HKU POP SITE releases figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong GarrisonBack

 
Press Release on December 29, 2009

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative)
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of Members of the Fourth HKSAR Legislative Council) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the Hong Kong Police Force) |


Abstract

POP interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong people between 14 and 17 December by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to 3 months ago, people's dissatisfaction with the overall performance of Legco members has surged 13 percentage points, reaching a record high since January 2005, with a net popularity of negative 29 percentage points, probably due to the incident of Kam Nai-wai and the discussions on political reform. As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with the Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison has significantly increased by 4 and 6 percentage points respectively. The net popularity of the two forces now stands at positive 55 and 63 percentage points respectively, while the dissatisfaction rate of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison continues to remain near zero. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily". It should be noted, however, that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical as well as functional constituencies. It is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance. The maximum sampling error of the survey is between +/-1 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate being 70%.

Points to note:
* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,000 successful interviews, not 1,000 x 70.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting figures of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting the decimal places, because sampling errors do not entail this kind of precision.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses 「computerized random telephone survey」 to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

 

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest figures of people's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members in general, the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison (PLA) and the Hong Kong Police Force (HKPF). As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2009. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Sampling error of percentages*

14-17/12/09

1,000

70.5%

+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

16-18/12/08

9-11/3/2009

16-21/6/09

14-17/9/09

14-17/12/09

Latest change

Sample base

1,005

1,019

1,012

1,004

1,000

--

Overall response rate

71.7%

65.2%

69.0%

65.4%

70.5%

--

Finding /Sampling error

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and Error*

--

Satisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members**

26%

21%#

21%

21%

18% +/-2%

-3%#

Dissatisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members**

29%

40%#

35%#

34%

47% +/-3%

+13%#

Satisfaction rate of HKPF**

62%#

66%#

71%#

63%#

67% +/-3%

+4%#

Dissatisfaction rate of HKPF**

15%#

12%#

7%#

13%#

12% +/-2%

-1%

Satisfaction rate of PLA**

56%

61%#

58%

59%

65% +/-3%

+6%#

Dissatisfaction rate of PLA**

2%

2%

2%

2%

2% +/-1%

--

*Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Results of survey conducted in mid-December revealed that 18% of the respondents were satisfied with the overall performance of the Legco members, and 47% were dissatisfied. As for the performance of the HKPF, 67% were satisfied while 12% were dissatisfied. Besides, 65% were satisfied with the performance of the PLA stationed in Hong Kong, whereas only 2% were dissatisfied.

 

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from September 14 to 17, 2009 while this survey was conducted from December 14 to 17, 2009. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

8/12/09

CLP to raise power tariff by 2.6%.

25/11/09

Report from Audit Commission shows poor management by Productivity Council.

24/11/09

Public widely discusses the issue of resignation of five GC legislators.

20/11/09

The government implements three new measures to enhance the transparency of the sale of uncompleted units.

18/11/09

The government publishes the Consultation Document on the Methods for Selecting the Chief Executive and for Forming the Legislative Council in 2012.

14/11/09

President Hu Jintao gives his backing for the policy direction of CE Donald Tsang's Policy Address.

22/10/09

Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen appoints two new Under Secretaries.

20/10/09

Many newspapers on the following day keep on reporting and discussing the plan of Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link.

14/10/09

Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss on the Chief Executive Donald Tsang's Policy Address.

5/10/09

Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss on the dismissal of a female assistant by Democratic Party legislator Kam Nai-wai.

1/10/09

The People's Republic of China celebrates its 60th anniversary.

22/9/09

The Government announces RTHK to continue its function as government department.

 

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「Our survey shows that compared to 3 months ago, people's dissatisfaction with the overall performance of Legco members has surged 13 percentage points, reaching a record high since January 2005, with a net popularity of negative 29 percentage points, probably due to the incident of Kam Nai-wai and the discussions on political reform. (Note: The net popularity of the SAR Government for the same period is negative 1 percentage point, as published last week.) As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with the Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison has significantly increased by 4 and 6 percentage points respectively. The net popularity of the two forces now stands at positive 55 and 63 percentage points respectively, while the dissatisfaction rate of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison continues to remain near zero. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily". It should be noted, however, that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical as well as functional constituencies. It is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance.」

Next Release (Tentative)
  • December 31, 2009 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: 2009 year-end and 2010 forecast survey
  • January 5, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Six trust and confidence indicators

 

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Next Release (Tentative)
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of Members of the Fourth HKSAR Legislative Council) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the Hong Kong Police Force) |