HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald TsangBack
|Press Release on July 22, 2008|
The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong is now responsible for designing and maintaining the Chinese homepage of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO). WPO was initiated by and is managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, USA. At present WPO consists of research centers in 22 countries or regions. The English website of the WPO is located at http://www.worldpublicopinion.org, while its Chinese website is located at http://wpo.hkpop.hk which can be accessed via the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.hku.hk or Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform at http://www.hkpop.hk. POP will be responsible for translating WPO's research reports and press releases into Chinese, for global release.
POP interviewed 1,181 Hong Kong people between 14 and 16 July by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that after CE Donald Tsang announced his package of 10 relief measures on July 16, various popularity figures of the CE and the SAR government have significantly increased. This shows the positive effect of the package. However, if we compare the July 16 sub-sample figures with the overall figures registered in July 2 to 3, we can see that the overall effect is slight, because CE's popularity was going down between early and mid-July. POP Director Robert Chung observed, despite government's tremendous effort in delivering relief measures on the economic front, there is still no surprise in the popularity of the CE and the SAR government, after their big plunge over the past two months. There must be some kind of problems hidden deep in its governance culture. It is high time that the CE and all government think tanks search for better answers, beyond making reference to personal gains and losses. The sampling error of all percentages is below +/- 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is below +/-1.2 marks. The response rate of the survey is 64%.
Points to note:
* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,181 successful interviews, not 1,181 x 64.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is below +/-1.2 marks. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error below +/-3% at 95% confidence level for percentage figures, and +/-1.2 for rating figure".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized.
The latest survey conducted in mid-July showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 54.5 marks, and 45% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 30% were satisfied, whereas 25% were dissatisfied. Because the survey happened to concur with CE Donald Tsang's announcement of relief measures on July 16, POP therefore breaks down the figures on a daily basis to facilitate further analysis, as follows:
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.
In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.
In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from June 18 to 20, 2008 while this survey was conducted from July 14 to 16, 2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
(Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.)
The latest tracking survey was conducted by POP from July 14 to 16, accidentally right before and after CE Donald Tsang announced his over $10 billion package of 10 relief measures in the Legislative Council on July 16. POP therefore seized this unplanned opportunity to further analyze the effect of these measures on the popularity of the CE. As a matter of fact, since POP opened the feature page of "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site" in January 2007, readers can freely select their own survey items and significant events and conduct their own analysis of daily changes, in order to form their own judgment. The following is just one such example.
|News about POP|
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be July 29, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest results of subjective freedom indicators will be released.
POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk.
It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".
Again on mapping people's trust and satisfaction of different governments
One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's trust and satisfaction of the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. Regarding the development of these surveys, we have explained it separately in our press releases of August 22, November 28, December 14 and 27, 2006, April 3, July 3, September 25, October 30, November 27 and December 28, 2007, January 22, March 25, April 22, as well as June 24, 2008. Today, we post it again in order to give readers a complete picture of such developments.
(1) Mapping people's trust in different governments