HKU POP releases the follow-up poll of Chief Executive electionBack

 
Press Release on April 10, 2012

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysiss | Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive) |


Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,019 Hong Kong people between 27 and 30 March 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that people's support rating of CE-designate Leung Chun-ying shortly after the CE election is 51.5 marks. His approval rate stands at 38%, disapproval rate at 51%, giving a net popularity of negative 13 percentage points. Nearly 40% believes Leung Chun-ying has faced the general public during the election process, but nearly 60% are dissatisfied with this year's election process, much higher than that of 1996, 2005 and 2007. As for people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, most people think that Leung's success in the election has no effect on their confidence. This is similar to 1996 and 2007. When Donald Tsang succeeded CH Tung as the Chief Executive, 81% believed Tsang would do a better job. Now that Leung will replace Tsang, the percentage of those thinking Leung would do a better job than Tsang is only 47%. Further analysis shows that older people are more supportive of Leung as CE, and are more satisfied with this year's election process. All in all, probably due to people's changing expectation, people seem more critical of this year's CE election than in the past. In terms of popularity, Leung is having a difficult start. Whether he could beat the tide remains to be seen. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 63%.

 

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,019 successful interviews, not 1,019 x 63.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.



Latest Figures

Same as in previous years, POP conducts a follow-up survey right after the CE election has ended. The main purpose is to gauge the popularity of CE-designate Leung Chun-ying, measure the general public's appraisal of the CE election, and compare the figures with those held in four similar surveys (i.e. in 1996, 2005, 2007 and 2012), in order to pin down the merits and demerits of this year's election. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end.

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

27-30/3/12

1,019

63.4%

+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

 

The popularity figures of the Chief Executive-Designate Leung Chun-ying shortly after the CE election are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

27-30/3/12

Sample base

1,019

Overall response rate

63.4%

Finding

Finding and error [7]

Support rating of CE-designate Leung Chun-ying

51.5+/-1.7

Support Leung Chun-ying as CE

38+/-3%

Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE

51+/-3%

Net approval rate

-13%

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.

 

The latest survey showed that, CE-designate Leung Chun-ying scored 51.5 marks, and 38% supported him as CE. The results of other related issues are as follows:

Date of survey

11/12/96

20-23/6/05

26-30/3/07

27-30/3/12

Sample base

1,301

1,026

509

1,019

Overall response rate

65.3%

61.9%

62.8%

63.4%

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error [8]

1996: Has Tung's winning affected your confidence in the future of Hong Kong?
2005 and 2007: Has Donald Tsang's success in the CE election increased or reduced your confidence in the future of Hong Kong?
2012: Has Leung Chun-ying's success in the CE election increased or reduced your confidence in the future of Hong Kong?

Confidence in HK's future increased

12%

52%

31%

20+/-3%

No effect/change in confidence in HK's future

73%

42%

59%

47+/-3%

Confidence in HK's future reduced

4%

1%

5%

28+/-3%

1996: In your view, will CH Tung as the CE do a better or worse job than Chris Patten as the Governor?
2005: In your view, will Donald Tsang do a better or worse job than CH Tung as the CE?
2012: In your view, will Leung Chun-ying do a better or worse job than Donald Tsang as the CE?

Better

40%

81%

--

47+/-3%

More or less the same

15%

11%

--

19+/-2%

Worse

9%

<1%

--

20+/-3%

1996: Are you satisfied with the selection process of the first CE?
2005, 2007 and 2012: Are you satisfied with the whole CE election process?

Satisfied[9]

39%

36%

44%

23+/-3%

Half-half

15%

22%

29%

15+/-2%

Dissatisfied [9]

31%

30%

22%

59+/-3%

2005 and 2007: Do you think Donald Tsang has faced the general public during the election process?

2012: Do you think Leung Chun-ying has faced the general public during the election process?

Yes

--

37%

50%

39+/-3%

Half-half

--

22%

22%

16+/-2%

No

--

30%

20%

37+/-3%

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

 

Results show that 20% of the respondents believed that Leung Chun-ying's success in the CE election has increased their confidence in the future of Hong Kong, whereas 28% said their confidence reduced and 47% said no change. 47% expected that Leung Chun-ying would do a better job than Donald Tsang as the CE, 20% thought it would be worse, while another 19% opted for "more or less the same". As for the whole CE election process, 23% and 59% expressed satisfaction and dissatisfaction with the process respectively. Finally, 39% of the respondents thought that Leung Chun-ying has faced the general public during the election process, whereas 37% held the opposite view.

 



Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of vote of confidence in Leung Chun-ying as CE and people's satisfaction towards the whole CE election process by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 27-30/3/2012

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall sample

Support/oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE[10]

Support

25+/-6%
(48)

39+/-5%
(152)

43+/-5%
(184)

38+/-3%
(384)

Oppose

71+/-7%
(136)

50+/-5%
(197)

43+/-5%
(183)

51+/-3%
(515)

Don't know/ Hard to say

4+/-3%
(8)

11+/-3%
(42)

14+/-3%
(58)

11+/-2%
(108)

Total

100%
(192)

100%
(391)

100%
(425)

100%
(1,007)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

 

Date of survey: 27-30/3/2012

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall sample

Satisfaction / dissatisfaction rate of the
CE election process[11]

Satisfied

14+/-5%
(28)

20+/-4%
(77)

30+/-4%
(127)

23+/-3%
(232)

Half-half

16+/-5%
(31)

16+/-4%
(62)

14+/-3%
(58)

15+/-2%
(151)

Dissatisfied

68+/-7%
(130)

63+/-5%
(247)

50+/-5%
(213)

59+/-3%
(590)

Don't know/ Hard to say

2+/-2%
(3)

1+/-1%
(5)

6+/-2%
(26)

3+/-1%
(35)

Total

100%
(192)

100%
(391)

100%
(425)

100%
(1,007)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.


Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that people's support rating of CE-designate Leung Chun-ying shortly after the CE election is 51.5 marks. His approval rate stands at 38%, disapproval rate at 51%, giving a net popularity of negative 13 percentage points. Nearly 40% believes Leung Chun-ying has faced the general public during the election process, but nearly 60% are dissatisfied with this year's election process, much higher than that of 1996, 2005 and 2007. As for people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, most people think that Leung's success in the election has no effect on their confidence. This is similar to 1996 and 2007. When Donald Tsang succeeded CH Tung as the Chief Executive, 81% believed Tsang would do a better job. Now that Leung will replace Tsang, the percentage of those thinking Leung would do a better job than Tsang is only 47%. Further analysis shows that older people are more supportive of Leung as CE, and are more satisfied with this year's election process. All in all, probably due to people's changing expectation, people seem more critical of this year's CE election than in the past. In terms of popularity, Leung is having a difficult start. Whether he could beat the tide remains to be seen."



Future Releases (Tentative)
  • April 12, 2012 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 cross-strait political figures

  • April 17, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials


| Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysiss | Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive) |