HKU POP final release: No secretary or director is graded “ideal” or “successful” before June 9 protestBack

 

Press Release on June 11, 2019

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) | Detailed Findings (Popularity of Principal Officials) |

Special Announcements

1. The Director of Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP) Robert Chung was recently asked by a number of local and international media to comment on the headcount of the June 9 Rally, he therefore issues a short statement here: “HKUPOP did not conduct any headcount on June 9, and it is uncertain whether the Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) under the newly established Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) would conduct headcounts in future. Since July 1 of 2003, HKUPOP has already explained in detail how to conduct scientific headcounts, the civic society itself including its independent news media can always form teams to conduct their own headcounts. HKUPOP and HKPOP in future are always willing to help.” Chung’s feelings over the June 9 Rally can be found in the following posts…

“69 plus 2 equals 71”

These days, many friends ask me, “How would you compare June 9 of 2019 with July 1 of 2003?” They seem to be guessing at the number of demonstrators.

I said to myself, headcount calling has become less and less scientific. One side bluffs more and more, the other side compresses harder and harder, both have gone beyond reality. Since 2003, we fight for science. At the end, we are still caught between the unnecessary tension between science and democracy.

Rather than using unreliable figures, let me just say that in terms of sentiment figures, there are still some differences between the June 9 to come, and July 1 of that year. On the one hand, some people are still sympathetic of the CE. On the other hand, the absolute deadline is still to come. If those insiders are still humble and rational, there may still be some hope.

From June 9 to July 1, there are still two more steps.

“69 54”

“Six times nine equals fifty-four”, even kids know.

The march of June 9 may become another challenge for the spirit of May 4.

Science should have proven, that democracy is a relatively acceptable system in the world nowadays, because the technology of war and killing is so advanced that any revolution or world war can wipe out half the world in an instant. Democracy seems to be the only system which can change the political order without resorting to absolute violence.

May the spirit of democracy, and the voice of the people, not be drowned by the controversy over demonstrator headcounts.

2. HKPORI started to operate officially on May 4, 2019 as a civil society conscientious enterprise. Its website started to operate on June 9 at https://www.pori.hk. The Institute is now recruiting advisors and volunteers. All people with passion and aspirations are welcome to join us. HKPOP under HKPORI requires public funding before releasing surveys. The popularity figures of principal officials released by HKUPOP today may well be the last one. The remaining three releases to be issued by HKUPOP are listed as follow:

Popularity of disciplinary forces: June 18, 2019 (Tuesday)
Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity, HKSAR Anniversary Survey: release date to be decided
Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government, Public Sentiment Index: release date to be decided

3. Here are HKPORI’s social media accounts, please follow:

Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/HKPublicOpinionProgram
Twitter – https://www.twitter.com/hkporihkpop (HKPOP)
Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/h.k.p.o.p

Abstract

HKUPOP successfully interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early June. Our latest survey conducted before the rally against the extradition bill shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 43.3 marks. Her approval rate is 32%, disapproval rate 57%, giving a net popularity of negative 24 percentage points. All changes registered are within sampling errors as compared to 2 weeks ago, but the popularity rating has dropped to a new record low again since she took office. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 43.2 marks, approval rate 29%, disapproval rate 32%, giving a net popularity of negative 2 percentage points. His rating has again registered a new record low since he took office. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 36.1 marks, approval rate 19%, disapproval rate 47%, thus a net popularity of negative 28 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 29.5 marks, approval rate 16%, disapproval rate 56%, giving a net popularity of negative 40 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating and net approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 9 among 13 Directors have gone up while 4 have gone down, but only those of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung and Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law have changed significantly, which increased by 11, increased by 10 and decreased by 9 percentage points respectively. The net approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip and Secretary for Security John Lee are at their record low since they took office. Among all the Directors, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Security John Lee and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah register negative popularities, at negative 1, negative 2, negative 7, negative 8, negative 13 and negative 18 percentage points respectively. Sophia Chan continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 38 percentage points. According to HKUPOP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Joshua Law, Matthew Cheung, John Lee, Frank Chan, Kevin Yeung, Lau Kong-wah and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Michael Wong, James Lau, Nicholas Yang and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Carrie Lam and Teresa Cheng fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The effective response rate of the survey is 60.4%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey

:

3-6/6/2019

Survey method

:

Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers

Target population

:

Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above

Sample size[1]

:

1,006 (including 677 landline and 329 mobile samples)

Effective response rate[2]

:

60.4%

Sampling error[3]

:

Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level

Weighting method[4]

:

Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1] Starting from April 2018, HKUPOP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by HKUPOP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.

[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, HKUPOP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, HKUPOP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.


Latest Figures

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, HKUPOP today released via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the raw data and related respondents’ demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

14-19/3/19

8-11/4/19

23-25/4/19

6-9/5/19

20-23/5/19

3-6/6/19

Latest change

Sample size

1,024

1,012

1,031

1,018

1,013

1,006

--

Response rate

73.1%

63.9%

66.1%

63.2%

61.9%

60.4%

--

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

--

Rating of CE Carrie Lam

52.6

48.5[5]

49.0

44.3[5]

44.7

43.3+/-2.0

-1.4

Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam

39%

34%[5]

36%

32%[5]

32%

32+/-3%

--

Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam

45%[5]

51%[5]

49%

56%[5]

59%

57+/-3%

-2%

Net approval rate

-7%[5]

-17%[5]

-13%

-24%[5]

-27%

-24+/-6%

+2%

[5] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey

29/1-8/2/19

27/2/19

28/2-5/3/19

8-11/4/19

6-9/5/19

3-6/6/19

Latest change

Sample size[6]

511-542

621

591-680

634-673

592-642

553-616

--

Response rate

63.0%

78.2%

72.2%

63.9%

63.2%

60.4%

--

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

--

Rating of CS Matthew Cheung

46.4

--

47.7

45.9

43.5

43.2+/-2.5

-0.3

Vote of confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung

27%

--

26%

25%

23%

29+/-4%

+6%[7]

Vote of no confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung

24%

--

28%

27%

29%

32+/-4%

+2%

Net approval rate

2%

--

-1%

-2%

-6%

-2+/-6%

+3%

Rating of FS Paul Chan

37.6

40.5

39.7

38.2

34.2[7]

36.1+/-2.4

+1.9

Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan

22%

19%

21%

18%

16%

19+/-3%

+3%

Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan

48%

49%

52%

53%

51%

47+/-4%

-4%

Net approval rate

-26%

-31%

-30%

-35%

-35%

-28+/-7%

+7%

Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng

31.3

--

34.4

34.2

29.5[7]

29.5+/-2.3

--

Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng

13%

--

14%

17%

11%[7]

16+/-3%

+5%[7]

Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng

51%[7]

--

53%

46%[7]

52%[7]

56+/-4%

+4%

Net approval rate

-38%[7]

--

-40%

-30%[7]

-41%[7]

-40+/-6%

+1%

[6] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. These questions only use sub-samples of the surveys concerned; the sample size for each question also varies. The survey conducted on 27/2/2019 was the Budget instant survey and only asked rating of FS as well as his vote of confidence.

[7] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates [8]:

Date of survey

28/2-5/3/19

8-11/4/19

6-9/5/19

3-6/6/19

Latest change

Sample size[9]

582-640

558-619

581-635

565-638

--

Response rate

72.2%

63.9%

63.2%

60.4%

--

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan

48%

48%

48%

50+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan

13%

13%

13%

12+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

35%

36%

35%

38+/-6%

+3%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau

43%

44%

42%

39+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau

10%

11%

15%

13+/-3%

-2%

Net approval rate

33%

32%

27%

26+/-6%

-1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

37%

38%

33%[10]

38+/-4%

+6%[10]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

21%

21%

22%

20+/-3%

-2%

Net approval rate

17%

17%

10%

18+/-6%

+7%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong

37%[10]

39%

32%[10]

38+/-4%

+6%[10]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong

21%

22%

28%[10]

23+/-3%

-5%[10]

Net approval rate

15%[10]

17%

4%[10]

15+/-6%

+11%[10]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau

24%

25%

23%

24+/-4%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau

8%

8%

9%

10+/-2%

--

Net approval rate

16%

17%

14%

15+/-5%

+1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong

25%

25%

23%

26+/-4%

+3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong

14%

15%

15%

14+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

10%

9%

9%

13+/-5%

+4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law

37%[10]

34%

34%

31+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law

14%

11%

13%

19+/-3%

+6%[10]

Net approval rate

23%

23%

20%

12+/-6%

-9%[10]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang

24%

24%

22%

23+/-3%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang

29%[10]

24%

29%[10]

24+/-4%

-5%[10]

Net approval rate

-5%

0%

-7%

-1+/-6%

+6%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip

21%

21%

21%

20+/-3%

-1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip

18%

17%

21%

22+/-3%

+1%

Net approval rate

3%

4%

0%

-2+/-5%

-2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung

25%

25%

21%

24+/-3%

+3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung

32%

36%

38%

32+/-4%

-7%[10]

Net approval rate

-6%

-11%

-18%

-7+/-6%

+10%[10]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan

27%[10]

24%

24%

26+/-3%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan

38%

36%

40%

34+/-4%

-6%[10]

Net approval rate

-10%

-12%

-16%

-8+/-6%

+8%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee

36%

31%

29%

27+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee

21%

30%[10]

34%

40+/-4%

+6%[10]

Net approval rate

16%

2%[10]

-5%

-13+/-6%

-8%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah

26%

24%

22%

22+/-3%

-1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah

40%[10]

35%

42%[10]

40+/-4%

-2%

Net approval rate

-14%

-11%

-20%

-18+/-6%

+1%

[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[9] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. These questions only use sub-samples of the surveys concerned; the sample size for each question also varies.

[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.


The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 43.3 marks, and 32% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is negative 24 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Matthew Cheung, FS Paul Chan and SJ Teresa Cheng were 43.2, 36.1 and 29.5 marks, while 29%, 19% and 16% would vote for their reappointments correspondingly. Their net approval rates are negative 2, negative 28 and negative 40 percentage points respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, attaining positive 38 percentage points. The 2nd place belongs to Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau with a net approval rate of positive 26 percentage points. Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Security John Lee and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah ranked 3rd to 13th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 18, positive 15, positive 15, positive 13, positive 12, negative 1, negative 2, negative 7, negative 8, negative 13 and negative 18 percentage points. In other words, no Director scored a net approval rate of over 50%.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, HKUPOP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to HKUPOP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by HKUPOP. These daily entries would then be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by HKUPOP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 6 to 9 May, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 6 June, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

6/6/19

Media continues to report on the controversies concerning the extradition bill.

4/6/19

The Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China organizes a candlelight vigil for the 30th anniversary of June 4.

30/5/19

Government proposes six additional measures to the proposed changes to the extradition bill.

29/5/19

Joseph Lau Luen Hung withdraws the application for judicial review on the proposed changes to the extradition bill.

25/5/19

A bipartisan group of eight US congressmen urges Hong Kong Government to withdrawn the proposed changes to the extradition bill.

22/5/19

Members of Hong Kong Indigenous Ray Wong and Alan Li were granted refugee status in Germany last year.

21/5/19

Vice Premier of the State Council Han Zheng says the central government supports the proposed changes to the extradition bill.

20/5/19

The government proposes to resume the second reading of the extradition bill in a full Legislative Council meeting directly.

17/5/19

Director of the Liaison Office Wang Zhimin says the central government supports the proposed changes to the extradition bill.

14/5/19

Government refuses to hold a tripartite meeting with pro-establishment and pan-democrat camps over the proposed changes to the extradition bill.

11/5/19

Pro-establishment and pan-democrats Legislative councilors clash during a meeting on the proposed changes to the extradition bill.


Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of HKUPOP, Edward Tai.

Our latest survey conducted before the rally against the extradition bill shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 43.3 marks. Her approval rate is 32%, disapproval rate 57%, giving a net popularity of negative 24 percentage points. All changes registered are within sampling errors as compared to 2 weeks ago, but the popularity rating has dropped to a new record low again since she took office.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 43.2 marks, approval rate 29%, disapproval rate 32%, giving a net popularity of negative 2 percentage points. His rating has again registered a new record low since he took office. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 36.1 marks, approval rate 19%, disapproval rate 47%, thus a net popularity of negative 28 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 29.5 marks, approval rate 16%, disapproval rate 56%, giving a net popularity of negative 40 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating and net approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 9 among 13 Directors have gone up while 4 have gone down, but only those of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung and Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law have changed significantly, which increased by 11, increased by 10 and decreased by 9 percentage points respectively. The net approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip and Secretary for Security John Lee are at their record low since they took office. Among all the Directors, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Security John Lee and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah register negative popularities, at negative 1, negative 2, negative 7, negative 8, negative 13 and negative 18 percentage points respectively. Sophia Chan continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 38 percentage points.

According to HKUPOP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Joshua Law, Matthew Cheung, John Lee, Frank Chan, Kevin Yeung, Lau Kong-wah and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Michael Wong, James Lau, Nicholas Yang and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Carrie Lam and Teresa Cheng fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]

“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]

“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]

Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (50%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (39%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (38%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (38%); Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (31%); CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (29%); Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (27%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (26%); Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (24%); Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (22%); FS Paul Chan Mo-po (19%)

“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates [11]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (26%, 40%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (24%, 34%); Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (23%, 47%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (20%, 42%)

“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11]

CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (57%); SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (56%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11]

[11] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.


Future Release (Tentative)

  • June 18, 2019 (Tuesday) 12pm to 2pm: Popularity of disciplinary forces