Carrie Lam[10]

57.8+/-4.1
(188)

50.6+/-2.5
(480)

41.9+/-2.9
(341)

49.0+/-1.8
(1,009)

Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[10]

Support

47+/-7%
(93)

42+/-4%
(201)

22+/-4%
(74)

36+/-3%
(368)

Oppose

31+/-7%
(62)

46+/-5%
(221)

63+/-5%
(215)

49+/-3%
(498)

Don’t know / Hard to say

21+/-6%
(42)

13+/-3%
(62)

15+/-4%
(51)

15+/-2%
(155)

Total

100%
(197)

100%
(484)

100%
(340)

100%
(1,021)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.


Opinion Daily

In 2007, HKUPOP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to HKUPOP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by HKUPOP. These daily entries would then be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by HKUPOP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 14 to 19 March, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 23 to 25 April, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

24/4/19

Four are jailed as the court hands down sentences to the nine Occupy Movement leaders.

15/4/19

Consumer Council finds excessive mercury levels in over half of tuna samples.

9/4/19

The District Court convicts the nine Occupy Movement leaders and rules that civil disobedience is not a defense.

8/4/19

The Court of First Instance rules that building small houses through private treaty grants or land exchanges is not lawful traditional rights.

6/4/19

The Registration and Electoral Office did not report the loss of a voter register for over two years.

4/4/19

Members of the Real Estate Developers Association will sell 20 percent of flats in new non-luxury projects on the open market.

4/4/19

The Court of Final Appeal rules that using one’s own computer is not “obtaining access to a computer”.

3/4/19

Carrie Lam says the proposed changes to the extradition bill aims to plug a legal loophole.

31/3/19

People protest against the proposed changes to the extradition bill.

30/3/19

The number of measles cases this year increases to 33.

19/3/19

Lantau Tomorrow Vision plan is estimated to cost HK$624 billion.

18/3/19

Two MTR trains collide during the testing of a new signalling system on the Tsuen Wan Line.


Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Tai.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 49.0 marks. Her approval rate is 36%, disapproval rate 49%, giving a net popularity of negative 13 percentage points. All changes registered are within sampling errors. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating.

As for the SAR Government, its satisfaction rate now stands at 30%, dissatisfaction rate 48%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 19 percentage points. These figures have remained basically the same as compared to one month ago. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are negative 7, negative 37 and negative 48 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.

Future Release (Tentative)

  • May 7, 2019 (Tuesday) 12pm to 2pm: Ratings of Top 10 Political Groups