HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack


Press Release on July 3, 2007
 

| Latest Figures | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of HKSAR Government) |

Latest Figures
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population at the end of 2006. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:


 Date of survey  Overall sample size   Response rate  Sampling error of percentages* 
 15-21/6/2007   1,006   65.2%   +/- 3% 
* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
 

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows: 

 
  Date of survey  17-20/4/07   4-9/5/07   16-25/5/07   1-7/6/07   15-21/6/2007   Latest change^ 
  Sample base  1,011   1,005   1,008   1,022   1,006   -- 
  Overall response rate  62.7%   63.3%   61.1%   59.7%   65.2%   -- 
  Maximum sampling error of ratings 
(at 95 % conf. level)*
 +/-1.2   +/-1.0   +/-1.2   +/-1.0   +/-1.2   -- 
  Sampling error of percentages
 (at 95% conf. level)*
 +/-3%   +/-3%   +/-3%   +/-3%   +/-3%   -- 
  Finding for each question/Sampling error*  Finding   Finding   Finding   Finding   Finding   Sampling error    
  Rating of CE Donald Tsang  68.7   67.3   68.1   66.8   68.0   +/-1.2   +1.2 
  Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang  72%   74%   72%   72%   73%   +/-3%   +1% 
  Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang  11%   11%   14%   11%   12%   +/-2%   +1% 
  Satisfaction rate of SARG performance**  50%   --   50%   --   51%   +/-3%   +1% 
  Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**  11%   --   11%   --   11%   +/-2%   -- 
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of ratings +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized.
 

The latest survey conducted in mid-June showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 68.0 marks, and 73% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 51% were satisfied, whereas 11% were dissatisfied. Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

 
  Date of survey  19-21/6/06   14-20/9/06   18-20/12/06   19-21/3/07   15-21/6/2007   Latest change 
  Sample base  1,012   1,013   1,016   1,007   1,006   -- 
  Overall response rate  58.2%   58.4%   64.1%   63.6%   65.2%   -- 
  Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*  +/-3%   +/-3%   +/-3%   +/-3%   +/-3%   -- 
  Finding /Sampling error*  Finding   Finding   Finding   Finding   Finding   Error   -- 
  Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate**  66%   58%   58%   67%   65%   +/-3%   -2% 
  Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate**  8%   11%   12%   8%   8%   +/-2%   -- 
  Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate**  55%   46%   46%   56%   57%   +/-3%   +1% 
  Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate**  15%   17%   19%   11%   13%   +/-2%   +2% 
  Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate**  51%   49%   42%   50%   50%   +/-3%   -- 
  Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate**  17%   17%   21%   17%   19%   +/-2%   +2% 
  Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate**  38%   30%   25%   37%   36%   +/-3%   -1% 
  Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate**  26%   28%   34%   23%   26%   +/-3%   +3% 
  Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate**  35%   35%   28%   37%   34%   +/-3%   -3% 
  Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate**  29%   30%   35%   28%   32%   +/-3%   +4% 
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
 

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 65%. The government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity and protecting human rights and freedom followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 57% and 50% correspondingly. Meanwhile, a respective of 36% and 34% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in improving people's livelihood as well as developing democracy.

 


Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "This is the first press release issued by POP after the tenth anniversary of the HKSAR, but the findings reported herewith were collected in the middle and last ten days of June. Our latest figures show that all indicators, including the popularity of the CE and the government, as well as the five sub-indicators of government performance, have all fluctuated within sampling errors, except that people's dissatisfaction with the pace of democracy has increased. This shows that public opinion has been very stable. On the other hand, although people's satisfaction with the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity has gone up only 1 percentage point, it is again record high since September 1997. From a wide perspective, of the 5 specific policy areas, people are consistently most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, followed by its performance in maintaining economic prosperity and protecting human rights and freedom. Its performance in improving people's livelihood and developing democracy has remained low. Whether and how the new cabinet would bring about changes is something yet to be seen."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be July 5, 2007, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, POP will release the survey results of the suitability of designate Principal Officials. Then on July 10, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, we will release the latest popularity figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the PLA Hong Kong garrison and the Hong Kong Police Force.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Again on mapping people's trust and satisfaction of different governments

One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's trust and satisfaction of the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. Regarding the development of these surveys, we have explained it separately in our press releases of August 22, November 28, December 14 and 27, 2006 as well as April 3, 2007. Today, we post it again in order to give readers a complete picture of such developments.

(1) Mapping people's trust in different governments

  • Due to Hong Kong's very special political status, before the handover in 1997, our survey covered people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. After the handover, the survey method remained unchanged, but the term British Hong Kong Government was substituted by HKSAR Government, and Chinese Government was substituted by Central Government, while our survey on people's trust in the British Government stopped.

  • Our surveys began in December 1992, the wordings used in the questionnaire are "On the whole, do you trust such and such government?". Surveys were conducted once every month, until October 1997 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.

(2) Mapping people's satisfaction with the government

  • In December 1992, we started to survey people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. These surveys continued after the handover, but we expanded their scope by introducing people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government. We take measurements as frequently as we could, using our limited resources. Besides people's general satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, our survey also includes indicators on the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, improving people's livelihood, pace of democratic development, and so on.

  • Our surveys on people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government in general began in July 1997. Since then, it has been conducted once every month. The wordings used in the questionnaire are "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?".

  • Also from July 1997, we began to survey people's satisfaction with the government's performance in five policy areas using the following questions: "Are you satisfied with the performance of the HKSAR Government in maintaining economic prosperity / improving people's livelihood / developing democracy / protecting human rights and freedom / handling of its relation with the Central Government?" The frequency of these sub-indicator surveys, however, was gradually thinned down from once every month at the beginning, to once every two months between July 2000 and May 2003, and then to once every three months since July 2003, in order to match the changing social conditions.

Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set at slightly over 500, we increased it to at least 1,000 after that. The above surveys are no exceptions. The findings of these surveys are now published regularly on-line at our HKU POP Site, while all previous findings published via our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded on-line in various formats.

| Latest Figures | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of HKSAR Government) |