Opinion Survey on Constitutional Reform of Hong Kong November-December 2005Back

Date of Release: December 4, 2005
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung
(Director of Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong)
Although nearly 45% of the respondents accepted the government's reform package, more of them would like to see a timetable for universal suffrage included. Nevertheless, if the government insists on not including it, only less than 30% of the respondents would like to have the government package voted down. In other words, people accepts a package without timetable, but it would become a win-win situation if a timetable could be included.
The survey indicates that most people believe condition is ripe for introducing universal suffrage in Hong Kong. On the election of CE, 27% opted for "sooner the better" or 2007, and 61% on accumulative count believe it should be introduced no later than 2012, and is certainly the main stream demand. On the election of Legco members, 37% opt for "sooner the better" or 2008, and 63% on accumulative count believe it should be introduced no later than 2012, a figure higher than that for CE election. As for people's propensity to demonstrate on December 4, the figure now stands higher than that of July 1 Rally this year and gets closer to that of last year. According to the headcount conducted by the Hong Kong University Student Research Team, about 200 thousand people took to the street on July 1 last year. Using this figure as the base, and assuming that nothing dramatic happens in the last two days, it would not be a surprise to find many many more people taking to the street on 4 December, than the official estimate of 50 thousand.