HKU POP SITE releases (1) the latest popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and HKSAR Government, and (2) results of the Handover Anniversary surveyBack


Press Release on June 29, 2004
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the latest popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and the HKSAR Government. Survey results related to the Handover Anniversary are also released. Recent changes in the popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 19-22/4 3-7/5 18-20/5 1-3/6/04 21-24/6 Latest change
 Sample base 1,029 1,013 1,039 1,025 1,023 --
 Overall response rate 61.1% 61.5% 62.3% 62.1% 63.9% --
 Sampling error of ratings (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 1.4 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.4 --
 Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 Support rating of CH Tung 44.2 42.7 42.0 43.9 45.7 +1.8
 Vote of no confidence in CH Tung 66% 64% 65% 64% 59% -5%
 Vote of confidence in CH Tung 16% 18% 16% 19% 17% -2%
 Dissatisfaction rate of Tung's policy direction** 47% -- -- -- 43% -4%
 Satisfaction rate of Tung's policy direction** 14% -- -- -- 14% --
 Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance** 49% -- 58% -- 49% -9%
 Satisfaction rate of SARG performance** 16% -- 13% -- 17% +4%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

 

Results obtained in late June showed that, the rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa was 45.7 marks. Meanwhile, 59% of the respondents did not support Tung as the Chief Executive, whereas 17% did. Besides, 43% were dissatisfied with Tung's policy direction, while 14% were satisfied. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 49% were dissatisfied, whereas 17% were satisfied.

 

On the other hand, survey results related to the Handover Anniversary are summarized in the following table:

 
 Date of survey 21/6/99 9-12/6/00 8-13/6/01 4-5/6/02 13-18/6/03 7-11/6/04 Latest change
 Sample base 526 1,103 1,074 1,010 1,043 1,027 --
 Overall response rate 51.9% 54.6% 72.5% 65.4% 68.0% 66.9% --
 Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 4% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 Being proud of becoming a national citizen of China 37% 35% 35% 40% 38% 39% +1%
 Not being proud of becoming a national citizen of China 61% 62% 60% 54% 53% 53% --
 Central Government's policy on HK: positive evaluations ** 25% 22% 28% 30% 36% 25% -11%
 Central Government's policy on HK: negative evaluations ** 25% 26% 19% 21% 24% 29% +5%
 Had positive feelings about the Central Government** 28% 25% 27% 38% 40% 30% -10%
 Had negative feelings about the Central Government** 21% 21% 19% 14% 12% 18% +6%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

 

Results of the latest Anniversary survey revealed that, 39% of the respondents were proud of becoming a national citizen of China after the handover, while 53% said they did not have any special feeling. As for the policy of the Central Government on Hong Kong after the handover, 25% of the respondents evaluated it positively, whereas 29% gave negative evaluations. Besides, 30% felt positively about the Central Government, compared with 18% who had negative feelings.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, analyzed: "Our latest survey shows that the popularity of the Chief Executive has continued to recover, while people's dissatisfaction with the SAR government receded. Although Tung's popularity is still at a very low level, it has gone back to 45 marks for the first time since late March. Tung is probably riding on the warm wind which is defrosting the relationship between the democrats and the Central Government, and his recent meetings with the democrats seem to have helped. However, as the 7th anniversary of the handover is approaching, many more people are dissatisfied with the Central Government's policy on Hong Kong, when comparing the same time last year. This has reverted an upward trend which first started in 2000. There is little doubt that this was due to NPC's interpretation of the Basic Law and its veto of universal suffrage in 2007/08."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be July 6, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest results of people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems" will be released.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.