HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

 
Press Release on August 16, 2011

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |


Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong people between August 1 and 9 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that the support ratings of CE and all three Secretaries of Departments have rebounded significantly. Donald Tsang's latest support rating is 48.3 marks. His approval rate now stands at 24%, disapproval rate at 60%, net popularity at negative 36 percentage points, and his performance remains to be "depressing". As for the three Secretaries of Departments, CS Henry Tang has a support rating of 50.0 marks, an approval rate of 34%, and a disapproval rate of 26%, his net popularity goes up from negative 1 percentage point to positive 8 percentage points. FS John Tsang has a support rating of 47.3 marks, an approval rate of 26%, a disapproval rate of 34%, and his net popularity goes up from negative 16 percentage points to negative 8 percentage points now. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 57.7 marks, approval rate 57%, disapproval rate 8%, and his net popularity goes up from positive 44 percentage points to positive 49 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 8 among the 12 Directors have gone up and 4 have gone down. Among them, 2 Directors have registered significant jumps in approval rates beyond sampling error. They include Secretary for Food and Health York Chow and Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, up by 9 and 5 percentage points respectively. Michael Suen, Stephen Lam, Tsang Tak-sing and Gregory So register negative popularity, at negative 18, 12, 3 and 1 percentage points respectively. According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung, Carrie Lam and York Chow now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Henry Tang, Tsang Tak-sing, Stephen Lam, John Tsang and Michael Suen can be labeled as "mediocre", while that of Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang "depressing". No official falls under the category of "disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 63%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,001 successful interviews, not 1,001 x 63.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

1-9/8/2011

1,001

63.4%

+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

1,300

+/- 2.8 %

1,350

+/- 2.7 %

1,200

+/- 2.9 %

1,250

+/- 2.8 %

1,100

+/- 3.0 %

1,150

+/- 3.0 %

1,000

+/- 3.2 %

1,050

+/- 3.1 %

900

+/- 3.3 %

950

+/- 3.2 %

800

+/- 3.5 %

850

+/- 3.4 %

700

+/- 3.8 %

750

+/- 3.7 %

600

+/- 4.1 %

650

+/- 3.9 %

500

+/- 4.5 %

550

+/- 4.3 %

400

+/- 5.0 %

450

+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

1-8/6/11

23-29/6/11

4-7/7/11

21-25/7/11

1-9/8/2011

Latest change

Sample base

1,000

1,036

1,005

1,004

1,001

--

Overall response rate

69.0%

68.7%

67.4%

67.1%

63.4%

--

Latest finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error[8]

--

Rating of CE Donald Tsang

46.5[9]

47.1

45.6[9]

46.0

48.3+/-1.4

+2.3[9]

Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang

23%[9]

26%

24%

23%

24+/-3%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang

66%[9]

61%[9]

64%

65%

60+/-3%

-5%[9]

Net approval rate

-43%

-35%

-40%

-42%

-36%

+6%

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey

4-12/4/11

3-10/5/11

1-8/6/11

4-7/7/11

1-9/8/2011

Latest change[10]

Sample base[10]

543-561

547-588

511-580

506-573

516-566

--

Overall response rate

68.5%

65.3%

69.0%

67.4%

63.4%

--

Latest finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error[11]

--

Ratings of CS Henry Tang

50.3

50.6

45.1[12]

46.0

50.0+/-1.8

+4.0[12]

Vote of confidence in CS Henry Tang

30%[12]

34%

29%[12]

29%

34+/-4%

+5%[12]

Vote of no confidence in CS Henry Tang

23%

24%

27%

30%

26+/-4%

-4%

Net approval rate

7%

10%

2%

-1%

8%

+9%

Ratings of FS John Tsang

46.0

45.4

45.6

44.9

47.3+/-1.7

+2.4[12]

Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang

24%[12]

25%

23%

21%

26+/-4%

+5%[12]

Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang

38%

37%

37%

37%

34+/-4%

-3%

Net approval rate

-14%

-12%

-14%

-16%

-8%

+8%

Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong

59.6[12]

59.8

59.1

55.7[12]

57.7+/-1.7

+2.0[12]

Vote of confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong

65%

66%

62%

54%[12]

57+/-4%

+3%

Vote of no confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong

4%

5%

5%

10%[12]

8+/-2%

-2%

Net approval rate

61%

61%

57%

44%

49%

+5%

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey

1-8/6/11

4-7/7/2011

1-9/8/2011

Latest Change

Total sample size[13]

502-554

509-615

506-561

--

Overall response rate

69.0%

67.4%

63.4%

--

Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer

Base

%

Base

%

Base

%& error[14]

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee

536

58%[15]

515

60%

519

62+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee

536

10%

515

11%

519

9+/-3%

-2%

Net approval rate

--

48%

--

49%

--

53%

+4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam

513

42%[15]

543

51%[15]

530

56+/-4%

+5%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam

513

20%[15]

543

11%[15]

530

12+/-3%

+1%

Net approval rate

--

22%

--

40%

--

44%

+4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow

510

47%[15]

556

43%

520

52+/-4%

+9%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow

510

24%[15]

