Exit Poll of 2003 District Council ElectionBack

Survey Method

  Information collection

Around one and a half month ago (around early October), POP began to collect information such as the constituency boundary maps, location of polling stations, population of different geographical constituencies, number of registered voters, as well as background of candidates, for future analysis and selection of stations. On the other hand, the research team also complied and filed, on a daily basis, the news and commentaries in relation to the elections, for internal reference.

  Selection of polling stations

Of the 400 geographical constituencies, having set aside 74 uncontested constituencies, the remaining 326 ones needed further selections. The research team first picked, after discussing with the sponsors (Cable TV, TVB and ATV), 8 core constituencies, namely, Peak, Kwun Lung, Kam Ping, Mei Foo South, Ping Shek, Lok Tsui, Fo Tan and Tai Shui Hang, for the poll. Then, from the remaining 318 constituencies, having considered factors like candidates' popularity, media attention, research value, and prior records, 20 general constituencies, namely, Aldrich Bay, King Yee, Lok Hong, Charming, Mong Kok West, Lai Kok, Hoi Sham, Lung Sheung, King Fu, Shun Tin, Ting On, Lai Hing, Cheung Wah, Choi Yuen, Tai Po Central, Po Nga, Kam To, On Yam, Kwai Fong and Lai Wah, were also selected for conducting exit polls at POP's own expense. In other words, a total of 28 polling stations were selected, with 8 core stations and 20 general stations.

  Operation of exit polls

A systematic sampling method was employed, and voters were sampled according to prescribed time segments and selection procedures, all at the exit of the polling stations. Data was either recorded with electronic palms or written down by interviewers. Figures were reported to the headquarters regularly. All figures were adjusted in accordance with the actual voting results at last. The analysis of voter behaviour included breakdown figures of voters' gender, age, marital status, education attainment, occupation and religious background, as well as the influence of July 1 Demonstration.