HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

 
Press Release on December 13, 2011

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |


Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,009 Hong Kong people between December 1 to 5 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang has gone up somewhat. His support rating now stands at 50.2 marks, approval rate at 26%, disapproval rate at 65%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, compared to a month ago, the popularity of all three Secretaries have gone down. CS Stephen Lam's latest support rating is 38.5 marks, approval rate 16%, disapproval rate 39%, giving a net popularity of negative 23 percentage points, worse than what he had when he took up the post. FS John Tsang has a support rating of 51.0 marks, approval rate 33%, disapproval rate 26%, and his net popularity at positive 7 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 59.4 marks, approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 7%, and his net popularity stands at positive 47 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, except the approval rate of Secretary for Development Carrie Lam remains unchanged, the approval rate of all other 11 Directors have gone down. Those registered significant drops in approval rates beyond sampling error include Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So and Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, down by 7, 7 and 6 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Tsang Tak-sing and Michael Suen register negative popularity, at negative 10 and 23 percentage points respectively. Carrie Lam continues to be the most popular Director, unaffected by the recent dispute over village houses. According to POP's standard and counting only incumbents, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer. Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee and Wong Yan-lung now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, York Chow, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, John Tsang, Tsang Tak-sing, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", that of Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue, Raymond Tam and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang "depressing". No official falls under the category of "disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,009 successful interviews, not 1,009 x 67.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.1 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2011. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

1-5/12/2011

1,009

67.7%

+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

1,300

+/- 2.8 %

1,350

+/- 2.7 %

1,200

+/- 2.9 %

1,250

+/- 2.8 %

1,100

+/- 3.0 %

1,150

+/- 3.0 %

1,000

+/- 3.2 %

1,050

+/- 3.1 %

900

+/- 3.3 %

950

+/- 3.2 %

800

+/- 3.5 %

850

+/- 3.4 %

700

+/- 3.8 %

750

+/- 3.7 %

600

+/- 4.1 %

650

+/- 3.9 %

500

+/- 4.5 %

550

+/- 4.3 %

400

+/- 5.0 %

450

+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

12/10/11

13-20/10/11

31/10-9/11/11

15-21/11/11

1-5/12/2011

Latest change

Sample base

1,032

1,013

1,002

1,023

1,009

--

Overall response rate

65.6%

71.8%

64.8%

69.7%

67.7%

--

Latest finding

Finding[9]

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error [8]

--

Rating of CE Donald Tsang

50.6[10]

47.9[10]

48.7

49.8

50.2+/-1.3

+0.4

Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang

25%

25%

29%[10]

24%[10]

26+/-3%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang

66%

65%

61%[10]

67%[10]

65+/-3%

-2%

Net approval rate

-41%

-40%

-32%

-43%

-39%

+4%

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting were 770 and 843 respectively.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey

1-9/8/11

29/8-6/9/11

26/9-4/10/11

31/10-9/11/11

1-5/12/2011

Latest change [11]

Sample base[10]

516-566

560-628

509-673

526-579

516-542

--

Overall response rate

63.4%

64.6%

66.1%

64.8%

67.7%

--

Latest finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error [12]

--

Ratings of CS Stephen Lam[13]

--

--

38.5

40.4

38.5+/-2.1

-1.9

Vote of confidence in CS Stephen Lam[13]

--

--

20%

22%

16+/-3%

-6%[14]

Vote of no confidence in CS Stephen Lam[13]

--

--

36%

32%

39+/-4%

+7%[14]

Net approval rate[13]

--

--

-16%

-10%

-23%

-13%

Ratings of FS John Tsang

47.3[14]

49.6[14]

50.2

51.7

51.0+/-1.7

-0.7

Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang

26%[14]

33%[14]

39%[14]

35%

33+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang

34%

27%[14]

23%[14]

20%

26+/-4%

+6%[14]

Net approval rate

-8%

6%

16%

15%

7%

-8%

Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong

55.7[14]

58.2

59.5

60.6

59.4+/-1.5

-1.2

Vote of confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong

54%[14]

58%

61%

63%

54+/-4%

-9%[14]

Vote of no confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong

10%[14]

9%

6%[14]

3%[14]

7+/-2%

+4%[14]

Net approval rate

44%

49%

55%

60%

47%

-13%

[11] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.1, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[13] The Government announced the appointment of former Secretary of Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam as the Chief Secretary on September 30.
[14] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey

26/9-4/10/11

31/10-9/11/11

1-5/12/2011

Latest Change

Total sample size[15]

509-673

526-570

505-579

--

Overall response rate

66.1%

64.8%

67.7%

--

Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer

Base

%

Base

%

Base

% Finding & error [16]

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam

537

61%

550

62%

527

62+/-4%

--

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam

537

10%

550

10%

527

10+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

--

51%

--

52%

--

52%

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee

666

57%[18]

554

61%

511

55+/-4%

-6%[18]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee

666

13%[18]

554

12%

511

13+/-3%

+1%

Net approval rate

--

44%

--

49%

--

42%

-7%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

637

51%

537

51%

509

48+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

637

12%

537

10%

509

14+/-3%

+4%[18]

Net approval rate

--

39%

--

41%

--

34%

-7%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow

514

53%

552

49%

506

47+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow

514

19%[18]

