HKU POP SITE releases findings of the final wave of District Council pre-election surveyBack


Press Release on November 16, 2007
 

| Special Announcement | Latest Figures | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings (Final Survey on the 2007 District Councils Election) |

Special Announcement
 

(1) Sponsored by a number of media organizations, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong began its rolling poll on the Legislative Council by-election for the Hong Kong Island Geographical Constituency immediately after the close of nominations on October 31. The methodology is the same as its previous rolling polls conducted every day. According to sponsorship terms, findings are first released immediately to sponsors for exclusive use, and then uploaded onto the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) for public consumption after no less than 48 hours. Our latest round's rolling poll frequency and cross-tabulation analyses have already been uploaded online on November 15.

(2) With effective from 22 October 2007, POP has been relocated from Meng Wah Complex at the University of Hong Kong to 5/F, Kennedy Town Centre, 23 Belcher's Street, Kennedy Town, Hong Kong. The general line is changed to 3921-2700. The fax number, email address and website address remain unchanged.

Latest Figures
 

POP today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.hku.hk) the findings of the final wave of District Council pre-election survey. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2007. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:


 Date of survey  Overall sample size   Response rate  Sampling error of percentages* 
 12-15/11/2007   1,075   79.0%   +/- 3% 
* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
 

Whenever there are large-scale elections, POP would conduct regular surveys to track opinion changes. On election days, POP would also conduct exit polls to study voter behaviour and motivation. As District Council Elections draw near, our research team conducted the first, second and third rounds of pre-election telephone surveys in mid-September, late October and early November respectively, and released our findings some time ago. Released herewith are the findings of our final round of District Council pre-election telephone surveys, details of which can be found in our POP Site. Major findings regarding registered voters are summarized below, together with parallel figures obtained in the last District Council election of 2003. Findings beyond registered voters can be found in the POP Site. 

 

 

2003

2007

cf 3rd survey 2007

cf similar survey 2003

Date of survey

15-17/9

19-22/10

3-6/11

15-19/11

17-21/9

22-25/10

5-9/11

12-15/11

Sample base

714

725

721

1,157

761

801

859

877

--
--

Overall response rate

70.1%

60.0%

60.7%

65.1%

65.5%

67.4%

66.3%

79.0%

--

--

Maximum sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*

+/-4%

+/-4%

+/-4%

+/-3%

+/-4%

+/-4%

+/-3%

+/-3%

--

--

Finding for each question/ Sampling error*

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Sampling error

--

--

Proportion of voters who planned to vote in DC Election

67%

70%

75%

74%

75%

73%

76%

76%

+/-3%

--

+2%

Have decided which candidate to vote for

--

--

33%

37%

--

--

38%

47%

+/-3%

+9%

+10%

Knew which political camps are running for the election at local district

--

--

67%

71%

--

--

72%

76%

+/-3%

+4%

+5%

Main factor: past performance

40%

43%

46%

47%

43%

43%

49%

50%

+/-3%

+1%

+3%

Main factor: platform and political alignment

44%

36%

36%

35%

42%

45%

41%

36%

+/-3%

-5%

+1%

Main factor: personal background and performance during election

8%

7%

3%

3%

13%

6%

3%

3%

+/-1%

--

--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
 

Among the sub-sample of registered voters, 76% said they intended to vote. (However, please note that 76% intention to vote may not convert into 76% turnout). 47% of the registered voters have already decided which candidate to vote for. Meanwhile, 76% of the registered voters said they knew which political camps are running for the election at local district. Regarding the main factor for choosing the candidate, 50% considered a candidate's past performance to be most important. 36% opted for a candidate's platform and political alignment, while 3% considered a candidate's personal background and performance during election to be most important.

 

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, explained, "Our survey shows that as elections draw near, voters' propensity has remained very stable, exactly the same as that registered a week ago, but 2 percentage points higher than that registered in 2003 around the same time. In terms of candidate choice, however, almost half of the registered voters have already decided how to vote, which is 10 percentage points higher than that registered in 2003. This could be a positive factor to push up the turnout rate. As for the main factors affecting candidate choice, half said candidates' past performance to be most important, over one-third said their platform and political alignment are most important. The situation is almost the same as that in 2003."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be November 20, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest ratings of Top 5 members of Executive Council will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".


About HKUPOP

Final wave of District Council pre-election survey

Whenever there are large-scale elections, HKUPOP will conduct various surveys to track opinion changes. The research team will also conduct exit polls on election day to study voter behaviour and motivation. Since the handover, the research team has conducted different surveys for District Council elections (1999, 2003 and 2007), including pre-election surveys, exit polls and so on. The development of the final wave of District Council pre-election survey is as follows:

  • The "final wave of District Council pre-election survey" is conducted about one week before the District Council election. Because District Council election is usually held in November every four years, the "final wave of District Council pre-election survey" is therefore conducted in mid-November in District Council election year.

  • Questions asked in "final wave of District Council pre-election" are basically adapted from the third round survey and the question wordings used are, "Are you a registered voter?", "Do you plan to vote in the District Council election this November?", "Which political camp do you incline to identify yourself with?", "What is your main consideration in selecting a candidate?", "Have you decided to vote for which candidate?", "Do you know which political camps are running for the election at your district?" and "For the DC election in the coming November, if XXX, YYY, ZZZ, etc, other political parties and some independent candidates are sending their members to run for candidacy at your living district, which political party or independent candidate do you incline to support?" In this year, the results of the last two questions are kept for further analysis later on.

  • Before November 2003, the sample size of the "final wave of District Council pre-election survey" was set at slightly over 500. After that, it was then increased to at least 1,000 and the above survey is no exception. The survey findings of 2003 District Council election have been released via HKU POP Site.

| Special Announcement | Latest Figures | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings (Final Survey on the 2007 District Councils Election) |