556

28%

520

24+/-4%

-4%

Net approval rate

--

23%

--

15%

--

28%

+13%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

512

39%

518

50%[15]

521

48+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

512

19%

518

15%[15]

521

10+/-3%

-5%[15]

Net approval rate

--

20%

--

35%

--

38%

+3%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng

504

34%[15]

583

40%[15]

516

38+/-4%

-2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng

504

23%

583

24%

516

21+/-4%

-3%

Net approval rate

--

11%

--

16%

--

17%

+1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau

502

32%[15]

576

36%

544

37+/-4%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau

502

22%

576

16%[15]

544

21+/-3%

+5%[15]

Net approval rate

--

10%

--

20%

--

16%

-4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

527

36%

540

34%

507

33+/-4%

-1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

527

12%

540

13%

507

13+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

--

24%

--

21%

--

20%

-1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue

514

31%

533

29%

549

31+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue

514

13%

533

14%

549

11+/-3%

-3%

Net approval rate

--

18%

--

15%

--

20%

+5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

508

26%

615

27%

506

29+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

508

36%

615

37%

506

32+/-4%

-5%[15]

Net approval rate

--

-11%

--

-10%

--

-3%

+7%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam

554

25%[15]

530

24%

545

26+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam

554

34%[15]

530

41%[15]

545

38+/-4%

-3%

Net approval rate

--

-9%

--

-17%

--

-12%

+5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen

515

15%[15]

509

20%[15]

548

24+/-4%

+4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen

515

54%[15]

509

50%

548

42+/-4%

-8%[15]

Net approval rate

--

-39%

--

-30%

--

-18%

+12%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So[16]

--

--

554

22%

561

19+/-3%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

--

--

554

20%

561

20+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

--

--

--

2%

--

-1%

-3%

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] Gregory So was appointed the post of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development on June 28.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 48.3 marks, and 24% supported him as the Chief Executive, his net approval rate is negative 36%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 50.0, 47.3 and 57.7 marks, and 34%, 26% and 57% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 8%, negative 8% and positive 49% respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, attaining 62%. His net approval rate is positive 53%. The 2nd to 3rd places belonged to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, with approval rate 56% and 52% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 44% and 28% respectively. Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam, Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So ranked 4th to 12th, as they gained 48%, 38%, 37%, 33%, 31%, 29%, 26%, 24% and 19% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 38%, positive 17%, positive 16%, positive 20%, positive 20%, negative 3%, negative 12%, negative 18% and negative 1%. In other words, only Ambrose Lee, Carrie Lam and York Chow scored approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from July 4 to 7, 2011 while this survey was conducted from August 1 to 9, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

9/8/11

The price of the luxury site in Kau To Shan was far below market expectation.

8/8/11

Global stock markets slid to their lowest level in recent years.

27/7/11

Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office director Wang Guangya commented on the governing ability of Hong Kong civil servant.

15/7/11

Donald Tsang speaking at his Legislative Council question-and-answer session.

11/7/11

Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office director Wang Guangya talked about the conditions for the next Chief Executive of Hong Kong.

4/7/11

Government announces to postpone the vote on the bill to scrap by-elections.



Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our latest survey shows that the support ratings of CE and all three Secretaries of Departments have rebounded significantly. Donald Tsang's latest support rating is 48.3 marks. His approval rate now stands at 24%, disapproval rate at 60%, net popularity at negative 36 percentage points, and his performance remains to be "depressing".

As for the three Secretaries of Departments, CS Henry Tang has a support rating of 50.0 marks, an approval rate of 34%, and a disapproval rate of 26%, his net popularity goes up from negative 1 percentage point to positive 8 percentage points. FS John Tsang has a support rating of 47.3 marks, an approval rate of 26%, a disapproval rate of 34%, and his net popularity goes up from negative 16 percentage points to negative 8 percentage points now. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 57.7 marks, approval rate 57%, disapproval rate 8%, and his net popularity goes up from positive 44 percentage points to positive 49 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 8 among the 12 Directors have gone up and 4 have gone down. Among them, 2 Directors have registered significant jumps in approval rates beyond sampling error. They include Secretary for Food and Health York Chow and Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, up by 9 and 5 percentage points respectively. Michael Suen, Stephen Lam, Tsang Tak-sing and Gregory So register negative popularity, at negative 18, 12, 3 and 1 percentage points respectively.

According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung, Carrie Lam and York Chow now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Henry Tang, Tsang Tak-sing, Stephen Lam, John Tsang and Michael Suen can be labeled as "mediocre", while that of Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang "depressing". No official falls under the category of "disastrous".

The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

None

 

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong (62%); SJ Wong Yan-lung (57%); Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (56%); Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok (52%)

 

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (48%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah (38%); Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah (37%); CS Henry Tang Ying-yen (34%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (29%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung (26%[17]); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (26%[17]); Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung (24%)

 

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (33%, 46%); Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee (31%, 42%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (19%, 38%)

 

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen (60%)

 

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

None

[17] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung is 26.3% while the approval rate of FS John Tsang Chun-wah is 25.7%.


Future Release (Tentative)

  • August 23, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Freedom, social and legal indicators

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |