HKU POP SITE releases headcount results of January 1 Rally Back

 
Press Release on January 6, 2010

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted a headcount of the January 1 Rally organized by the Power for Democracy at the Walkway System on the footbridge of Central-Mid-Levels Escalator at the joint of Queen's Road Central and Cochrane Street in Central on January 1, 2010. Headcount figures showed that, excluding those who left the rally before the march arriving the checkpoint or joined the march after it, 8,774 people passed by the checkpoint. According to our previous data, it is estimated that the total number of participants of the January 1 Rally should be in between 10,000 and 12,000.

The adjustment factor was found by making reference to similar rallies out of the 20 mass demonstration headcount projects involving POP since the July 1 Rally in 2003. For more details, please refer to the 'Research on Mass Gatherings and Rallies Feature Page' at the "HKU POP SITE" (at http://hkupop.hku.hk).The following table and findings are for reference.

Herewith the table summarizes the headcount record of various mass demonstration headcount projects which POP have taken part in. POP's involvement varied each time, sometimes assisting scholars or student research team, sometimes taking part in directly. For more details, please visit the "POP SITE".

Date

Project

Hosting organization

POP's findings

1/7/2003

July 1 Rally

Civil Human Rights Front

429 - 502 thousands

1/1/2004

January 1 Rally

Civil Human Rights Front

39 - 50 thousands

4/6/2004

June 4 Vigil

Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements in China

47 - 55 thousands

1/7/2004

July 1 Rally

Civil Human Rights Front

180 - 207 thousands

1/1/2005

January 1 Rally

Defend Hong Kong's Stability Alliance

9,200 - 9,700

1/1/2005

January 1 Rally

Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions

320 - 330

23/1/2005

January 23 Rally

Civil Human Rights Front

1,200 - 1,300

4/6/2005

June 4 Vigil

Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements in China

around 36 thousands

1/7/2005

July 1 Rally

Civil Human Rights Front

20 - 24 thousands

4/12/2005

Rally for Universal Suffrage

Civil Human Rights Front

72 - 84 thousands

1/7/2006

July 1 Rally

Civil Human Rights Front

33 - 39 thousands

12/11/2006

Walk For The Harbour

Society for Protection of The Harbour Limited

390 - 460

18/3/2007

Rally for Universal Suffrage and Improving Living

Civil Human Rights Front

4,000 - 4,700

1/7/2007

July 1 Rally

Civil Human Rights Front

30 - 34 thousands

13/1/2008

Rally for Universal Suffrage in 2012

Civil Human Rights Front

10 - 12 thousands

1/7/2008

July 1 Rally

Civil Human Rights Front

16 - 19 thousands

4/6/2009

June 4 Vigil

Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements in China

108 - 132 thousands

1/7/2009*

July 1 Rally

Right to Inherent Dignity Movement Association

84 - 99

1/7/2009*

July 1 Rally

Alliance of Lehman Brothers Victims

2,600 - 3,000

1/7/2009*

July 1 Rally

Civil Human Rights Front

32 - 37 thousands

1/1/2010*

January 1 Rally

Power for Democracy

10 - 12 thousands

* The final adjusted figures of the 2009 July 1 Rally and the headcount figures of the 2010 January 1 Rally are released for the first time.

The counting process and projected figures of the 'Rally for Universal Suffrage' on December 4, 2005 are as follows. It is also the blueprint of the January 1 Rally of this year.

After the rally in 2005, POP interviewed 4,062 Hong Kong citizens aged eighteen or above between December 9, 2005 and January 20, 2006 by means of a random telephone survey and 225 said they had participated in that rally. Among them, 78.6% claimed that they had passed through the POP checkpoint and hence, the adjustment factor obtained is in between 1.18 and 1.38.

Although the nature, the route and the checkpoint of each rally may not be the same, the adjustment factor is indeed very similar with other rallies of the same type. Prior to obtaining other data, it should be applicable to this year's January 1 Rally. For more details, please refer to POP SITE.