HKU POP SITE releases (1) survey findings on constitutional reforms and (2) figures of the second multi-party opinion survey on political development Back


Press Release on May 20, 2004
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the findings of a regular survey on people's opinions towards constitutional reforms. However, since NPC has already vetoed universal suffrage in 2007/08, the questions of the survey may have to be revised, or suspended. Recent figures on people's opinions on constitutional reforms are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 9-12/1 6-9/3 10-13/5 Latest change
 Sample base 1,026 1,030 1,021 --
 Overall response rate 64.6% 65.0% 61.9% --
 Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 Support rate of a general election of the CE in 2007** 69% 62% 55% -7%
 Opposition rate of a general election of the CE in 2007** 12% 19% 28% +9%
 Proportion of respondents not expecting a general election of the Chief Executive in 2007 to materialize 51% 61% 73% +12%
 Proportion of respondents expecting a general election of the Chief Executive in 2007 to materialize 25% 19% 13% -6%
 Support rate of a general election of all Legislative Councillors in 2008** 74% 61%# 66% +5%
 Opposition rate of a general election of all Legislative Councillors in 2008** 9% 14%# 19% +5%
 Proportion of respondents not expecting a general election of all Legislative Councillors in 2008 to materialize 38% 54% 62% +8%
 Proportion of respondents expecting a general election of all Legislative Councillors in 2008 to materialize 35% 19% 20% +1%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Because the questionnaire used in early March contained questions on functional constituencies, the figures reported here may have been slightly affected.

 

Results obtained in mid-May revealed that 55% agreed to having a general election of the Chief Executive in 2007, but only 13% believed that this demand would materialize. On the other hand, 66% agreed to having a general election of all Legislative Councillors in 2008, again only 20% thought this demand would materialize.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, analyzed the findings: "After NPC interpreted the Basic Law and vetoed universal suffrage in 2007/08, about 10% to 20% of Hong Kong people still believed their demands could be materialized. The support of universal suffrage in 2007/08 now lingers around 55% to 65%. Compared to the beginning of this year, both sets of figures have dropped about 10 to 15 percentage points. Exactly how the Central and SAR Governments could answer or channel people's demands in this aspect is likely to be a very difficult task for both governments."

 

The Public Opinion Programme today also releases via the "POP SITE" detailed figures of the "Second multi-party opinion survey on political development". The purpose of the survey is to provide local political parties with data on public opinion on various political issues, and to encourage constructive exchange between them. The survey is a joint effort between POP and the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI). Two surveys have been conducted so far. The first one was conducted in January, and three political parties participated, namely, the Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong, the Democratic Party, and the Frontier. In the second survey conducted in April, the Democratic Party, the Frontier, and the Liberal Party participated. In both cases, each participating group could nominate up to 5 questions for inclusion in the survey, on the understanding that the all parties would be given access to all data collected, and that the findings would be made available for public consumption. POP is responsible for piecing the questions together, and to design questions for a feature topic.

 

Detailed results of the surveys are now available in the "POP SITE", under "Research Reports", they should be fairly useful to the future development of party politics in Hong Kong. We welcome people to download our findings, but we will not comment on them.

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be May 25, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and HKSAR Government will be released.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.