HKU POP releases Legislative Council election survey for the fourth timeBack

 
Press Release on September 7, 2012

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |


Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 14,775 registered voters in between August 1 to September 5, 2012 by means of random telephone surveys separately conducted by real interviewers. As of September 5, our Legislative Council rolling poll shows that voters’ propensity to vote has continued to rise over the past week, and passed the 2008 level, getting close to the 2004 figure. As for the stray votes, it has been leveling up steadily in the final stage, and some voters are seemingly thinking of how to split their votes. The main body and additional charts of this press release have accounted in detail the supporting rate, sampling error as well as the prediction of the winning chance of each candidate. Please note that this rolling survey lacks two days of data which will be announced by the sponsoring media tomorrow. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. The effective response rate of the rolling survey is 69%.


Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.hku.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of LC election rolling survey is 14,775 successful interviews, not 14,775 x 69.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages of survey is +/-3 percentage point at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

 

 

 



Latest Figures

Whenever there are large-scale elections, POP would conduct regular surveys to track opinion changes. On election days, POP would also conduct exit polls to study voter behaviour and motivation. Sponsored surveys will be used exclusively by sponsors first, and then uploaded online for public consumption after the election. Unsponsored surveys will be released to the general public immediately after they are conducted. On August 14, 23 and September 5, POP made the first three public releases respectively, today is the fourth one, with the following contact information. All figures have been weighted according to the distribution of age, gender and geographic constituency of registered voters in the 2012 electoral roll provided by the Registration and Electoral Office:

 

Date of survey

Overall sample size
(registered voters)

Effective response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

1/8-5/9/2012

14,775

69.4%

+/-1%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

 

Three findings of this rolling survey are summarized below, together with parallel figures obtained in the last Legislative Council elections of 2004 and 2008 for the first two findings:

 

1. Propensity to vote (Territory-wide)


[7] The “survey date” shown in the above table only applies to 2012. Findings from the 2004 and 2008 surveys are syncrhonized using the election count-down date.

 

Survey revealed that the propensity to vote in general falls within the range of 81% to 88%. It started with 84% in early August, then rose to 88% in mid-August, followed by dropping to as low as 81% in late-August and finally rebounded to 85% recently. If to compare with 2004 and 2008, the fluctuations seems to be more significant this year.

 

2. Percentage of stray votes

 

Since many voters still have not decided how to cast their vote, while stray voters would always have significant influence on the election result, POP therefore further looked into the distribution of these votes in each constituency. In this analysis, “stray votes” is defined as likely voters who have not decided how they would vote.


Hong Kong Island GC

[8] The “survey date” shown in the above table only applies to 2012. Findings from the 2004 and 2008 surveys are syncrhonized using the election count-down date.

 

Kowloon West GC

[9] The “survey date” shown in the above table only applies to 2012. Findings from the 2004 and 2008 surveys are syncrhonized using the election count-down date.


Kowloon East GC

[10] The “survey date” shown in the above table only applies to 2012. Findings from the 2004 and 2008 surveys are syncrhonized using the election count-down date.

 

New Territories West GC

[11] The “survey date” shown in the above table only applies to 2012. Findings from the 2004 and 2008 surveys are syncrhonized using the election count-down date.


New Territories East GC

[12] The “survey date” shown in the above table only applies to 2012. Findings from the 2004 and 2008 surveys are syncrhonized using the election count-down date.

 

District Council (Second) Functional Constituency

Similar to what happened in 2004 and 2008, the percentage of stray votes in this year falls within 20% to 30% up to now in various GCs. Among them, the percentage was as high as 35% for once in New Territories East GC.

 

3. Candidate strength in each constituency

 

Hong Kong Island GC
c

 

Kowloon West GC
c

 

Kowloon East GC

 

New Territories West GC

 

New Territories East GC

 

District Council (Second) Functional Constituency

 

The number of seats of this year’s Legislative Council election has increased and the highest balance method of proportional representation turned out to be on the basis of “multiple-seat, single vote” in disguise, encouraging political groups to split their lists in election, allowing multiple lists to be elected with lower threshold of votes using electioneering. Since political groups are splitting their lists, making the votes scattered, the supporting rates of the candidate lists are low across the board, hence the concept of error has become relatively important. Analysis shows that the situation of the 5 GCs is pretty competitive. According to the latest 5-day rolling survey, the situation of the 5 GCs and the District Council (second) functional constituency is as follows: [13]

 

 

Hong Kong Island
High odds: Kenneth Chan; Higher chances: Jasper Tsang; Equal chances: Regina Ip, Christopher Lau, Sin Chung Kai, Christopher Chung, Cyd Ho, Tanya Chan, Wong Kwok Hing, Lo Wing Lok, Miriam Lau

 

Kowloon West
High odds: Helena Wong, Wong Yuk Man, Ann Chiang; Higher chances: Claudia Mo; Equal Chances: Leung Mei Fun, Tam Kwok Kiu

 

Kowloon East
High odds: Alan Leong; Higher chances: Chan Kam Lam, Wong Kwok Kin, Wu Chi Wai; Equal Chances: Wong Yeung Tat, Paul Tse, Andrew To

 

New Territories West
High odds: Kwok Ka Ki, Tam Yiu Chung, Lee Cheuk Yan, Leung Yiu Chung: Equal chances: Michael Tien, Lee Wing Tat, Albert Chan, Alice Mak, Josephine Chan, Chan Han Pan, Audrey Eu, Chan Yut Wah, Leung Che Cheung, Junius Ho

 

New Territories East
High odds: Leung Kwok Hung; Higher chances: Emily Lau, Raymond Chan; Equal chances: Chan Hak Kan, James Tien, Ronny Tong, Christine Fong, Elizabeth Quat, Ip Wai Ming, Fernando Cheung, Scarlett Pong, Gary Fan, Wong Sing Chi, Richard Tsoi

 

District Council (Second) Functional Constituency
High odds: Chan Yuen Han, James To, Albert Ho, Frederick Fung; Equal chances: Starry Lee, Lau Kong Wah

 

 

 



Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

 

As of September 5, our Legislative Council rolling poll shows that voters’ propensity to vote has continued to rise over the past week, and passed the 2008 level, getting close to the 2004 figure. As for the stray votes, it has been leveling up steadily in the final stage, and some voters are seemingly thinking of how to split their votes. The main body and additional charts of this press release have accounted in detail the supporting rate, sampling error as well as the prediction of the winning chance of each candidate. Please note that this rolling survey lacks two days of data which will be announced by the sponsoring media tomorrow.



Future Releases (Tentative)

  • September 10, 2012 (Monday) 1pm to 2pm: Results of Legislative Council election survey

  • September 11, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials


| Abstract | Latest Figures | Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |