HKU POP SITE releases survey findings on constitutional reformsBack


Press Release on March 23, 2004
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) for the first time a complete set of findings on people's opinions towards constitutional reforms. This series of polls has been conducted regularly and frequently by the POP Team since last July. Detailed figures are now available on-line, the latest figures together with those obtained in the second half of 2003, are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 2nd half of 2003 9-12/1/04 6-9/3/04 Latest change
 Sample base 6,172 1.026 1,030 --
 Overall response rate 66.0%^ 64.6% 65.0% --
 Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 3%^^ +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 Support rate of a general election of the CE in 2007** 74% 69% 62% -7%
 Opposition rate of a general election of the CE in 2007** 9% 12% 19% +7%
 Proportion of respondents not expecting a general election of the Chief Executive in 2007 to materialize 48% 51% 61% +10%
 Proportion of respondents expecting a general election of the Chief Executive in 2007 to materialize 28% 25% 19% -6%
 Support rate of a general election of all Legislative Councillors in 2008** 76% 74% 61%# -13%
 Opposition rate of a general election of all Legislative Councillors in 2008** 7% 9% 14%# +5%
 Proportion of respondents not expecting a general election of all Legislative Councillors in 2008 to materialize 33% 38% 54% +16%
 Proportion of respondents expecting a general election of all Legislative Councillors in 2008 to materialize 39% 35% 19% -16%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ Average overall response rate.
^^ Average sampling error of percentages.
# Because the questionnaire used in early March contained questions on functional constituencies, the figures reported here may have been slightly affected.

 

Results obtained in early March revealed that 62% agreed to having a general election of the Chief Executive in 2007, but only 19% believed that this demand would materialize. On the other hand, 61% agreed to having a general election of all Legislative Councillors in 2008, again only 19% thought this demand would materialize.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, commented on this series of findings: "Since July 1 last year, people's support for universal suffrage of the Chief Executive in 2007 and all LegCo seats in 2008 have remained at about 60% to 80%. These figures have recently dropped, but they still represent majority opinion. However, in spite of such strong support, very few people actually expected such demands to materialize, especially in our last survey. In other words, as far as public opinion and discussion are concerned, there is ample space for rational talks and maneuvers. Local opinion leaders and the central government should better make use of this opportunity to promote sensible and rational discussions."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to our schedule, the date and time of our next release will be March 30, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest popularity figures of CE Tung Chee-Hwa, CS Donald Tsang, FS Henry Tang and HKSARG will be released. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.