HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the Principal OfficialsBack


Press Release on September 13, 2005
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are first summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 4-6/7 25-29/7 1-4/8 22-25/8 1-7/9 Latest change
 Sample base 1,020 1,014 1,015 1,004 1,007 --
 Overall response rate 61.9% 64.0% 59.4% 63.5% 62.0% --
 Sampling error of ratings(at 95% confidence level)* +/- 1.0 +/-1.2 +/-1.2 +/-1.2 +/-1.0 --
 Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)* +/- 3% +/-3% +/-3% +/-3% +/-3% --
 Rating of CE Donald Tsang 71.4 69.0 67.4 64.8 66.7 +1.9
 Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang 77% 72% 66% 68% 75% +7%
 Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang 7% 7% 10% 12% 8% -4%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

 

The latest survey conducted in early September shows that, CE Donald Tsang scored 66.7 marks, while 75% supported him as the CE. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system are summarized below:

 
 Date of survey 3-6/5 1-3/6 4-6/7 1-4/8 1-7/9 Latest change
 Sample base 1,024 1,015 1,020 1,015 1,007 --
 Overall response rate 64.4% 65.6% 61.9% 59.4% 62.0% --
 Sampling error of ratings(at 95% confidence level)* +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.6 +/-1.4 --
 FS Henry Tang 62.1 63.01 63.7 63.3 62.5 -0.8
 CS Rafael Hui Survey not started yet 60.5 57.0 58.5 +1.5
 SJ Elsie Leung 51.4 50.2 54.3 51.8 53.1 +1.3
 Ex-CS Donald Tsang 71.22 Resigned, then became CE
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 59.5 62.8 61.0 61.7 61.9 +0.2
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 57.9 58.3 58.5 57.8 58.6 +0.8
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 57.2 60.5 59.8 59.3 58.4 -0.9
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang 54.1 55.8 55.3 54.7 54.8 +0.1
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow 57.1 60.5 57.4 52.4 52.7 +0.3
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 50.3 51.5 52.3 50.3 52.6 +2.3
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 53.2 53.7 53.8 52.9 52.0 -0.9
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 49.9 51.9 52.8 51.3 51.5 +0.2
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 48.2 49.83 51.3 50.0 51.0 +1.0
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 49.2 49.7 52.2 49.5 49.1 -0.4
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 44.4 45.1 47.5 45.3 47.1 +1.8

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
1 Henry Tang was also the Acting Chief Executive at that time.
2 Donald Tsang was also the Acting Chief Executive at that time.
3 Michael Suen was also the Acting Chief Secretary at that time.

 

Our survey conducted in early September showed that the ratings of FS Henry Tang Ying-yen, CS Rafael Hui Si-yan and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 62.5, 58.5 and 53.1 marks respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st rank fell on Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 61.9 marks. Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung and Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan ranked 2nd and 3rd, scoring 58.6 and 58.4 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah, Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang and Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung followed behind, attaining 54.8, 52.7, 52.6 and 52.0 marks respectively. Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping, Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping occupied the 8th to 10th ranks, who scored 51.5, 51.0 and 49.1 marks in corresponding order. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung occupied the 11th place with a popularity rating of 47.1 marks.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The popularity of Donald Tsang has rebounded in early September. His support rating has gone up for about 2 marks, while his support rate has increased by 7 percentage points. Tsang's reaction towards the assault case of the little boy, and his prospective visit to the Pearl River Delta with all Legco members, have probably boosted his popularity. As for the 14 principal officials, the popularity of 10 of them has increased, while that of the remaining 3 has dropped. Two officials still have below-50 scores. The overwhelming news of the opening of the Hong Kong Disneyland has somewhat diluted the effect of other news stories."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. The date and time of our next release will be September 20, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues and people's appraisal of past Chinese leaders will be released.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.