HKU POP SITE releases the latest results of the Handover Anniversary surveyBack


Press Release on June 29, 2006
 

| Latest Figures | Commentary | News about POP | Focus Analysis of POP Findings |
| Detailed Findings (HKSAR Anniversary Surveys) |

Latest Figures
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the latest survey results related to the Handover Anniversary. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population at the end of 2005. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:


 Date of survey  Overall sample size   Response rate   Sampling error of percentages* 
 19-21/6/06   1,012   58.2%   +/- 3% 
* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
 

The survey results related to the Handover Anniversary are tabulated below:

  Date of survey  4-5/6/02   13-18/6/03   7-11/6/04   20-23/6/05   19-21/6/06   Latest change 
  Sample base  1,010   1,043   1,027   1,026   1,012   -- 
  Overall response rate  65.4%   68.0%   66.9%   61.9%   58.2%   -- 
  Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*  +/- 3%   +/- 3%   +/- 3%   +/- 3%   +/- 3%   -- 
  Being proud of becoming a national citizen of China  40%   38%   39%   46%   47%   +1% 
  Not being proud of becoming a national citizen of China  54%   53%   53%   45%   51%   +6% 
  Central Government's policy on HK: positive evaluations **  30%   36%   25%   36%   56%   +20% 
  Central Government's policy on HK: negative evaluations **  21%   24%   29%   15%   10%   -5% 

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

Results of the latest Anniversary survey revealed that, 47% of the respondents were proud of becoming a national citizen of China after the handover, while 51% said they did not have any special feeling. As for the policy of the Central Government on Hong Kong after the handover, 56% of the respondents evaluated it positively, whereas 10% gave negative evaluations.


Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "As the 9th anniversary of HKSAR draws near, people are feeling much more positive about Central Government's Hong Kong policies, compared to a year ago. This year, the positive figure has shot up by 20 percentage points to reach record high since this survey item started in 1999. After Donald Tsang became the Chief Executive, most central government officials have used mild words when commenting on Hong Kong affairs. This may have contributed to Hong Kong people's positive feedback. Regarding people's feeling of becoming a Chinese national citizen, those feeling proud and those not feeling proud each comprises about half of the sample. The situation in 1997 was almost the same, but between 1998 and 2004, those not feeling proud usually out-numbered those feeling proud by about 15 to 20 percentage points. Starting last year, the situation recovered to that of half and half. The fluctuations of these figures are very likely related to the development of the public sentiment in Hong Kong, as well as China's state of development as a whole."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be July 4, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest figures of people's satisfaction with the performance of the Legislative Council members in general, the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong garrison and the Hong Kong Police Force will be released. Then on July 6, 2006, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, we will release the latest figures of people's appraisal of society's current conditions.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "Focus Analysis of POP Findings", and we will discuss the analysis of public opinion at handover anniversaries.

Focus Analysis of POP Findings

Analysis of public opinion at handover anniversaries

July 1, 1997 is an important date in Hong Kong's history. From the macroscopic perspective of opinion research, after the handover in 1997, July 1 each year has become a good time to summarize the development of public opinion. For the first five years after the handover, HKUPOP's handover anniversary surveys usually included the following research items:

  • People's feelings about the handover anniversary
  • People's ethnic identity before and after the handover 
  • Overall evaluation of Hong Kong's condition after the handover 
  • People's evaluation of changes before and after the handover 
  • People's feelings about the central government 
  • People's evaluation of the policy of the central government on Hong Kong after the handover

After 5 years, public mood has pacified, POP has therefore gradually reduced the number of survey items to two, namely, "people's ethnic identity before and after the handover" and "people's evaluation of the policy of the central government on Hong Kong after the handover". However, since the handover was exactly in the middle of the year, the public and the press can actually click on the half-yearly averages of various POP polls in the "POP SITE" to see the macro development of public sentimental. The half-yearly averages of the following topics should be highly useful:

  • Popularity of the HKSAR government
  • People's ethnic identity
  • People's trust in the HKSAR government
  • People's trust in the Beijing central government
  • People's confidence in Hong Kong's future
  • People's confidence in China's future
  • People's confidence in "one country, two systems"
  • Social indicators
  • Legal indicators
  • Freedom indicators
  • Appraisal of society's current conditions

POP will gather the half-yearly averages of the above survey topics, and upload them onto our "POP SITE" later today for public consumption.

| Latest Figures | Commentary | News about POP | Focus Analysis of POP Findings |
| Detailed Findings (HKSAR Anniversary Surveys) |