552

23%

506

26+/-4%

+3%

Net approval rate

--

34%

--

26%

--

21%

-5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng

584

49%[18]

544

50%

579

46+/-4%

-4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng

584

15%[18]

544

17%

579

14+/-3%

-3%

Net approval rate

--

34%

--

33%

--

32%

-1%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

588

36%

526

41%[18]

532

39+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

588

11%

526

7%[18]

532

11+/-3%

+4%[18]

Net approval rate

--

25%

--

34%

--

28%

-6%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau

569

45%[18]

538

43%

507

36+/-4%

-7%[18]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau

569

17%

538

14%

507

18+/-3%

+4%[18]

Net approval rate

--

28%

--

29%

--

18%

-11%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue

667

38%[18]

550

35%

558

31+/-4%

-4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue

667

8%

550

7%

558

10+/-3%

+3%

Net approval rate

--

30%

--

28%

--

21%

-7%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam[17]

509

31%

570

27%

522

25+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam[17]

509

7%

570

7%

522

9+/-2%

+2%

Net approval rate[17]

--

24%

--

20%

--

16%

-4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

600

32%

548

27%[18]

505

23+/-4%

-4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

600

29%

548

28%

505

33+/-4%

+5%[18]

Net approval rate

--

3%

--

-1%

--

-10%

-9%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen

637

28%

550

25%

539

22+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen

637

43%

550

43%

539

45+/-4%

+2%

Net approval rate

--

-15%

--

-18%

--

-23%

-5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

639

25%[18]

534

22%

532

15+/-3%

-7%[18]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

639

15%

534

12%

532

15+/-3%

+3%

Net approval rate

--

10%

--

10%

--

0%

-10%

[15] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[16] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[17] The government announced the appointment of Raymond Tam as the new Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs on September 30.
[18] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 50.2 marks, and 26% supported him as the Chief Executive, his net approval rate is negative 39%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Stephen Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 38.5, 51.0 and 59.4 marks, and 16%, 33% and 54% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are negative 23%, positive 7% and positive 47% respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, attaining 62%. Her net approval rate is positive 52%. The 2nd to 5th places belonged to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Food and Health York Chow and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, with approval rates 55%, 48%, 47% and 46% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 42%, 34%, 21% and 32% respectively. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So ranked 6th to 12th, as they gained 39%, 36%, 31%, 25%, 23%, 22% and 15% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 28%, positive 18%, positive 21%, positive 16%, negative 10%, negative 23% and 0%. In other words, only Carrie Lam and Ambrose Lee scored approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from October 31 to November 9, 2011 while this survey was conducted from December 1 to 5, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

4/12/11

ICAC investigates the suspected vote-rigging case happened in the District Council Election.

30/11/11

9 people died and 34 were injured in a fire that broke out in hawker stalls in Fa Yuen Street in Mong Kok.

29/11/11

Tuen Mun Hospital has been hit by a series of blunders in the past seven months.

27/11/11

Leung Chun-ying announced he will be a candidate in next year's Chief Executive Election.

26/11/11

Henry Tang announced he will be a candidate in next year's Chief Executive Election.

17/11/11

Henry Tang and Leung Chun-ying said the announcement of their candidacy for next year's Chief Executive Election will
be made at the end of this month.

12/11/11

President Hu Jintao has reminded the SAR Government to get prepared for financial crisis.

7/11/11

The 2011 District Council election cumulative turnout rate of about 41.4%.

6/11/11

About 1.2 million registered electors have cast their votes in the 2011 District Council election.



Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang has gone up somewhat. His support rating now stands at 50.2 marks, approval rate at 26%, disapproval rate at 65%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, compared to a month ago, the popularity of all three Secretaries have gone down. CS Stephen Lam's latest support rating is 38.5 marks, approval rate 16%, disapproval rate 39%, giving a net popularity of negative 23 percentage points, worse than what he had when he took up the post. FS John Tsang has a support rating of 51.0 marks, approval rate 33%, disapproval rate 26%, and his net popularity at positive 7 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 59.4 marks, approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 7%, and his net popularity stands at positive 47 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, except the approval rate of Secretary for Development Carrie Lam remains unchanged, the approval rate of all other 11 Directors have gone down. Those registered significant drops in approval rates beyond sampling error include Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So and Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, down by 7, 7 and 6 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Tsang Tak-sing and Michael Suen register negative popularity, at negative 10 and 23 percentage points respectively. Carrie Lam continues to be the most popular Director, unaffected by the recent dispute over village houses.

According to POP's standard and counting only incumbents, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer. Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee and Wong Yan-lung now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, York Chow, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, John Tsang, Tsang Tak-sing, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", that of Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue, Raymond Tam and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang "depressing". No official falls under the category of "disastrous".

The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

None

 

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (62%); Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong (55%); SJ Wong Yan-lung (54%);

 

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (48%); Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok (47%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah (46%); Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah (36%); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (33%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (23%); Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung (22%); CS Stephen Lam Sui-lung (16%)

 

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (39%, 49%); Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee (31%, 41%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (25%, 34%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (15%, 30%)

 

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen (65%)

 

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

None



Future Release (Tentative)

  • December 20, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Latest trust and confidence indicators, survey on Taiwan issues

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |